基于机器学习的电热防除冰表面温度变化趋势预测

针对飞机部件周期控制律电加热防除冰的应用,提出基于机器学习以预测电加热防除冰表面温度的变化趋势.依靠大型结冰风洞及其电加热防除冰控制系统完成防除冰试验,获得有效的试验数据,以通、断电周期为分割单元,将试验数据划分成验证集和训练集.根据电热防除冰过程的换热情况,构建样本的特征参数,利用机器学习的有监督学习方式,选择KNN近邻回归算法和局部线性加权回归算法预测温度变化率,再转换为温度,得到的温度变化与测量数据的线性相关性达到80％以上的高相似度结果,表明使用机器学习可快速预测电热防除冰部件的表面温度变化趋势,且不同的回归算法针对模型不同测温点位置的预测效果存在差异.     

(M)VOC and composting facilities. Part 2: (M)VOC dispersal in the environment

BACKGROUND, AIMS AND SCOPE: Composting facilities are known to release odorous volatiles due to biodegradation of municipal waste and plant residues. Although odour perception and its grading is influenced by experience, attitude and adaptation, these emissions have created a lack of acceptance for residents in the vicinity of composting facilities. Enclosure of compost pile halls, ventilation systems and biofilters are often insufficient to minimise the burden of compost-derived compounds in the air. Moreover, economic considerations forced smaller communities to establish less sophisticated facilities with open storage areas and other relevant sources for wind-borne dispersal of bioaerosols. Aim of the present study was to characterise the immission and dispersal of microbial volatiles (MVOC) and, besides, to find coincidences between MVOC and compost odour. METHODS: In the course of this study, the surroundings of two composting facilities, differing in their type of process engineering, were investigated for emission of volatiles in the environment. Both microbially and plant-derived substances were assessed, several of which have low odour thresholds. Air samples were taken in distances ranging from 50 to 800 m in a downwind direction from each facility. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Compost-derived and microbial volatile organic compounds (MVOC) were found at distances of up to 800 m from the composting facilities. Terpenes like alpha-pinene, camphene and camphor were the dominant compounds and coincided with typical compost odour, whereas several typical MVOC were not found at greater distances. The terpenes in combination with certain MVOC may play an important role in the perception of compost odour. Exposure concentrations were not of toxicological relevance, but sensory irritation and psychohygienic effects due to an annoyance potential of such compounds should not be dismissed. RECOMMENDATIONS AND OUTLOOK: Although terpenes are generally associated with pleasant odour characteristics, they seemed to contribute to malodours in a mixture with other VOC, in this context of volatile waste from compost facilities. Malodorous emissions from biowaste have to be considered as sources of health complaints and the investigation of mixtures of compost-derived volatiles is still inevitable. Exposure levels have to be discussed taking VOC mixtures into account. Within composting facilities, technical devices have to be improved to minimise dispersal of volatiles to prevent residents from immissions eventually causing health complaints.     

Effects of uncontrolled particulate matter release on precipitation under warfare conditions

This study has shown theoretical, observed and experimental evidence of pollutants released, transported and deposited during the Kosovo conflict in 1999 and their effects on precipitation in Serbia. The greatest bombardment of the chemical industry, oil refineries and fuel storage in Serbia which occurred during April, resulted in releases of many hazardous, toxic and cancerogenic substances. The number of April's days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm in 1999 are compared to those in the period from 1961 to 1990 registered at thirty meteorological stations in Serbia and especially at the Belgrade-Observatory station in the period from 1888 to 1995. The maximums of days with precipitation greater or equal to 0.1 mm were at the wider Belgrade area and at the central and southwestern parts of Serbia during April 1999. This is confirmed by using the Eta trajectory analysis.     

高温高含二氧化碳条件下五种含Cr钢适用性评价

目的 预测某高温高含二氧化碳油井中管柱的腐蚀情况,为该油井推荐安全经济的材质。方法 采用高温高压反应釜模拟现场工况进行腐蚀试验,通过失重法、扫描电子显微镜(SEM)和X射线能谱分析(EDS)对五种含Cr钢的适用性进行评价。结果 在40~160 ℃温度范围内,五种钢材随温度的升高,其均匀腐蚀速率先升高后降低,且均在80 ℃时达到最大值。3Cr钢的腐蚀速率最高,在整个温度范围内,均远高于0.076 mm/a。在温度为120 ℃时,9Cr钢开始出现局部腐蚀。在温度为160 ℃时,13Cr钢有一定的局部腐蚀倾向。S13Cr、22Cr钢在整个温度范围内的腐蚀速率都较低,试验后试样表面平整连续,耐蚀性能好。结论 建议在采出井井筒中上部40~80 ℃较低温度井段选用9Cr钢,中部80~120 ℃中高温井段选用13Cr钢,底部120~160 ℃高温井段选用S13Cr钢。     

南方丘陵山区典型地物景观特征尺度研究

景观的特征尺度反映了人与自然交互作用的空间过程,合理识别景观空间结构及其特征尺度有助于遥感影像景观空间异质性分析。论文以地处南方丘陵山区的福建省福州市为研究区,针对城市、农田、森林与水域4种地物景观,基于SPOT 10 m影像,分别利用半方差分析、小波分析与平均局部方差方法,开展景观特征尺度研究。结果表明:①不同景观类型的空间异质性差异较大,其中森林景观空间异质性最大,其次为城市、农田景观,水域的空间异质性最小;②小波方差分析和半方差分析分别检测到两个不同的特征尺度,而局部方差仅仅检测到较小的空间结构;③森林景观特征尺度比通常偏小,与南方丘陵山区破碎地形有关,城市景观更多体现为人类活动的影响,南方丘陵山区城市景观至少具有两种不同的空间结构,其特征尺度均较小,农田景观特征尺度最大。基于小波分析与半方差各自的特点,总结提炼出综合两种方法合理识别景观特征尺度的基本流程,即:首先开展小波分析,然后在此基础上利用半方差分析多种理论模型组合从而获得更详细的特征尺度信息,模型组合个数与参数初始值依据小波分析的结果而定。     

区域COD、SO_2及TSP排放的空间自相关分析:以江苏省为例

空间自相关分析是空间统计学的一个重要组成部分,是认识空间格局的有效手段.针对研究的空间范围不同,常采用全局空间自相关和局部空间自相关来衡量区域空间自相关程度.利用江苏省1990~2006年13个省辖市COD、SO2和TSP排放量数据,采用空间自相关分析方法对江苏省环境污染排放区域异质性进行了研究.结果表明,江苏省COD和TSP排放总量分别从1990年的596 353 t和1 101 404 t显著下降到2006年的291 762 t和704 734 t,SO2排放量基本保持稳定;江苏省COD、SO2和TSP排放的空间自相关性随时间推移正在发生着变化,到2006年COD、SO2和TSP排放的Global Moran’s I分别达到0.465 7、0.214 2和0.510 1,呈现较显著的正空间自相关趋势,空间上的集聚分布格局业已形成,且COD排放先于SO2和TSP排放在空间呈现集聚格局,空间集聚的程度也较大;苏南与苏北的污染排放格局差异较大,苏南COD、SO2和TSP排放的Global Moran’s I值至2006年分别增加到0.499 7、0.320 2和0.298 3,集聚格局明显,而苏北COD、SO2...     

基于水生态文明建设的地方水环境资源立法研究

水生态文明是生态文明的重要组成和基础保障,是实现生态文明的重要支撑.进行水生态文明建设的重要基础保障是法律,而法律保障中最基础的一个环节就是立法,因此通过立法来保障水生态文明建设成为必然的趋势.选取江苏这一地区,从地方法治的角度出发,分析江苏省水生态文明建设在立法取得的成果以及存在的应当注意的问题.在此基础上结合江苏省的特殊省情,从立法的重点内容、立法程序以及立法监督三个方面提出完善地方水生态文明立法的建议.     

政府环境监管与企业最优环境策略的博弈

随着我国经济的快速发展,伴随而来的是日趋严峻的环境污染,而在政府环境监管的背景下,各个利益相关者之间的博弈在环保效果实施中发挥了很大的作用。利用博弈论的分析方法,建立了一个关于中央政府、地方政府和企业三个利益相关者之间的利益博弈模型,通过对该模型的求解得出三方的平衡状态。最后针对如何实现政府高效监管和企业最优环境策略,向博弈三方共同努力推动社会经济可持续发展提供了相关政策建议。     

Examining strategic sustainability plans and smart-growth land-use measures in California cities

Given many potential obstacles, what types of strategic plans and measures for climate protection and/or energy sustainability are more likely than others to be adopted by cities? What are the key internal and external obstacles to adopting and implementing these plans and measures? Based on data obtained from a survey conducted from 2010 to 2011 and other sources, this paper develops a framework derived from political contracting theory and strategic orientation literature to examine how public management obstacles, socio-economic factors, and political factors influence a city's likelihood of having strategic energy sustainability plans and measures in place. Moreover, this paper finds that many California cities remain reluctant to require residents and businesses to comply with more challenging sustainability measures, such as smart-growth land-use practices, and that those cities with a strategic energy sustainability plan already in place tend to be more willing to adopt smart-growth land-use measures.     

Planning for compact urban forms: local growth-management approaches and their evolution over time

Urban growth is a key issue for spatial planning as it influences urban patterns and disrupts open landscapes. To effectively steer urban growth towards compact urban forms, many growth-management policies have been developed over recent decades. However, few studies have assessed how municipal policy mixes have evolved over time. In our representative Swiss-wide survey, we evaluated the prevalence and the time of introduction of 18 policies. Our results indicate that large municipalities use a broad range of reinforcing policies over decades. In contrast, small municipalities mostly rely on conventional land-use regulations. The lack of innovative, incentive-based policies casts doubt on small municipalities' ability to effectively manage urban growth. However, our analyses reveal recent efforts by small municipalities to diversify approaches to growth management and adopt innovative policies. These efforts should be supported by guiding small municipalities in their policy choices, and providing support to those lacking planning capacity.