大型公用建筑项目安全风险“致因-承担”模型

在大型公用建筑项目实施过程中,项目各利益相关者往往片面注重自己对安全风险后果的承担责任和对策研究,忽视对项目总体安全风险的系统分析。其实,不同利益相关者给项目带来的安全风险及对安全风险的后果承担有着高度关联、相互依存的特点。本文借鉴投入产出理论解决问题的思路,建立了安全风险"致因-承担"模型,通过安全风险"致因-承担"分析表对利益相关者的安全风险致因与安全风险承担进行了量化分析,确定了各利益相关者的安全风险"致因-承担"差额,并应用安全风险玫瑰图对评价结果进行了直观的表达和分析,提出了决策者针对不同利益相关者所采取的安全风险管理重点。安全风险"致因-承担"模型为平衡各部门的利益、解决纷争提供了一种行之有效的定量研究技术工具,是对投入产出分析应用领域拓展的一种新尝试。     

青岛市城市资源、基础设施与其经济社会协调发展的定量评价和分析

在分析青岛市城市资源、基础设施条件与其经济社会发展之间关系的基础上．构建了多层次评价指标体系，对城市资源和基础设施这两大因素与青岛市经济社会发展的协调关系进行定量评价。结果表明,2001—2004年期间，青岛市城市盗源、基础设施与其经济社会各年度的协调发展度均大于0．8。其中,经济社会发展水平呈现持续增长的势头，而城市资源和基础设施的发展水平则呈现出波浪型态势。说明后者的发展尚不够稳定；另外．除了2002年城市资源与基础设施的发展超前于经济社会发展水平外。其余年份都是滞后的。今后要进一步加大对青岛市城市资源与基础设旌开发和建设的力度，以满足城市协调可持续发展的要求。     

Demonstrating a correlation between infrastructure and national development

This paper demonstrates a correlation between the extensiveness of infrastructure and national development. This was achieved by considering kilometres of paved roads, kilometres of rail, kilometres of paved runways, quality of shipping ports and quality of urban infrastructure. Data were collected from a variety of sources including the World Bank and the United Nations databases. Measures of the quantity or extensiveness of the infrastructures were normalized based on the populations of the various countries, transforming them into per capita measures, which were then logarithmically transformed to produce indices of the extensiveness of the infrastructures. These indices were then plotted against the national development indicator, the human development index (HDI). Of the infrastructures considered, paved roads per capita index showed the strongest correlation with HDI, while quality of port infrastructure index showed the weakest correlation. When the indices for the different infrastructures were combined into a single index the correlation with HDI appeared to be strongest, highlighting the synergistic effect of different infrastructures when working in tandem. Based on this, the findings of this study support the position of holistically managing a country's infrastructure assets.     

Foundations of community disaster resilience: well-being,identity, services,and capitals

If community disaster resilience is to mature into a robust and lasting area of research, methodologically facilitated dialogue between empirical observations and theory is necessary. However, methodological and empirical research has outpaced community disaster resilience theory. To address this gap, a theoretical framework called WISC is presented. WISC is named after four constructs of the framework: well-being, identity, services, and capitals. WISC relates the two concepts of community and infrastructure, broadly defined, to the four constructs it is named after. The 4 constructs are respectively defined by 29 variables. The broadest interpretation of WISC is that infrastructure supports and facilitates components of community within human settlements. Infrastructure is represented as combinations of capitals and services; community is represented by connections of identity and well-being. Ultimately, well-being of a community is dependent on that community's collective capital. But these two constructs are mediated by the intervening constructs of identity and services. WISC goes beyond existing frameworks by addressing essential elements of theory building that have been overlooked in the literature, while synthesizing other frameworks and areas of knowledge. WISC provides a powerful foundation for posing and evaluating hypotheses, improving data collection efforts, and, most importantly, enabling critical theory building.     

将混凝技术应用于大规模污水处理

介绍采用混凝技术大规模处理运河污水时所遇到的一些问题,以及一些生产经验,提出在设施、设备及工艺方面的相应解决办法。强调设备维护、员工技能和管理机制在生产中的重要性,提出科学地进行设备日常维护的方法。通过小试验,提出对东莞运河水污染治理的一点设想,并解释工程中混凝反应需要足够搅拌力度的问题。     

System dynamics modeling for municipal water demand estimation in an urban region under uncertain economic impacts

Accurate prediction of municipal water demand is critically important to water utilities in fast-growing urban regions for drinking water system planning, design, and water utility asset management. Achieving the desired prediction accuracy is challenging, however, because the forecasting model must simultaneously consider a variety of factors associated with climate changes, economic development, population growth and migration, and even consumer behavioral patterns. Traditional forecasting models such as multivariate regression and time series analysis, as well as advanced modeling techniques (e.g., expert systems and artificial neural networks), are often applied for either short- or long-term water demand projections, yet few can adequately manage the dynamics of a water supply system because of the limitations in modeling structures. Potential challenges also arise from a lack of long and continuous historical records of water demand and its dependent variables. The objectives of this study were to (1) thoroughly review water demand forecasting models over the past five decades, and (2) propose a new system dynamics model to reflect the intrinsic relationship between water demand and macroeconomic environment using out-of-sample estimation for long-term municipal water demand forecasts in a fast-growing urban region. This system dynamics model is based on a coupled modeling structure that takes into account the interactions among economic and social dimensions, offering a realistic platform for practical use. Practical implementation of this water demand forecasting tool was assessed by using a case study under the most recent alternate fluctuations of economic boom and downturn environments.     

安全工程本科专业实习基地建设探讨

实践教学是安全工程本科专业教学过程中一个重要环节,是提高理论与实践综合能力的必经之路。而实习基地是实践教学的平台,实习基地的建设对实践教学的效果起着至关重要的作用。以大工程教育观为指导,针对安全工程专业特点,在分析目前安全工程本科专业实习基地建设存在的问题基础上,运用国外大工程教育观的理念,从提高学生的综合素质,增强学生的工程实践能力,发展学生的创新思维和创新能力为目的出发,提出建设适应大工程教育的安全工程本科专业实习基地的建议。     

国外大尺度生态廊道保护进展与秦岭国家公园建设

大型山脉在其走向上往往是生物扩散和分布的天然廊道。然而,由于人类干扰引起的生境碎片化,山地廊道的连通性已大为降低。20世纪以来,人们普遍意识到当前或过去的自然保护措施往往规模太小,无法维持许多物种的长期生存及其所依赖的生态过程。因而,山地廊道的连通性保护日益受到关注,大尺度生态廊道被认为是长远意义上保护气候变化下生物多样性的最优策略。综述连通性保护和生态廊道的概念、发展历程及国外大尺度生态廊道建设实践的经验,并从连通性保护的角度对秦岭国家公园建设提出一些建议,强调大尺度的连通性保护和生态廊道建设对于国家公园自然生态系统的长远保护具有重要意义。     

基于管理成熟度的大型水利水电工程环境绩效评价研究

借鉴项目管理成熟度模型的研究方法,构建了大型水利水电工程环境管理成熟度模型,对模型的组成、内容和评价方法进行了定义.结合大型水利水电工程施工过程中的生态环境影响因素分析,建立了大型水利水电工程的环境绩效评价体系,并采用数据包络分析(DEA)动态评估模型进行了环境管理成熟模型评价.案例研究表明,大型水利水电工程环境绩效评价结果能较好的反映出工程施工期间的环境管理成熟度水平,并能反映持续改进方面的环境贡献,研究成果对于改善我国大型水利水电工程建设对生态环境的影响及制定相关政策具有重要意义.