基于流域单元的环巢湖综合景观对河流水质的影响

考虑流域特征差异对河流水质的影响,以巢湖流域为研究对象,根据2019年10月至2020年9月河流监测点水质、气象、地形、土壤与遥感影像等数据,通过数字地形分析划分各监测点的流域单元,综合利用相关性分析、冗余分析以及多元回归分析探究了流域单元的综合景观特征（包括土地利用、气候、地形、土壤等）对环巢湖河流水质的影响.结果表明:①环巢湖河流水质空间差异大,主要污染物为总氮与氨氮,大多数河流总氮浓度超过Ⅴ类水质标准,污染严重的区域集中在合肥市区及周边河流以及丰乐河和杭埠河中下游.②流域单元综合景观特征对河流水质有着显著性影响.其中,建筑用地比例、斑块密度、散布与并列指数、香农多样性指数与水质指标呈正相关,而林草地比例、蔓延度指数与水质指标呈负相关.③在不同季节,流域单元的综合景观特征在湿季对河流水质的影响效应要强于干季,这主要是由干湿季降水的差异引起的.     

Maximum likelihood fitting of the Poisson lognormal distribution

In this paper some properties and analytic expressions regarding the Poisson lognormal distribution such as moments, maximum likelihood function and related derivatives are discussed. The author provides a sharp approximation of the integrals related to the Poisson lognormal probabilities and analyzes the choice of the initial values in the fitting procedure. Based on these he describes a new procedure for carrying out the maximum likelihood fitting of the truncated Poisson lognormal distribution. The method and results are illustrated on real data. The computer program for calculations is freely available.

Linking Terrestrial and Marine Conservation Planning and Threats Analysis

Abstract:  The existence of the Gulf of Mexico dead zone makes it clear that marine ecosystems can be damaged by terrestrial inputs. Marine and terrestrial conservation planning need to be aligned in an explicit fashion to fully represent threats to marine systems. To integrate conservation planning for terrestrial and marine systems, we used a novel threats assessment that included 5 cross-system threats in a site-prioritization exercise for the Pacific Northwest coast ecoregion (U.S.A.). Cross-system threats are actions or features in one ecological realm that have effects on species in another realm. We considered bulkheads and other forms of shoreline hardening threats to terrestrial systems and roads, logging, agriculture, and urban areas threats to marine systems. We used 2 proxies of freshwater influence on marine environments, validated against a mechanistic model and field observations, to propagate land-based threats into marine sites. We evaluated the influence of cross-system threats on conservation priorities by comparing MARXAN outputs for 3 scenarios that identified terrestrial and marine priorities simultaneously: (1) no threats, (2) single-system threats, and (3) single- and cross-system threats. Including cross-system threats changed the threat landscape dramatically. As a result the best plan that included only single-system threats identified 323 sites (161,500 ha) at risk from cross-system threats. Including these threats changed the location of best sites. By comparing the best and sum solutions of the single- and cross-system scenarios, we identified areas ideal for preservation or restoration through integrated management. Our findings lend quantitative support to the call for explicitly integrated decision making and management action in terrestrial and marine ecosystems.     

Risk management and integrated assessment

Integrated Assessment (IA) is the pursuit of a research program generated by the limitations of traditional forms of risk management. This claim can be justified by the following argument. Over the last decades, analysts and practitioners have brought to maturity a large array of tools for risk management. Most of them rely on combining judgments of utility with judgments of probability. This is the approach of the Rational Actor Paradigm (RAP). With many environmental problems, however, RAP‐based tools have run into considerable practical and theoretical difficulties. In response to these difficulties, a series of alternative approaches to practical risk management and to the theoretical understanding of risk have been elaborated. They try to embed the rational choices of individual actors studied by RAP into a broader framework of social rationality. This task can be approached by distinguishing situations where an actor holds unambiguous judgments of preference and probability from situations characterized by ambivalent judgments. RAP can handle the former, but not the latter. Problems whose management requires a combination of widely differing scientific disciplines are especially likely to involve ambivalent judgments of probability. The study of such problems constitutes the research program of integrated assessment. It involves three main tasks: developing IA models which can represent ambivalent expectations and evaluations, developing IA models which use such representations to study non‐marginal changes of social systems, and developing procedures of participatory IA which enable researchers to engage in an iterative exchange with various stakeholders. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Identification of Priority Areas for Integrated Management of Semiarid Watersheds in the Ecuadorian Andes

Integrated watershed management (IWM) is a priority, especially in semiarid regions that are concurrently affected by population growth, land use change, soil erosion, and poor governance. In developing countries, IWM is often done without any support tool, scientific data, or deep knowledge of territory characteristics. The aim of this study was to present a case study to apply a decision support tool to prioritize areas for territory management. A simple, quantitative multi‐criteria analysis was applied in a semiarid basin of the Ecuadorian Andes to identify the zones of greatest concern for implementation of resource conservation and management practices at a local and regional scale. In addition to describing the current state of the conditions of this basin, our results suggest scenarios of change in relation to official population projections based on spatial analysis of land use change. Analysis resulted in a scattered distribution of priority values within the watershed, so a hierarchical rule was incorporated to define priorities at the subwatershed (SW) scale. Our analysis identified four SW of very high priority and urgent need to implement management practices. Based on projections of future change due to population growth and land cover change, the number of subbasins that require more attention was doubled. Finally, this study includes zones for management or conservation of the land, according to the Sustainable Development Goals.     

基于不同卫星降雨产品的澴水花园流域径流模拟比较研究

卫星降雨产品作为缺资料或无资料地区估算流域降雨径流的一种途径,适用性尚需大量实验研究。以澴水花园流域为研究区,综合评估了TRMM(3B42V7)、TRMM_RT(3B42V7)、PERSIANN CDR和CMORPH 4个卫星降雨产品在流域平均雨量计算与径流模拟中的精度,设置多方案与多种水文模拟情景全面检验各降雨产品的可靠性与适用性。研究表明：(1)在研究期2002~2013年,没有一个卫星降雨产品对所有精度评价指标均表现最优,PERSIANN始终表现为最差;(2)各卫星降雨产品对于不同年代和不同统计时段的精度差异明显,且一般汛期精度高于全年精度。各年代精度最高的卫星降雨产品在年与汛期尺度上与实测雨量相关系数均超过0.9;(3)各卫星降雨产品对有雨日降雨探测能力较强,但空报率较高,所有卫星降雨产品对于年最大1 d、3 d和7 d降雨估算误差较大,无法达到可利用精度;(4)采用卫星降雨产品进行径流模拟时,以相应的卫星降雨进行水文模型参数率定可获得更高的模拟精度。TRMM_RT与CMORPH日径流模拟精度较好,CMORPH月径流模拟精度较好。总体而言,CMORPH更适用于径流模拟。对于典型的3场大洪水模拟结果表明,TRMM_RT和CMORPH对洪峰与洪量（径流深）的模拟精度相对较高。     

德国水法发展对我国治水的借鉴意义

本文从深受欧盟水政策影响的德国水治理的历史发展和基础理念出发,对德国《水平衡管理法》的法规框架和总则进行了阐述、分析与比较。德国经验表明,在法治框架下,依可根据持续性原则,对水事进行综合治理。只有根据可持续性原则和通过法治,才能长期确保水安全,维护人与自然的和谐,保持水体清洁和维护生态平衡,确保当代及后代人的环境与发展权。水事综合治理原则不仅要通过协调水体使用与保护之间的关系,来调整环保在相对于经济和社会的传统不平衡地位,更要遵循自然水循环的本质特征。建议我国在《水污染防治法》的修订中,需要基于我国现实技术支撑的易操作制度,来实践可持续性原则和水事综合治理原则,强化法律间的协调。同时,还在立法技术上提出了若干建议。     

Benefit‐Cost Analysis of Integrated Water Resource Management: Accounting for Interdependence in the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan

Integrated water resource management (IWRM) requires accounting for many interrelated facets of water systems, water uses and stakeholders, and water management activities. The consequence is that project analysis must account for the nonseparability among the component parts of IWRM plans. This article presents a benefit‐cost (B‐C) analysis of a set of projects included in the Yakima Basin Integrated Plan proposed for the Yakima Basin in south‐central Washington State. The analysis accounts for interdependence among proposed water storage projects and between water storage and water market development in the context of historical and more adverse projected future climate scenarios. Focusing on irrigation benefits from storage, we show that the value of a given proposed storage project is lower when other proposed storage projects in the basin are implemented, and when water markets are functioning effectively. We find that none of the water storage projects satisfy a B‐C criterion, and that assuring proposed instream flow augmentation is less expensive by purchasing senior diversion rights than relying on new storage to provide it.     

Estimating Root Zone Soil Moisture at Continental Scale Using Neural Networks

This study investigates the feasibility of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to retrieve root zone soil moisture (RZSM) at the depths of 20 cm (SM20) and 50 cm (SM50) at a continental scale, using surface information. To train the ANNs to capture interactions between land surface and various climatic patterns, data of 557 stations over the continental United States were collected. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the ANNs were able to identify input variables that directly affect the water and energy balance in root zone. The data important for RZSM retrieval in a large area included soil texture, surface soil moisture, and the cumulative values of air temperature, surface soil temperature, rainfall, and snowfall. The results showed that the ANNs had high skill in retrieving SM20 with a correlation coefficient above 0.7 in most cases, but were less effective at estimating SM50. The comparison of the ANNs showed that using soil texture data improved the model performance, especially for the estimation of SM50. It was demonstrated that the ANNs had high flexibility for applications in different climatic regions. The method was used to generate RZSM in North America using Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) soil moisture data, and achieved a spatial soil moisture pattern comparable to that of Global Land Data Assimilation System Noah model with comparable performance to the SMOS surface soil moisture retrievals. The models can be efficient alternatives to assimilate remote sensing soil moisture data for shallow RZSM retrieval.     

小气候环境温湿度的估算方法

采用最小二乘法对数据进行统计处理,探讨了海南站棚、库等小气候环境温、湿度的估算方法,得到了暴露场温度和水汽压与一号棚、四号库和××库的温度和水汽压都服从直线关系。该方法对处理大气环境因素具有通用性,结果与实际情况完全吻合,并为环境因素监测工作节省人力、物力探明了方向。