Ethnobotany and ecological perspectives on the management and use of plant species for a traditional fishing trap, southern coast of São Paulo, Brazil

The cerco-fixo is an artisanal fishing trap widely used by traditional communities in the estuarine region of the southern coast of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The primary goal of the study was to investigate, through ethnobotanical and ecological approaches, the use of plant species by traditional fishermen to build the cerco-fixo at Cardoso Island State Park and Cananéia Island. Ethnobotanical data were collected through interviews, direct observation, plant collection and identification, and document analysis. An ecological evaluation was also done comparing five 20 × 20 m plots in a managed area to five 20 × 20m plots in an unmanaged area, both within arboreal sandy soil vegetation called restinga arbórea, found within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain. This study involved 34 fishermen living at Cardoso and Cananéia Islands. The fishermen know more than 90 Atlantic Forest plant species that can be used to build the cerco-fixo. Tree species from the family Myrtaceae were the most quoted in the interviews. With respect to the ecological evaluation, the cluster analyses showed greater heterogeneity in terms of floristic composition (i.e. greater floristic dissimilarity) within the plots of the managed area. The analyses of diversity showed a slightly higher species richness and slightly lower values for Shannon, Simpson, Hurlbert’s PIE and Evenness indices in the managed area (59 species; H′ = 3.28; 1/D = 10.77; E = 0.80; Hurlbert’s PIE = 0.91) compared to the unmanaged area (54 species; H′ = 3.39; 1/D = 20.21; E = 0.85; Hurlbert’s PIE = 0.95). The Hutcheson’s t test showed no significant difference between both areas’ Shannon diversity indices (t: −1.04; p: 0.30). These results are attributed to the greater dominance of the palm species Euterpe edulis Mart. in the managed area (28.2% of the trees sampled at this area; n = 118), which equals twice the percentage of individuals of the same species found for the unmanaged area (14.6% of the sampled trees; n = 48). We discuss the impact of the fishermen’s harvesting practices in the managed area with an emphasis on three main points: (1) the harvesting practices are likely not contributing to a decrease in diversity in the managed area; (2) the greater heterogeneity in terms of floristic composition found for the managed area may reflect a mosaic pattern created by the opening of small tree-gaps distributed across this area over the course of more than 50 years; (3) the disturbance promoted by the fishermen’s harvesting practices can be compared to natural disturbances of low impact that create mosaic patterns in tropical forests. This study emphasizes the prominence of the human dimension in ecological processes and the importance of considering the perspectives of local people when discussing the conservation of the natural environments in which these people live.     

System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area1

Mieno, Taro and John B. Braden, 2011. Residential Demand for Water in the Chicago Metropolitan Area. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):713‐723. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00536.x Abstract: This paper provides the first contemporary analysis of residential water demand in humid Northeastern Illinois, in the vicinity of Chicago, and explores seasonal and income‐based differentials in the responsiveness of water use to water prices. Using a panel of system‐level data for eight water systems and controlling for seasons, weather, incomes, and community characteristics, the analysis yields low estimates of price elasticity of demand for water in line with other studies. Furthermore, price response is greater in summer and less in higher income communities. We suggest that use of seasonal pricing can help mitigate equity issues arising from differential income elasticities while taking advantage of the greater price responsiveness of summertime water use.     

Examining Flood Frequency Distributions in the Midwest U.S.1

Villarini, Gabriele, James A. Smith, Mary Lynn Baeck, and Witold F. Krajewski, 2011. Examining Flood Frequency Distributions in the Midwest U.S. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3):447‐463. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00540.x Abstract: Annual maximum peak discharge time series from 196 stream gage stations with a record of at least 75 years from the Midwest United States is examined to study flood peak distributions from a regional point of view. The focus of this study is to evaluate: (1) “mixtures” of flood peak distributions, (2) upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions, and (3) presence of temporal nonstationarities in the flood peak records. Warm season convective systems are responsible for some of the largest floods in the area, in particular in Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa. Spring events associated with snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow are common in the northern part of the study domain. Nonparametric tests are used to investigate the presence of abrupt and slowly varying changes. Change‐points rather than monotonic trends are responsible for most violations of the stationarity assumption. The abrupt changes in flood peaks can be associated with anthropogenic changes, such as changes in land use/land cover, agricultural practice, and construction of dams. The trend analyses do not suggest an increase in the flood peak distribution due to anthropogenic climate change. Examination of the upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions are examined by means of the location, scale, and shape parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution.     

利用Landsat7反演的亮温与土地覆盖类型相关性分析

随着城市人口的急剧增加,城市建筑规模迅速膨胀,大量热源集中排放,产生了城市内部温度明显高于郊区的特殊城市气候现象,即“热岛效应”.以安徽省芜湖市为研究区域,采用GIS叠加分析方法、缓冲区分析方法进行地表辐射亮温与土地覆盖类型的相关性研究.研究结果表明,辐射亮温与地表类型有明显的相关关系,建筑与辐射亮温的相关系数为0.87,植被、水体与辐射亮温的相关系数分别为0.59、0.78.人工建筑因素是产生热岛效应的主要原因之一,加大植被、水体在城市土地用地中的比重,是控制城市热岛效应行之有效的方法,而且利用辐射亮温图可很好地指示城市土地覆盖类型在时间上和空间上的变化.     

南京市农用地土壤中重金属形态特征分析

以南京市农用地土壤为研究对象,采用顺序提取的方法对Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd做化学形态分析,了解不同元素各形态下空间赋存的含量与占比。结果表明,在农用地土壤中,上述4种金属元素所赋存的化学形态活泼性顺序为CdPbCuZn,其中Cd主要为醋酸提取态,Pb主要为可还原态,各占总量的40%以上,具有较高的生物有效性和潜在危害性;Cu与Zn主要为残渣态,占总量的60%左右,生物可利用性较低。由因子分析法可知,土壤p H值越大,Zn与Cd就越趋于向稳定的化学形态转化,土壤有机质含量越高,对Cu与Pb的络合能力就越强,可以降低其环境危害性。     

基于Landsat 8遥感数据的天津市地表温度反演

以Landsat 8遥感数据为数据源,进行天津市地表温度反演研究。首先采用单通道算法反演地表温度,并利用均值标准差法进行温度分级。然后建立不同温度等级面积比例的估算模型。再通过随机样点,从不同温度等级和土地覆盖类型2个角度,分别建立并比较不同类样点的地表温度与各指数的拟合模型。结果表明:次高温区域面积比例与人口密度、人均GDP都具有较高的决定系数;地表温度与NDVI、BAEM的二元线性回归决定系数高于地表温度与单一指数的决定系数;将样点分类后,低温点与MNDBI的决定系数高于其他温度等级样点,水域和植被样点与各种指数的决定系数高于其他地物类型样点。     

淮南矿区土地利用变化对区域景观格局的影响

以淮南矿区5期遥感影像图作为基本信息源,利用土地利用转移矩阵和景观格局指数分析了淮南矿区的土地利用变化及其对区域景观格局的影响。土地利用变化相关结果表明:1980 — 2015年淮南矿区及区域土地利用变化主要表现为耕地的减少,建设用地、水域的增加。矿区耕地面积减少117.6 km~2,其中46.7%的面积转换成建设用地,51.2%转换成塌陷水域,其所在区域(流域)耕地减少了274.4 km~2,有63.1%转换成建设用地,33.1%转换成水域。将矿区增加的塌陷水域面积还原作为无采矿活动的对照,分析采矿活动对区域景观格局的影响,结果表明:采矿活动使得区域景观多样性指数增加了0.07,矿区土地利用变化使得区域景观多样性增加、优势度减小,区域景观格局更加趋于多样、均衡。     

云南个旧多金属矿区农田土壤-作物系统重金属污染现状——以乍甸镇为例

对云南个旧市乍甸镇农田土壤和农作物重金属污染现状进行了野外调查及评价。结果表明:农田土壤Pb、Zn、Cu、Cd、As质量比均超出GB 15618—1995《土壤环境质量标准》二级标准,Hg未检出,该地区农田呈现以As、Cd为主多种重金属复合污染。Pb、Zn、Cu、Cd、As土壤有效态质量比与土壤全量呈极显著正相关(p<0.01)。农作物中Cu、As质量比与土壤有效态Cu、As质量比无显著相关,Zn质量比与土壤有效态Zn呈极显著负相关(p<0.01),Cd、Pb质量比与土壤有效态Cd、Pb呈显著正相关(p<0.05)。89%的农作物As超标,油菜籽(Brassica napusL.)As质量比最高,均值达(23.04±14.33)mg/kg(鲜重,下同)。Pb超标率达72%,油菜籽Pb质量比最高,平均为(5.55±2.53)mg/kg。Zn、Cd超标率均为11.11%,超标最严重的油菜籽Zn质量比为(46.65±13.61)mg/kg,Cd质量比为(0.24±0.10)mg/kg。Cu超标率为5.55%,油菜籽Cu质量比最高,达(16.02±2.75)mg/kg。油菜籽对As、Pb、Zn、Cu、Cd的转移系数(农作物可食部分重金属质量比(鲜重)与土壤重金属质量比的比值)远高于其他作物。农作物对Pb、Zn、Cd、As的转移顺序依次为果实类、叶菜类、根茎类,对Cu的转移顺序为果实类、根茎类、叶菜类。农作物以As、Pb污染为主,总体属重度污染。聚类分析得出:油菜籽、青蒜(Allium ampeloprasumL.)和生菜(Lactuca sativaL.var.ramosaHort.)重金属污染严重,不适合在该地区继续种植和食用。     

通用航空安全体系自组织演化动力学机制与模式研究

建立符合通用航空发展规律的通用航空安全管理理论体系,是通用航空发展的前提.本文以通用航空发展特点为基础,应用自组织理论对通用航空发展的组织特性进行了分析,研究了通用航空安全体系自组织生成模式的前提条件和动因,剖析了通用航空安全体系自组织演化的内外部动力因素,以及其相互作用方式和过程,从而解构出通用航空安全体系自组织演化的动力学机制—涨落机制、创新机制、选择机制和学习机制,在此基础上,构建了通用航空安全体系自组织演化动力学模型.最后,结合实际对我国通用航空安全管理体系建设提出了相应的建议.