基于可信性理论的水资源优化配置模型

针对城市水资源与水环境系统中存在的不确定性与复杂性,提出了模糊环境下基于可信性理论的CFCCP模型(可信性模糊机会约束规划模型),并将其应用于衡水市水资源优化配置模型的研究中. CFCCP模型以衡水市经济、社会与环境效益最大化为目标,以供需水量、区域协调发展等为不确定性约束,以各水源在各子区不同部门间的分配为决策变量,并且设计了基于模糊模拟的猴群算法进行求解. CFCCP模型可反映不确定性因素对系统收益的影响,计算了各规划水平年置信水平为08时的水资源配置风险-收益权衡方案,得到2015年和2025年的区域经济效益分别为198 36530×104和266 22730×104元,缺水量分别为25 29936×104和20 99096×104 m3,污染物排放量分别为12 80847和13 00044 t. 同时,通过与传统优化算法的比较,证明了基于模糊模拟的猴群算法在求解多维优化问题时的有效性.      

考虑未来水资源配置的龙刘水库可调水量研究

论文针对黄河上游水沙关系恶化、水资源供需矛盾加剧等问题,围绕黄河全流域2012—2030年水资源规划的配置结果,以龙羊峡、刘家峡梯级水库联合调度为调控手段,考虑全流域综合供水、防洪、防凌、水资源供需平衡等要求,构建了黄河上游龙羊峡、刘家峡（龙刘）梯级水库联合调度模型,采用自迭代模拟优化算法,分别计算4种情景、4种模式下13个方案的可调水量,最终推荐以水定电模式下的计算结果为最佳模式。结果表明：随着未来需水量的增加,可调水量呈减小趋势,且调水工程的引水量未提高梯级水库的可调水量。研究成果可为黄河上游宽谷河段水沙调控、黄河上游梯级水库群科学规划和调度提供技术支撑。     

基于代际公平的碳排放权分配研究

以1901~2005年作为历史碳排放分配时间段,从历史代际和代内公平的角度考虑,利用全球132个国家的人口、GDP和碳排放数据,通过基尼系数优化模型对全球132个国家的历史碳排放配额进行优化分配,同时对各国未来的碳排放权做了公平分配.研究结果表明,基于GDP和人口的各国历史碳排放配额Gini系数值均低于实际的Gini系数值,并且低于0.4的警戒值,获得综合考虑各国的GDP和人口的历史碳排放配额最优分配结果.对各国的历史碳排放的赤字量和剩余量分析表明,美国是历史碳排放赤字最多的国家,印度、中国是历史碳排放剩余最多国家;同时考虑各国的历史碳排放情况得到各国未来的碳排放权,其中中国、印度等国家人口最多,经济所占全球比例也较高,在未来能获得最多的碳排放权.     

氮素影响陆地生态系统碳循环过程的模型表达方法

氮素是植物生长所必需的重要营养元素。人类活动引起的大气氮沉降增加对陆地生态系统碳循环过程具有重要影响。准确地定量表达氮素对陆地生态系统碳循环过程的影响是预测未来全球碳循环变化的关键环节。论文系统地归纳总结了国内外多个知名生物地球化学模型中氮素影响光合作用、呼吸作用、同化物分配等碳循环过程的数学表达方法,分析了不同碳循环过程中模型表达方法的不确定性及其原因。指出未来模型的发展需在加强机理研究的基础上,发展能反映氮饱和现象、能显式表达氮素与光合速率关系的光合作用过程算法,发展能显式表达氮素与植物体根、茎和叶呼吸速率关系的维持呼吸算法以及发展显式表达氮素对同化物分配过程影响的动态同化物分配方案。指出当今大部分主流模型在模拟氮素对光合作用影响时没有考虑氮饱和现象,因此利用模型预测未来陆地生态系统对氮素增加的响应时可能会高估氮沉降对光合速率的影响。研究综述可为准确评价陆地生态系统碳氮相互作用和发展碳氮耦合模型提供参考。     

基于基尼系数法的区域水污染物分配研究

将经济领域用于评价收入公平性指标——基尼系数法用于区域水污染物总量分配。以湖北省17市州为分配对象,以各地基准年排放量为初步分配方案,分别绘制人口、水资源量和地区生产总值各指标下洛伦兹曲线图,计算各基尼系数值并评估公平性。以省年度环保规划为削减依据,在完成减排目标的前提下,研究确定重点削减区域,达到使各指标基尼系数趋于合理的目的。结果表明,该方法既能衡量不公平程度,明确重点调整指标,在兼顾各指标影响差异的同时,改善分配方案,是一种较适宜的评估分配方法。     

基于博弈论石化园区火灾跨区域灭火救援研究

为解决石油化工园区火灾跨区域灭火救援面临的多消防中队相互协作、消防资源优化配置等复杂问题,搭建以新疆阿克苏地区消防力量为救援基础的原油储罐火灾场景,结合Gambit软件建立博弈计算模型,设计跨区域灭火救援方案的通用流程。针对不同火灾规模,以跨区域灭火救援通用制定流程为指导,计算出相应的消防中队战斗组合及救援力量输出。针对火灾发展的不确定性,通过混合策略博弈计算进一步调整和完善跨区域灭火救援方案。结果表明,采用博弈论方法能够提供针对消防资源调度分配的新方法,用以制定更快速和易于调整的灭火救援方案。     

考虑优先权的人群安全疏散动态模型

为制定合理、高效的应急状况下建筑物内人群疏散方案,考虑拥堵对人流速度的影响及疏散中不同人员特点,对建筑物内人群疏散动态实时分配问题进行研究。首先,采用元胞传输理论将建筑物内复杂的结构转化为元胞—连接桥路网模型,进而以最短疏散时间为目标函数、元胞流量守恒和流量传播为约束条件建立线性优化模型。通过对模型的求解可以得到不同优先级人员的网络清空时间、各路段实时人员数量及路径选择最优方案。案例分析结果表明,疏散过程中人员的优先级差异以及拥堵的发生均会影响不同人员的网络清空时间,因此,针对建筑物内人群疏散进行建模时,应考虑以上因素。     

长江流域的水资源配置与水资源综合管理

回顾总结了我国近年来在水资源配置方面的理论研究和工作进展,论述了我国水资源配置的特点及其与联合国倡导的水资源综合管理的相互关系,阐述了长江流域水资源综合管理在我国的重要地位。提出我国开展的水资源配置在重视公众参与的基础上,与水资源综合管理是一致的。长江流域水资源综合管理是一个多学科、跨学科的研究课题。流域层面的水资源综合管理是国家层面和行业层面水资源配置的基础。长江水资源综合管理应该遵循水文系统优先的原则,使水资源利用和管理在流域层面上首先达到优化状态。环境用水需求是一个重要课题,它是流域层面水资源配置的基础,急待开展大量的研究。在流域系统优先原则下,各行政区与水用户参与者在讨论和协商的基础上,确定共同的准则、目标和具体措施,在不损害它方利益的前提下都能取得自己的利益。具体细化新《水法》中提出的流域管理与行政管理相结合的原则是开展长江水资源综合管理的关键。《长江法》的制定应该为水资源综合管理提供具体的法律依据。流域与地方水利机构的体制改革是十分重要的,它应该为开展水资源综合管理创造条件。在我国国情条件下,水资源综合管理中的用户参与应该如何开展,需要研究和实践。     

Foliage profiles of individual trees determine competition,self-thinning,biomass and NPP of a Cryptomeria japonica forest stand: A simulation study based on a stand-scale process-based forest model

A simulation study was carried out to investigate simultaneously the effects of eco-physiological parameters on competitive asymmetry, self-thinning, stand biomass and NPP in a temperate forest using an atmosphere–vegetation dynamics interactive model (MINoSGI). In this study, we selected three eco-physiological relevant parameters as foliage profiles (i.e. vertical distribution of leaf area density) of individual trees (distribution pattern is described by the parameter η), biomass allocation pattern in individual tree growth (χ) and the maximum carboxylation velocity (V_max). The position of the maximal leaf area density shifts upward in the canopy with increasing η. For scenarios with η < 4 (foliage concentrated in the lowest canopy layer) or η > 12 (foliage concentrated in the uppermost canopy layer), a low degree of competitive asymmetry was produced. These scenarios resulted in the survival of subordinate trees due to a brighter lower canopy environment when η < 4 or the generation of spatially separated foliage profiles between dominant and subordinate trees when η > 12. In contrast, competition between trees was most asymmetric when 4 ≤ η ≤ 12 (vertically widespread foliage profile in the canopy), especially when η = 8. In such cases, vertically widespread foliage of dominant trees lowered the opportunity of light acquisition for subordinate trees and reduced their carbon gain. The resulting reduction in carbon gain of subordinate trees yielded a higher degree of competitive asymmetry and ultimately higher mortality of subordinate trees. It was also shown that 4 ≤ η ≤ 12 generated higher self-thinning speed, smaller accumulated NPP, litter-fall and potential stand biomass as compared with the scenarios with η < 4 or η > 12. In contrast, our simulation revealed small effects of χ or V_max on the above-mentioned variables as compared with those of η. In particular, it is notable that greater V_max would not produce greater potential stand biomass and accumulated NPP although it has been thought that physiological parameters relevant to photosynthesis such as V_max influence dynamic changes in forest stand biomass and NPP (e.g. the greater the V_max, the greater the NPP). Overall, it is suggested that foliage profiles rather than biomass allocation or maximum carboxylation velocity greatly govern forest dynamics, stand biomass, NPP and litter-fall.     

Resource allocation varies with parental sex and brood size in the asynchronously hatching green-rumped parrotlet (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Forpus passerinus</Emphasis>)

When eggs hatch asynchronously, offspring arising from last-hatched eggs often exhibit a competitive disadvantage compared with their older, larger nestmates. Strong sibling competition might result in a pattern of resource allocation favoring larger nestlings, but active food allocation towards smaller offspring may compensate for the negative effects of asynchronous hatching. We examined patterns of resource allocation by green-rumped parrotlet parents to small and large broods under control and food-supplemented conditions. There was no difference between parents and among brood sizes in visit rate or number of feeds delivered, although females spent marginally more time in the nest than males. Both male and female parents preferentially fed offspring that had a higher begging effort than the remainder of the brood. Mean begging levels did not differ between small and large broods, but smaller offspring begged more than their older nestmates in large broods. Male parents fed small offspring less often in both brood sizes. Female parents fed offspring evenly in small broods, while in large broods they fed smaller offspring more frequently, with the exception of the very last hatched individual. These data suggest male parrotlets exhibit a feeding preference for larger offspring—possibly arising from the outcome of sibling competition—but that females practice active food allocation, particularly in larger brood sizes. These differential patterns of resource allocation between the sexes are consistent with other studies of parrots and may reflect some level of female compensation for the limitations imposed on smaller offspring by hatching asynchrony.