Time-Dependent Instantaneous Mortality Rates from Multiple Tagging Experiments with Exact Times of Release and Recovery

Instantaneous natural mortality rates and a nonparametric hunting mortality function are estimated from a multiple-year tagging experiment with arbitrary, time-dependent fishing or hunting mortality. Our theory allows animals to be tagged over a range of times in each year, and to take time to mix into the population. Animals are recovered by hunting or fishing, and death events from natural causes occur but are not observed. We combine a long-standing approach based on yearly totals, described by Brownie et al. (1985, Statistical Inference from Band Recovery Data: A Handbook, Second edition, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, Washington, Resource Publication, 156), with an exact-time-of-recovery approach originated by Hearn, Sandland and Hampton (1987, Journal du Conseil International pour l’Exploration de la Mer, 43, 107–117), who modeled times at liberty without regard to time of tagging. Our model allows for exact times of release and recovery, incomplete reporting of recoveries, and potential tag shedding. We apply our methods to data on the heavily exploited southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii).     

资源型城市生态承载力对土地利用变化的响应

探讨了鞍山、抚顺和本溪3个资源型城市1996-2000年生态承载力的变化趋势、土地利用程度综合指数变化以及生态承载力对土地利用变化的响应.结果表明:鞍山、抚顺和本溪3市1996-2000年生态承载力隶属度呈上升趋势,但均属一般水平,2000年分别为0.60、0.47、0.49;鞍山、抚顺和本溪3市土地利用程度变化综合指数分别为0.82、4.04、1.10,鞍山、本溪土地利用强度低,抚顺土地利用强度高;鞍山、抚顺、本溪3市生态承载力与土地利用程度综合指数的变化呈正相关趋势,能够基本达到相互促进的发展模式.     

用于含油污水处理的气浮旋流耦合技术研究

建立了气浮旋流耦合装置。测试了气浮旋流耦合装置的分离效果，实验表明，在加气量质量比为0．003-0.020，含油污水浓度为50—300mg／L条件下，气浮旋流耦合装置可比单纯的旋流分离装置的分离效率提高10％，50％。     

超细粉煤灰-氟石膏在道路修补工程中的综合利用研究

针对我国现有水泥混凝土路面的破坏问题,研究开发了以工业废料--超细粉煤灰和氟石膏为主要组分的水泥基道路修补材料,利用氟石膏与超细粉煤灰在水泥水化过程中的相互激发作用,通过试验优选出超细粉煤灰-氟石膏高性能道路修补材料,并应用于道路修补混凝土的配制,同时测试了其力学性能及部分长期性能,试验表明其性能优良,在此基础上对其水化硬化机理作了初步的探讨.     

砀山县污水处理厂工程的设计

介绍了砀山县近期处理规模为25000m^3／d、采用一体化氧化沟工艺的污水处理厂的设计情况，并针对雨污合流制采取了一系列的解决措施。     

Coupling climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework: A convex optimisation approach

In this paper, we present a general method, based on a convex optimisation technique, that facilitates the coupling of climate and economic models in a cost-benefit framework. As a demonstration of the method, we couple an economic growth model à la Ramsey adapted from DICE-99 with an efficient intermediate complexity climate model, C-GOLDSTEIN, which has highly simplified physics, but fully 3-D ocean dynamics. As in DICE-99, we assume that an economic cost is associated with global temperature change: this change is obtained from the climate model, which is driven by the GHG concentrations computed from the economic growth path. The work extends a previous paper in which these models were coupled in cost-effectiveness mode. Here we consider the more intricate cost-benefit coupling in which the climate impact is not fixed a priori. We implement the coupled model using an oracle-based optimisation technique. Each model is contained in an oracle, which supplies model output and information on its sensitivity to a master program. The algorithm Proximal-ACCPM guarantees the convergence of the procedure under sufficient convexity assumptions. Our results demonstrate the possibility of a consistent, cost-benefit, climate-damage optimisation analysis with a 3-D climate model.     

How Probability Survey Data Can Help Integrate 305(b) and 303(d)Monitoring and Assessment of State Waters

Section 305(b) of the United States’ Clean Water Act (CWA) requires states to assess the overall quality of waters in the states, while Section 303(d) requires states to develop a list of the specific waters in their state not attaining water quality standards (a.k.at impaired waters). An integrated, efficient and cost-effective process is needed to acquire and assess the data needed to meet both these mandates. A subset of presentations at the 2002 Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) Symposium provided information on how probability data, tools and methods could be used by states and other entities to aid in development of their overall assessment of condition and list of impaired waters. Discussion identified some of the technical and institutional problems that hinder the use of EMAP methods and data in the analysis to identify impaired waters as well as development needs to overcome these problems.     

Economic valuation of health impacts of air pollution in Mumbai

Air pollution leads to serious negative impacts on health. Thephysical evidence is compelling. An attempt has been made inthis paper to establish dose-response relationship of AmbientAir Quality Index and human health, based on time spent by anindividual in different microenvironments during one day.Economic valuation of morbidity and mortality has been attemptedthrough lost salary approach. The results show that theavoidance cost is 29% of the total health damage cost.     

growing pains: a conceptual framework for considering integrated assessments

Policy concerns related to the environment have grown in the past decadesfrom relatively local and well-defined problems to increasingly complex andglobal issues. With this has grown the need to develop the capacity tointegrate, reconcile, organize, and communicate knowledge across scientificdisciplines, as well as to make this knowledge available and useful for policy-makers. One response to this has been the growing field ofIntegrated Assessment (IA). Our goal in this paper is to reflect on the purpose and valueof IA in principle. We propose a conceptual framework within whichindividual IA studies, and the practice of IA as a whole, can be placed andevaluated. The framework addresses both the integrative nature of IAs andtheir policy usefulness, including a self-awareness of their role and capabilities. We illustrate several stages in the evolution of integrated assessments: fromlinear to more complex chains of analysis, from non-adaptive to perfectly-adaptive to realistically-adaptive agents, from simplistic to sophisticated to pluralistic consideration of alternative underlying development paths, from strictly quantitative to quantitative and qualitative analyses, from science-driven to policy-driven, and from analyses that dictate to users to those that involvethose users in the actual assessment process. By so doing, we argue for botha richer form and process of IA. Ultimately, we feel that it may also benecessary to reconsider the framing of the questions that IAs have been askedto address, perhaps leading to the consideration of the use of other forms of mandated science.     

Informing global environmental policy‐making: A plea for new methods of assessment and synthesis

Practice and research in assessment of global environmental change are dominated by two conventional assessment methods, formal models and expert panels. Models construct a representation of biophysical and socioeconomic components of a policy issue, to project future trends or consequences of interventions. Panels articulate consensus views of policyrelevant knowledge through deliberations among selected experts. These methods make valuable contributions, but are weak in addressing certain kinds of knowledge needs that are typical of globalchange issues. To address these needs, a set of novel assessment methods is proposed that combine elements of representation and deliberation. These methods, of which policy exercises, simulationgaming, and scenario exercises are examples, involve human participants in structured relevant decision and task settings. Relative to models and panels, these methods can more readily incorporate diverse perspectives, can integrate across broader collections of knowledge domains, and can both encourage creative insights and innovations, and provide tests of their relevance and practicality. Risks of bias, and of overconfident generalization from unique experiences, are effectively mitigated by critical debriefings, and appear no more severe than corresponding risks in conventional assessment methods, or in policymakers generalizations from historical experience. While serious development and implementation challenges remain, early experience suggests that these methods can offer useful ideas and insights for policymaking that are not available through other means.