模糊群体决策方法在应急决策中的应用

在分析应急预案内容及应急决策特点的基础上,针对应急决策中许多信息无法定量描述的问题,运用模糊集合理论,建立了在事故灾难复杂环境下对应急决策进行动态调整的模糊群体决策方法。该方法包括构造模糊偏好关系、设计备选方案选择的多属性群体决策模型和群体决策一致性的检验标准等内容,可以辅助应急决策者选择最佳决策方案。通过实证表明,该计算方法及实用效果,为突发事故应急预案的制订和事故现场的应急决策提供参考。     

基于潜在分类模型的农田生态补偿标准测算——一个离散选择实验模型的实证

确立科学合理的生态标准是建立和提高社会主义生态文明的关键。本文对当前我国运用选择实验法对农田生态补偿标准估算多假设受访者同质性偏好的现状,运用潜在分类模型(Latent Class Model,LCM)研究武汉市不同类别特征的市民对农田生态服务价值的保有意愿情况,并进一步运用Gold Latent软件测算基于市民支付意愿的武汉市农田生态补偿标准。研究发现:193.5%的武汉市受访市民愿意为保有和改善农田生态系统的服务功能进行一定额度的农田生态补偿标准支付,但仍有部分比例的受访者对农田生态服务价值的全面认知还不够(如空气质量)。2武汉市不同受访市民对农田生态属性的偏好存在异质性,93%的受访市民属于正常偏好型。另有7%的受访市民属于空气质量偏好型。受访者的收入水平、对农田生态服务价值的意识程度和是否愿意进行一定额度的农田生态补偿支付三个变量是影响其类别归属的决定性因素。3正常偏好型和空气质量偏好型市民对于农田生态补偿的支付意愿分别为6 888.74元/hm~2和518.50元/hm~2,计算得到基于武汉市市民平均支付意愿的农田生态补偿标准为7 407.24元/hm~2。研究结果不仅可以为武汉市农田保护制定出更具针对性和合理的农田生态补偿标准提供初步的科学依据,还可以为农田生态补偿筹集到除了中央政府财政转移之外的来自于农田生态服务受益者的资金支付。     

Integrating affective values to sustainable behaviour focused on Kansei engineering

Due to the changes and complications of emerging society, designers are required not only to know about their design values, but also understand the link between their design and the impacts on the users. This paper aims to show a Kansei focused proposition for sustainable behaviour. By investigating the relationship between Subjective Preference (Like-Dislike) and product evaluation, it shows how affective values, which are used in Kansei engineering researches, influence user’s preferences. In this study, it was considering (1) various factors of product (e.g. the view variation and blackness of products), and (2) Reality Sets (Uninominal–Binominal). Car-front-face, car-side, car-multi-aspect (as Uninominal Reality Sets) and combinations of car front and side (as Binominal Reality Sets) were used as stimuli. The experiment consists of item screening and product evaluation. Subjects were participated in both. The aim of item screening was at selecting subjectively preferred/non-preferred images. Images, which were screened through item screening, were reconciliated per subject. The aim of product evaluation was at investigating if Subjective Preference has related to product evaluation. Semantic Differential method was used as product evaluation method. Evaluation values were preference, aesthetic and pleasure. The findings shows: (1) Subjective Preference is related to product evaluation independently in Uninominal Reality Sets, whereas Subjective Preference is related to product evaluation dependently in Binominal Reality Sets (2) partial preferred images influence product evaluation in Uninominal Reality Sets, whereas Binominal Reality Sets do not influence it.     

Using discrete choice experiments to value preferences for air quality improvement: the case of curbing haze in urban China

China's top legislature amended a law that “sets environmental protection as the country's basic policy”, which planned to force regulators to make improvements in air quality. Limited studies have attempted to estimate separate values for attributes of air quality improvements from the perspective of how residents value the reduction of haze and health benefits. We apply a discrete choice experiment to estimate the economic benefits involved in these changes. The analysis demonstrates that residents from urban areas are positively willing to pay for air quality improvement. We further employ a mixed logit model and a latent class model to investigate potential heterogeneity in preferences. The preference heterogeneity is significantly related to individuals' exposure to health risks relating to air quality, which is represented by whether the residence location of the respondent is covered by haze/smog on the interview day.     

基于偏好DEA的海上应急基地运行效率评价

为了发现和解决投入冗余和产出不足问题以提高运行效率,采用数据包络分析(DEA)方法对海上应急基地运行效率进行评价。构建以运营费用和固定投入为输入指标,以应急基地所负责海域的有效面积、救助抵达平均时间、应急出动次数、应急救助成功率为输出指标的评价指标体系,其中救助抵达平均时间为非期望输出指标。将非期望输出指标和决策者的偏好信息引入C2R和C2GS2模型,并用以评价应急基地的运行效率。实证案例表明:所评价的绝大多数的应急基地为非DEA有效,且都为规模递增和可通过增加运营费用和固定投入来提高DEA效率。     

Characteristics and source identification of fine particulate n-alkanes in Beijing, China

Ambient particulate n-alkanes were determined for fine particle (PM2:5) samples collected from Sep 2003 to July 2004 in Beijing, China. The average concentration of total n-alkanes (Pn-alkanes) from C11 to C34 was 425.72 ng/m3, ranged from 7.02 to 2893.28 ng/m3. The concentration distributions of n-alkanes homologues in this study exhibited peaks at C21 and C29 in heating season, and C29 in non-heating season. The average carbon preference index (CPI) value was 1.88 in the range of 1.18–3.88. The maximum CPI in summer indicated the contribution of biogenic origins such as plant wax; while the minimum CPI value in winter was probably a result of fossil fuel combustion. Preliminary estimation from these results showed that 59% of the n-alkanes in PM2:5 in Beijing summer originated from plant wax, while 74%–88% was from fossil fuel combustion in other three seasons. Source estimation was further performed using principal component analysis method. Two major components were yielded accounting for 57.3% and 30.9% of the total variance, which presented the fossil fuel and biogenic contribution, respectively.     

Understanding Anglers’ Preferences for Fishing Tournament Characteristics and Policies

Saltwater fishing tournaments in the United States are generally not regulated nor are there different fishing regulations for tournament and nontournament anglers. Although much is known about those who participate in fishing tournaments in terms of their fishing motivations, attitudes, and characteristics, much less is known at the angler population level regarding their preferences for tournament opportunities. Using a stated preference choice model with hypothetical scenarios to simulate participation choices and understand preferences, study objectives were to identify angler preferences for various types of tournament fishing “products.” Four tournament policy characteristics were investigated: promotion of catch and release, bait restrictions, whether a percentage of the tournament entrance fee should go to support fishery management activities, and whether a tournament should be a nonprofit or profit-making venture. Three expectation attributes were inserted: tournament size, trip cost per day, and whether a tournament is family friendly. We sent seven different versions of the mail questionnaire to 1,633 anglers. Of 795 returns, 648 were used for estimating conditional logit models. Analysis indicated that a scenario with no management interventions was not most preferred. Anglers most preferred a conservation-oriented option that introduced additional management measures. Overall, scenarios with management interventions were more favored than the status quo situation (with no management interventions). Although respondents showed reluctance to adopt other management-related options, results generally indicated they were increasingly concerned with sustainability of fish stocks and potential conflicts between tournament and nontournament users and preferred tournament products that reflect these concerns.     

Urban Flood Problems in Dhaka,Bangladesh: Slum Residents’ Choices for Relocation to Flood-Free Areas

This article applies a stated preference choice model to assess trade-offs that residents of two squatter settlements in Dhaka, Bangladesh might consider if they were given choices for relocation to flood-free areas. The respondents were asked to choose repeatedly from a set of choice cards, which displayed different configurations of financial incentives for relocation, such as free or inexpensive land, loans or nonrepayable grants, and provisions for temporary or permanent employment opportunities. The survey results indicated that despite extensive experience with flood problems, many residents of Mirpur and Vasantek found that certain configurations of economic incentives were not attractive enough for them to relocate to flood-free areas. At the same time, they would prefer a reduction in the risk of flooding at their current location. The economic incentives that would best assist in increasing voluntary relocation of residents from their current locations included free land, nonrepayable grants (Taka 20,000), and long-term employment opportunities. Further, differences in geographic location (i.e., Mirpur vs. Vasantek), income levels, and membership in neighborhood communities were linked with the tendency of residents to stay at their current location.     

Combining Stated Preference and Revealed Preference Methods for the Valuation of Non-market Goods

In this paper, we introduce the combining stated pref- erence and revealed preference methods which is the state-of- the-art method for the valuation of non-market goods. Revealed preference methods an...     

A calibrated auction-conjoint valuation method: Valuing pork and eggs produced under differing animal welfare conditions

This paper develops a valuation method which generates consistent and systematic estimates of people's preferences for complex multi-attribute goods by inextricably linking auction bids with conjoint ratings. The advantage of the valuation approach is that it permits the estimation of people's values for many potential goods, allows one to decompose people's values for a good into its sub-components, and permits the study of preference heterogeneity without distributional assumptions. We apply the method to an important and increasingly controversial topic: animal welfare. The method is used to determine people's preferences for eggs and pork produced from different production systems. Data from experiments conducted in three diverse U.S. locations (Chicago, IL; Dallas, TX; and Wilmington, NC) indicates that people are, on average, willing to pay $0.95 more for a dozen eggs raised in an aviary, pasture system vs. a cage system, and are willing to pay $2.02 more for two-pounds of pork chops raised in a pasture system as opposed to a crate system.