江苏省农村土地征用与收益分配研究

本文立足江苏省的土地征用和土地收益分配现实，指出目前存在“圈地”现象严重、征地补偿过低、失地农民未来生活无保障等问题。从政府、制度、城市建设三个层面探讨了问题产生的根源，并提出了提高土地补偿标准、建立失地农民保障体系、广开就业门路、健全法律体系等改革措施。     

CONJUNCTIVE SURFACE AND GROUND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE JAKARTA REGION,INDONESIA1

ABSTRACT: This study investigates the degree of economic inefficiency of the current institutional arrangements for surface and ground water management in meeting urban water demand in the Jakarta region. A numerical model of integrated surface and ground water management is developed using GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling System) software. The model maximizes the net present value of social benefits from piped water and ground water consumption across all users over time from 1999 to 2025. Four policy scenarios are examined: the status quo, the social planner's solution, and two ground water pumping quota scenarios: an aggregate ground water pumping quota and a partial quota applied to commercial and industrial users. Three variations in each policy scenario are considered: investment in water infrastructure of the Jakarta water enterprise (PAM Jaya), water demand growth, and discount rates. The status quo, depending on the investment option, the growth of water demand, and the discount rate, results in a 7.4 to 47.8 percent loss in economic efficiency relative to the social planner's solution. The partial quota is the most feasible, applicable, and manageable scenario. The optimal investment option could increase the volume of piped water supply and reduce the cost of water production. The volume of water delivery could increase by up to 156 percent, but it implies only a 35 percent increase in the surface raw water demands above the current level. However, it does not significantly reduce cumulative ground water extraction over the time period considered.     

科技资源开发与区域经济增长研究--以河南为例

本文以河南为例，对科技资源的存量动态变化、配置效率及其对区域经济增长的推动作用进行了定量分析。结果表明。1991．2002年。河南科技资源存在总体上呈持续上升趋势。但是。科技资源的配置效率却呈现出下降趋势。在这个期间。科技资源开发对河南区域经济增长的贡献率为42．1％，达到了全国的平均水平。为了进一步发挥科技资源开发对河南经济增长的推动作用，建议河南继续加快科技资源的积累；重点提高科技资源配置的效率；特别重视大幅度提高对R＆D的投入。     

Evidence for sexy sons in European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris)

The sexy son hypothesis suggests that females obtain future fitness benefits from mating with polygynous males through the inheritance by their sons of traits contributing to mating success. We tested this hypothesis in the facultatively polygynous European starling (Sturnus vulgaris) in two ways. We first compared sons of monogynous and polygynous free-living males for their abilities in nest site acquisition and female-directed behaviors in controlled aviary tests. We then investigated eggs laid in monogynous and polygynous matings for concentrations of maternal steroid hormones that could affect behavioral differentiation of sons. Sons of polygynous fathers defended more nest boxes and produced more courtship song than sons of monogynous fathers. Mean concentrations of maternal androstenedione (A4), 5-dihydrotestosterone (DHT), testosterone (T), and 17-estradiol (E) in yolks were not affected by mating status. However, the within-clutch pattern of A₄ depended on mating status, with higher concentrations in last than in first eggs of clutches of monogynous but not polygynous matings. These results suggest that (1) sons may inherit from their fathers behavioral qualities for the successful acquisition of nest sites and attraction of mates; (2) differential exposure to maternal steroid hormones during development in the egg is unlikely the cause of the behavioral differences between adult sons of monogynous and polygynous fathers; and (3) females adjust the within-clutch pattern of androgen to mating status, possibly in response to the expected contribution of their mate to nestling care.     

Re-emphasizing sustainable development — The concept of ‘Evolutionability’ On living chances, equity, and good heritage

The principle of sustainable development is now 15-year-old. There are a lot of definitions and models for its explanation — ranging from triangles and prisms to eggs — but still its sense is diffuse. Moreover, important aspects like equity are not sufficiently taken into account.The following article takes a critical look on sustainable development. It shows logical, systemic, philosophic and ethic reasons for the re-development of substantial parts of the principle of sustainability. Based on the proposed Principle of Good Heritage it provides a rough outline of a future Concept of Evolutionability, comprising a first tentative for a definition of evolutionable development, aiming at achieving a more appropriate and more workable mainstream view of sustainability.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

A framework for allocating conservation resources among multiple threats and actions

Land managers decide how to allocate resources among multiple threats that can be addressed through multiple possible actions. Additionally, these actions vary in feasibility, effectiveness, and cost. We sought to provide a way to optimize resource allocation to address multiple threats when multiple management options are available, including mutually exclusive options. Formulating the decision as a combinatorial optimization problem, our framework takes as inputs the expected impact and cost of each threat for each action (including do nothing) and for each overall budget identifies the optimal action to take for each threat. We compared the optimal solution to an easy to calculate greedy algorithm approximation and a variety of plausible ranking schemes. We applied the framework to management of multiple introduced plant species in Australian alpine areas. We developed a model of invasion to predict the expected impact in 50 years for each species-action combination that accounted for each species’ current invasion state (absent, localized, widespread); arrival probability; spread rate; impact, if present, of each species; and management effectiveness of each species-action combination. We found that the recommended action for a threat changed with budget; there was no single optimal management action for each species; and considering more than one candidate action can substantially increase the management plan's overall efficiency. The approximate solution (solution ranked by marginal cost-effectiveness) performed well when the budget matched the cost of the prioritized actions, indicating that this approach would be effective if the budget was set as part of the prioritization process. The ranking schemes varied in performance, and achieving a close to optimal solution was not guaranteed. Global sensitivity analysis revealed a threat's expected impact and, to a lesser extent, management effectiveness were the most influential parameters, emphasizing the need to focus research and monitoring efforts on their quantification.     

Microtargeting for conservation

Widespread human action and behavior change is needed to achieve many conservation goals. Doing so at the requisite scale and pace will require the efficient delivery of outreach campaigns. Conservation gains will be greatest when efforts are directed toward places of high conservation value (or need) and tailored to critical actors. Recent strategic conservation planning has relied primarily on spatial assessments of biophysical attributes, largely ignoring the human dimensions. Elsewhere, marketers, political campaigns, and others use microtargeting—predictive analytics of big data—to identify people most likely to respond positively to particular messages or interventions. Conservationists have not yet widely capitalized on these techniques. To investigate the effectiveness of microtargeting to improve conservation, we developed a propensity model to predict restoration behavior among 203,645 private landowners in a 5,200,000 ha study area in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (U.S.A.). To isolate the additional value microtargeting may offer beyond geospatial prioritization, we analyzed a new high-resolution land-cover data set and cadastral data to identify private owners of riparian areas needing restoration. Subsequently, we developed and evaluated a restoration propensity model based on a database of landowners who had conducted restoration in the past and those who had not (n = 4978). Model validation in a parallel database (n = 4989) showed owners with the highest scorers for propensity to conduct restoration (i.e., top decile) were over twice as likely as average landowners to have conducted restoration (135%). These results demonstrate that microtargeting techniques can dramatically increase the efficiency and efficacy of conservation programs, above and beyond the advances offered by biophysical prioritizations alone, as well as facilitate more robust research of many social–ecological systems.     

HUD状态下飞行员视觉注意资源分配机制研究

为了解决平视显示器（Head Up Display,HUD）飞行中的注意资源分配问题，基于飞行模拟器，设计双作业飞行任务开展相关研究。基于事件相关电位（Event Related Potential，ERP）技术，选取行为绩效和P300成分为评价指标，采用oddball模式，在双作业飞行任务条件下开展实验研究。结果表明:随主任务难度的增加，主、辅任务的作业绩效均显著下降，被试者对HUD上异常信息的正确操作率降低，且反应时间延长；随主任务难度的增加，由辅任务所诱发的P300的波幅显著降低。在实验结果的基础上，最终提出了HUD状态下飞行员视觉注意资源分配机制。     

Inter-sexual differences in T-cell-mediated immunity of black-headed gull chicks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Larus ridibundus</Emphasis>) depend on the hatching order

Hatching asynchrony in avian species leads to age and size differences between nestlings within a brood, handicapping last-hatched chicks in the sibling rivalry. Starvation due to this competitive disadvantage has been regarded as the primary cause of an increase in mortality with hatching order. However, for gulls it has also been suggested that disease is the cause of mortality for last-hatched chicks, possibly through reduced immunocompetence and thereby an enhanced susceptibility to infection. In addition, the male-biased mortality reported for several gull species may be related to a higher vulnerability to diseases in males compared to females. To determine the potential influence of the immune system on these mortality patterns, we investigated the T-cell-mediated immunity (CMI) of black-headed gull chicks in relation to hatching order and sex. We found a significant decrease in the CMI with hatching order. This result may be causally related to systematic changes in maternal yolk steroids and carotenoids within the laying sequence. For second-laid eggs, male CMI was significantly lower than female CMI. This is possibly linked to higher plasma levels of testosterone in male embryos which might have an immunosuppressive effect. If so, this effect is masked in eggs of either high (first egg) or low (last egg) quality. Chicks with low CMI showed enhanced mortality rates. Thus the differences in immune response are likely to contribute to the observed mortality patterns. However, hatching order significantly affected mortality independently of CMI, suggesting that competitive disadvantage due to hatching asynchrony is also important.Communicated by M. Webster     

Preferential allocation of food by magpies Pica pica to great spotted cuckoo Clamator glandarius chicks

Adult magpies Pica pica provide parasitic great spotted cuckoo Clamator glandarius nestlings with a diet very similar to that fed to their own chicks. In both naturally and experimentally parasitized nests, great spotted cuckoo chicks were fed at a higher rate than magpie chicks in the same nest. This preferential allocation of food by magpie parents to great spotted cuckoo chicks is consistent with the supernormal stimulus hypothesis, because this result implies that cuckoo chicks provide stronger stimuli for parental care than host chicks. Great spotted cuckoo chicks receive most of the food brought to the nest by the foster parents, because they exploit a series of stimuli which jointly (or sometimes individually) operate as a supernormal stimulus. This hypothesis predicts that if any stimulus is masked, the efficiency of the cuckoo in eliciting parental care will decrease. Here, we analyze experimentally the effects of two of these stimuli, preferential feeding of large nestlings and of nestlings with conspicuous palatal papillae. Firstly, when we experimentally introduced one medium-sized (7–9 days) cuckoo chick into an unparasitized magpie nest where the largest magpie chick was 12–15 days old, the cuckoo did not receive significantly more food than the average or the largest magpie chick. Secondly, when unparasitized nests were experimentally parasitized with a cuckoo chick that had its gape painted to mimic that of magpie chicks, the parasitic cuckoo received less food than the average magpie chick.