基于最严格水资源管理制度的初始水权分配研究

实行最严格水资源管理制度是2011年中央一号文件明确要求的内容。在分析最严格水资源管理初始水权分配内涵的基础上,首次以水资源管理“三条红线”为准则,构建了包含目标层、准则层、指标层及方案层4个层次结构的初始水权分配指标体系,建立了最严格水资源管理初始水权分配的投影寻踪模型,并采用量子遗传算法优化投影指标函数,以模型计算出的最佳投影值作为初始水权分配的分水比例。最后,以南水北调东线一期工程为例,将本文所建立的模型用来分配该工程净增加供水量的初始调水量。结果表明:该指标体系和模型具有一定的可操作性及有效性。     

粮食安全视角下的土地资源优化配置及其关键问题

土地资源优化配置是提高土地资源利用效率、缓解土地用途冲突、促进人地和谐发展的重要手段。当前中国土地资源优化配置研究在理论探索与实践应用方面均取得积极进展,但面对土地利用急剧变化、土地管理效率低下及生态系统退化等现实问题,传统的以“数量—空间耦合”为核心的优化配置方式已难以满足当前人类追求美好生活的需求和国土空间可持续发展的目标要求。与此同时,全球粮食安全正面临一系列严峻挑战,土地资源优化配置将直接影响并作用于粮食生产与经济发展之间的冲突协调过程。改革开放以来,南京大学立足和服务于国家战略需求与重点区域发展（长三角及沿海地区）,以保障资源安全与粮食安全目标为导向,围绕土地资源优化配置开展了大量研究和实践,主要集中在耕地利用格局优化、耕地集约利用转型、耕地保护与利用规划、土地利用与城乡规划、国土整治与农用地管理、土地利用制度创新、土地经济政策优化等特色研究领域,充分发挥地理学与管理学交叉学科优势,为国家土地资源优化与可持续利用的学科发展和制度创新做出了积极贡献。综上,通过系统梳理土地资源优化配置相关研究进展,总结归纳中国土地资源配置的关键问题,进一步在回顾南京大学学术贡献的基础上提出粮食安全视角下的中国土地资源优化配置面临的机遇与挑战,试图为可持续土地利用优化提供借鉴和参考。     

中国土地利用规划的指标分配逻辑：兼论对国土空间规划的启示

用地指标是我国空间规划实施和国土空间管制的关键政策工具。研究收集省级土地利用总体规划（2006—2020年）新增建设用地指标数据,利用多层线性模型,分析了用地指标分配的偏好及其影响因素,并探讨了省级和市级因素对指标分配的交互作用机制。结果表明： （1）用地指标分配策略具有明显的地区差异性,绝对量呈现东高西低的格局,而相对量呈现西部和东南高、中部和东北低的空间特征;（2）用地指标分配模式主要受经济发展需求驱动,缺乏对水土等资源环境限制性因素的考虑;（3）快速发展期的省倾向于集中分配策略,发展水平较高的省则更为均衡。因此,需坚守资源环境底线,配合有效的经济激励政策,实施差别化的用地指标管理策略。     

水银行制度研究综述

在水资源短缺问题制约社会经济发展的情况下,水权交易成为解决水资源危机、实现水资源合理配置的重要方法,水银行在国外已经比较成熟,而国内仍在起步阶段.梳理了水银行与水权交易的关系,指出水银行是水权交易的形式之一;归纳总结了相关研究进展,包括水银行的概念界定、交易机制、实施基础、水银行的类型、交易定价,并指出当前研究存在问题及未来研究重点.通过对国内外学者研究的综述,为解决中国水资源短缺问题提供一些思路.     

河南省2013年大气氨排放清单建立及分布特征

根据收集到的城市尺度排放源活动水平数据,采用排放因子法,基于"自上而下"和"自下而上"相结合的方式建立了河南省2013年大气氨排放清单,利用GIS技术进行3 km×3 km空间网格分配.结果表明,河南省2013年大气氨排放总量为1035.3 kt,排放强度为6.4 t ·km^-2;畜禽养殖和氮肥施用为主要氨排放源,分别占总排放量的52.71%和31.53%;畜禽养殖中肉牛、蛋禽和山羊为主要贡献源,分别占畜禽养殖排放总量的34.98%、16.63%和14.02%;不同城市排放源构成和排放强度不同;南阳市、周口市、商丘市和驻马店市是排放量较大的地级市,分别占全省总量的11.53%、9.84%、9.62%和9.57%;濮阳市和漯河市排放强度最大,分别达到10.7 t ·km^-2和10.2 t ·km^-2;空间分布特征显示,中东部地区排放量较高,西部地区相对较低,排放量较大的地区集中在平原地区和人口密集区域.     

Transboundary Groundwater Policy: Developing Approaches in the Western and Southwestern United States1

Hathaway, Deborah L., 2011. Transboundary Groundwater Policy: Developing Approaches in the Western and Southwestern United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):103‐113. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00494.x Abstract: The western and southwestern United States include dozens of groundwater basins that cross political boundaries. Common among these shared groundwater basins is an overlay of differing legal structures and water development priorities, typically, with insufficient water supply for competing human uses, and often, a degraded ecosystem. Resolution of conflicts over ambiguously regulated groundwater has clarified transboundary groundwater policy in some interstate basins, while transboundary groundwater policy in international basins is less evolved. This paper identifies and contrasts approaches to transboundary groundwater policy, drawing from recent conflicts and cooperative efforts, including those associated with the interstate compacts on the Arkansas and Pecos Rivers; the Hueco and Lower Rio Grande Basins shared by New Mexico, Texas, and Mexico; and the Mexicali Basin in California and Mexico. Some efforts seek to fit groundwater policy into existing surface water allocation procedures; some strive for a better fit – incorporating scientific understanding of key differences between groundwater and surface water into policy frameworks. In some cases, neither policy nor precedent exists. The collective experience of these and other cases sets the stage for improved management of transboundary groundwater; as such, challenges and successes of these approaches, and those contemplated in several hypothetical model agreements, are examined.     

A Method to Assess and Define Environmental Flow Rules for Large Jurisdictional Regions1

Snelder, Ton, Doug Booker, and Nicolas Lamouroux, 2011. A Method to Assess and Define Environmental Flow Rules for Large Jurisdictional Regions. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):828‐840. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00556.x Abstract: Hydrological rules of thumb are used across jurisdictional regions to set minimum flows and allocation limits that apply by default (i.e., when more detailed site‐scale studies have not been carried out). Uniform rules do not account for spatial variation in environmental characteristics, resulting in inconsistent consequences for the protection of ecosystems, and the reliability of water resources. We developed a method for assessing hydrological rules of thumb that describes their consequences for protection of the ecosystem (in terms of retention of physical habitat) and the reliability of the water resource. The method links regionalized flow duration curves, at‐station hydraulic geometry, and generalized physical habitat models to make assessments at many locations across a region. The method estimates, for a given set of rules, the retained physical habitat for specified taxa/life stages and the proportion of the time abstractions are restricted. We applied the method to assess a set of rules that are proposed as default minimum flows and allocation limits for New Zealand rivers. The assessment showed that the minimum flow rules had variable consequences. The method could be used to quantify the tradeoff between environmental protection and water resources availability and reliability.     

An agent based model to simulate structural and land use changes in agricultural systems of the argentine pampas

The Argentine Pampas, one of the main agricultural areas in the world, recently has undergone significant changes in land use and structural characteristics of agricultural production systems. Concerns about the environmental and societal impacts of the changes motivated development of an agent-based model (ABM) to gain insight on processes underlying recent observed patterns. The model is described following a standard protocol (ODD). Results are discussed for an initial set of simplified simulations performed to understand the processes that generated and magnified the changes in the Pampas. Changes in the structure of agricultural production and land tenure seem to be driven by differences among farmers’ ability to generate sufficient agricultural income to remain in business. In turn, as no off-farm or credit is modeled, economic sustainability is tied to initial resource endowment (area cropped). Farmers operating small areas are economically unviable and must lease out their farms to farmers operating larger areas. This leads to two patterns: (a) a concentration of production (fewer farmers operating larger areas) and, (b) an increase in the area operated by tenants. The simulations showed an increase of soybean area, linked to the higher profitability of this crop. Despite the stylized nature of initial simulations, all emerging patterns are highly consistent with changes observed in the Pampas.     

基于合作博弈论的感潮河网区污染物排放总量削减分配模型研究

在给定污染物削减目标的情况下,如何确定各排污区域的分配比例一直是污染物总量分配技术的核心问题,博弈论是解决这一问题的有效尝试。采用合作博弈论方法,以感潮河网区各排污区域为研究对象,充分考虑各区域的污染治理成本、排污策略与环境质量的相互影响,建立了在给定污染物总削减比例条件下各区域环境合作的博弈模型,计算了各种可能联盟的特征函数值,利用Shapley值法进行合作收益的公平分配。结合珠江三角洲西江-石岐河河网区3个区域的环境合作案例说明削减合作的可行性,在总削减比例为15%的约束下,3区域合作削减比例是20.77%、12.82%和12.99%,与合作前相比,3个区域合作后环境成本分别减少了11.83%、2.13%和2%。