基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,以化工多米诺事故为研究对象,探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法,梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程,并以1个天然气压气站为案例,验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

铁磁流体对煤粒瓦斯解吸性能影响实验研究*

为探究铁磁流体对煤体瓦斯解吸性能的影响,采用水浴恒温吸附解吸系统,开展0.44,0.65,1.14 MPa 3组不同平衡压力下加铁磁流体前后的瓦斯解吸对比实验,根据Langmuir方程经验公式计算瓦斯极限解吸量和初始扩散系数,分析铁磁流体对煤体瓦斯解吸影响的机理。结果表明:在3组不同平衡压力下加入铁磁流体后瓦斯极限解吸量由2.5,10,20 mL/g降低为2.22,3.33,10 mL/g,降低11.2%,66.7%,50%;初始扩散系数由0.997 1,1.629 9,3.888 3 μm2·s降低为0.685 5,0.997 1,2.933 5 μm2·s,降低31.25%,38.82%,24.56%。在铁磁流体的作用下,煤体瓦斯解吸性能得到大幅降低。     

Development of machine learning based prediction models for hazardous properties of chemical mixtures

Lower flammability limit (LFL), upper flammability limit (UFL), auto-ignition temperature (AIT) and flash point (FP) are crucial hazardous properties for fire and explosion hazards assessment and consequence analysis. In this study, a comprehensive prediction model set was constructed by using expanded chemical mixture databases of chemical mixture hazardous properties. Machine learning based gradient boosting quantitative structure-property relationship (GB-QSPR) method is implemented for the first time to improve the model performance and prediction accuracy. The result shows that all developed models have significantly higher accuracy than other regular QSPR models, with the 5-fold cross-validation RMSE of LFL, UFL, AIT, and FP models being 1.06, 1.14, 1.08, and 1.17, respectively. All developed QSPR models can be used to estimate reliable chemical mixture hazardous properties and provide useful guidance in chemical mixture hazard assessment and consequence analysis.     

Effects of nitrogen and carbon dioxide on hydrogen explosion behaviors near suppression limit

By varying inert gas content, equivalence ratio and initial pressure, this study is aimed at investigating flame propagation behaviors and explosion pressure characteristics near suppression limit. For carbon dioxide, the weakest flame floating phenomenon is observed at Φ = 1.5 and the buoyant instability is enhanced when the equivalent ratio deviates to the rich and lean sides. For nitrogen, the buoyant instability decreases with increasing equivalent ratio. Both maximum explosion pressure and maximum pressure rise rate increase firstly and then decrease with the increase of equivalence ratio, and they decrease significantly with increasing content of carbon dioxide and nitrogen. For carbon dioxide, the critical suppression ratio of Φ = 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 is 7.50, 7.18, 5.74, 3.83, and 2.87. For nitrogen, the critical suppression ratio of Φ = 0.6, 0.8, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 is 15.83, 11.87, 9.50, 6.33 and 4.75. Compared to nitrogen, the carbon dioxide is more effective on suppressing hydrogen explosion pressure. The adiabatic flame temperature, thermal diffusivity and mole fraction of active radicals continue to decrease with increasing content of carbon dioxide and nitrogen, which contributes to the decrease of laminar burning velocity.     

Lower flammability limits of flammable ternary organic mixtures: Synergistic behavior

Organic flammable liquids and their mixtures, which possess high risk of combustion and explosion, are widely used as raw materials and solvents in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Lower flammability limits (LFL) is one of the most important parameters to characterize the combustion and explosion hazards of combustible gases and liquid vapors. The LFL of various ternary organic mixtures consist of ketone (acetone and butanone), ester (ethyl acetate) and alcohol (ethanol and isopropanol) were tested at 25 °C and atmospheric pressure. The results showed that resulted LFL values of the experiment were always lower than those calculated by volume fraction weighting method when the volume fraction of alcohol was less than 20 vol% but more than 10 vol%. The co-existence of alcohol and ethyl acetate had synergistic effect on reducing the LFL values of ternary organic mixtures and thus increased their explosive risk. The mechanism of synergistic effect was analyzed, and the results showed that the OH· and H· radicals produced by the oxidation decomposition of alcohols and esters accelerated the oxidation process of ternary organic mixtures, which led to the decrease of experimental LFL values and thus corresponding increased of their explosive risk. This study would be expected to provide some guidance for designing or choosing safer and more suitable ternary organic mixtures prior to their applications for engineering.     

Sulfur cycle as an electron mediator between carbon and nitrate in a constructed wetland microcosm

• Fe(III) accepted the most electrons from organics, followed by NO₃^‒, SO₄^2‒, and O₂. • The electrons accepted by SO₄^2‒ could be stored in the solid AVS, FeS₂-S, and S⁰. • The autotrophic denitrification driven by solid S had two-phase characteristics. • A conceptual model involving electron acceptance, storage, and donation was built. • S cycle transferred electrons between organics and NO₃^‒ with an efficiency of 15%. A constructed wetland microcosm was employed to investigate the sulfur cycle-mediated electron transfer between carbon and nitrate. Sulfate accepted electrons from organics at the average rate of 0.84 mol/(m³·d) through sulfate reduction, which accounted for 20.0% of the electron input rate. The remainder of the electrons derived from organics were accepted by dissolved oxygen (2.6%), nitrate (26.8%), and iron(III) (39.9%). The sulfide produced from sulfate reduction was transformed into acid-volatile sulfide, pyrite, and elemental sulfur, which were deposited in the substratum, storing electrons in the microcosm at the average rate of 0.52 mol/(m³·d). In the presence of nitrate, the acid-volatile and elemental sulfur were oxidized to sulfate, donating electrons at the average rate of 0.14 mol/(m³·d) and driving autotrophic denitrification at the average rate of 0.30 g N/(m³·d). The overall electron transfer efficiency of the sulfur cycle for autotrophic denitrification was 15.3%. A mass balance assessment indicated that approximately 50% of the input sulfur was discharged from the microcosm, and the remainder was removed through deposition (49%) and plant uptake (1%). Dominant sulfate-reducing (i.e., Desulfovirga, Desulforhopalus, Desulfatitalea, and Desulfatirhabdium) and sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (i.e., Thiohalobacter, Thiobacillus, Sulfuritalea, and Sulfurisoma), which jointly fulfilled a sustainable sulfur cycle, were identified. These results improved understanding of electron transfers among carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur cycles in constructed wetlands, and are of engineering significance.     

Cancer and Non-Cancer Health Risk from Eating Cassava Grown in Some Mining Communities in Ghana

Food crops such as cassava, cocoyam and other tuber crops grown in mining communities uptake toxic or hazardous chemicals such as arsenic, and cadmium, from the soil. Cassava is a stable food for Ghanaians. This study evaluated human health risk from eating cassava grown in some mining communities in Ghana such as Bogoso, Prestea, Tarkwa and Tamso, which are important mining towns in the Western Region of Ghana. The study evaluated cancer and non-cancer health effects from eating cassava grown in the study areas in accordance with US Environmental Protection Agency’s Risk Assessment guidelines. The results of the study revealed the following: cancer health risk for Tamso, 0.098 (RME – Reasonable Maximum Exposure) and 0.082 (CTE – Central Tendency Exposure). This means that approximately 10 and 8 out of 100 resident adults are likely to suffer from cancer related cases by RME and CTE parameters respectively. For Prestea, we have 0.010 and 0.12, which also means that approximately 1 out of 100 and 10 resident adults out of 100 are also likely to suffer from cancer related diseases by RME and CTE parameters. The results of the study obtained were found to be above the acceptable cancer risk range of 1× 10⁻⁶ to 1× 10⁻⁴, i.e., 1 case of cancer out of 1 million or 100,000 people respectively.     

Dissipation of Endosulfan and Dichlorvos Residues In/On Cauliflower Curds

Dissipation behaviour of endosulfan and dichlorvos in/on cauliflower, variety Snowball-16, was studied during rabi season (Sep.–March) 2003–2004. Endosulfan and dichlorvos were sprayed @ 350 and 110g a.i. with 115 g a.i., respectively, 80 days after transplanting. Samples were taken at the interval of 0 (1h after spray), 3, 5, 7, and 10 days after spray (DAS) in triplicate and residues were estimated on GC-ECD system equipped with capillary column. The initial deposits of 3.452 and 0.295μgg⁻¹ of endosulfan and dichlorvos dissipated to 0.084 (97.56%) and 0.009 (96.95%), respectively after 10 DAS. Residues of endosulfan reached below maximum residue limit of 2μgg⁻¹ one day after spray and of dichlorvos were below MRL value of 0.5μgg⁻¹ even on 0 day. Dissipation pattern followed first order kinetics for both the insecticides with half life periods of 1.81 and 2.08 days for endosulfan and dichlorvos, respectively.     

Safe speed limits for a safe system: The relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate for different crash types

Objective: The objective of this article is to provide empirical evidence for safe speed limits that will meet the objectives of the Safe System by examining the relationship between speed limit and injury severity for different crash types, using police-reported crash data.

Method: Police-reported crashes from 2 Australian jurisdictions were used to calculate a fatal crash rate by speed limit and crash type. Example safe speed limits were defined using threshold risk levels.

Results: A positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatality rate was found. For an example fatality rate threshold of 1 in 100 crashes it was found that safe speed limits are 40 km/h for pedestrian crashes; 50 km/h for head-on crashes; 60 km/h for hit fixed object crashes; 80 km/h for right angle, right turn, and left road/rollover crashes; and 110 km/h or more for rear-end crashes.

Conclusions: The positive exponential relationship between speed limit and fatal crash rate is consistent with prior research into speed and crash risk. The results indicate that speed zones of 100 km/h or more only meet the objectives of the Safe System, with regard to fatal crashes, where all crash types except rear-end crashes are exceedingly rare, such as on a high standard restricted access highway with a safe roadside design.     

北京和上海典型复合包装废物处置环境影响比较

采用生命周期评价法研究比较了北京和上海两地纸塑铝复合包装处置阶段的环境影响。通过现场和资料调研的方式获得此阶段的能量物质的输入输出和环境外排数据。结果表明:北京和上海两地纸塑铝复合包装处置阶段的环境影响潜值分别为-0.428 Pt和9.776 Pt,其主要集中在气候变化、土地占用和无机物对健康的损害三方面;每提高10%的回收率,其环境影响潜值北京和上海可分别降低5.446 Pt和5.799 Pt;上海地区纸塑铝复合包装处置阶段对环境的影响在任何同回收率的情况都要高于北京地区,其主要原因是上海地区填埋产生的温室气体释放量过大和再生企业距离打包点较远。