Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.     

鲤鱼对三种硝基芳族化合物的摄取、释放和生物富集

用第二松花江水和鱼体中多次检出的三种硝基芳族化合物来分别测定鲤鱼体中的生物富集系数（ＢＣＦ），摄取和释放动力学参数，以及在肌肉、肠、肝和鳃等组织中的分布。试验在半静态条件下进行。硝基芳族化合物在鲤鱼体内的释放可用双区一级动力学模型很好地描述。鲤鱼对２，４－二硝基甲苯和对硝基氯苯的富集过程中发现有未知的代谢产物生成。     

上海市松江镇饮用水水源区的保护与环境管理方案

保护集镇饮用水河流是当前水污染防治工作的重点。本文通过现状分析，针对城乡结合部河流以面源为主的特点，找出影响饮用水河流水质的主要污染源及污水排放特征．用系统分析方法，将集镇的经济、人口、环境统计资料作为环境管理模型的主要输入信息，经计算机仿真，得出保护水源水质应采取的对策与治理方案。     

陆地生物配体模型（t-BLM）初探：镁离子降低铜离子对小麦根的毒性

生物配体模型(BLM)同时考虑了水中金属离子的化学形态以及阳离子与金属离子在生物配体(BL)上的竞争对其毒性的影响,能成功预测水体金属的生物毒性/有效性.最近,BLM呈现出向土壤环境中拓展的趋势,发展能预测重金属对土壤生物毒性的陆地生物配体模型(t-BLM)正成为最新的国际研究热点.论文模拟土壤溶液,以土壤溶液中的主要阳离子Mg2+为例,通过单因素浓度控制-恒pH营养液培养-陆生植物根伸长抑制试验,定量探讨了不同浓度Mg2+存在下,铜离子(Cu2+)对小麦(Triticum aestivum)根的毒性.结果表明,Mg2+浓度升高显著减弱了Cu2+对小麦根的毒性,即呈现出保护效应.证实陆地生态系统中也存在阳离子对重金属植物毒性的保护效应,支持了BLM中阳离子和重金属离子在生物配体上存在竞争结合的假设,即BLM概念适用于陆生植物.定量分析表明,小麦根生长抑制的毒性效应指标EC50(以自由铜离子活度表示)与自由镁离子活度间存在良好的相关性,线性回归方程为:pEC50(Cu2+)=-0.36(Mg2+)+6.47(r2=0.9976),Mg2+对Cu2+毒性的影响强度可以通过该方程进行预测.论文积累了重金属铜对典型陆生受试植物小麦的毒性数据,探讨了t-BLM的构建方法学,并为其发展提供了思路.联合了土壤理化性质、金属形态及生物积累和毒性效应的t-BLM,将提供一个环境风险评价和制定土壤质量标准的新工具.     

生态毒理基因组学——后基因组时代生态毒理学的新领域

基因组学、蛋白组学和代谢组学技术为生态毒理学的发展提供了生物高通量的技术手段,构成了新的交叉学科——生态毒理基因组学.生态毒理基因组学着重研究环境毒物暴露下非靶生物基因和蛋白的表达,能够在基因组水平上更深入地理解环境污染物的致毒机制,同时,它引进生物标志物为生态风险评价提供了平台.论文对生态毒理基因组学的发展历程、技术支持、模式生物及其在生态风险评价方面的应用进行了综述,以推动生态毒理基因组学技术在我国的进一步发展.     

环境约束下牧区人口和种群持续增长模型研究

利用多元统计分析方法,对青海湖地区历年人口和种群的统计数据进行分析,并建立在环境约束下人口和种群持续增长模型,对区域人口适度规模、畜群最大环境容纳量和最大持续产量进行了估算和分析。通过估算得出:青海湖地区牦牛环境容纳量为51.9327万头,最大可持续产量为12.9831万头;藏羊环境容纳量为231.203万只,最大可持续产量为57.8007万只。在此分析的基础上,利用建立的相关模型以5a为时间段对青海湖地区未来25a的人口和牲畜数量进行了预测。最后,针对性地提出了大力改善草地生态环境、提高草地利用率和增加草地面积、采取人为措施调节牲畜出栏率、改变草畜生态环境等高原牧区人口、资源与环境可持续发展的对策。     

Emergence of increased division of labor as a function of group size

Empirical evidence suggests that division of labor in insect societies is positively related to group size both within and across taxa. Response threshold models (RTM) have been commonly used to analyze patterns of division of labor. However, these models have been explored empirically and theoretically for only a limited number of tasks, and few studies have examined predictions of the model as colony size and work availability change. We theoretically examine how group size influences division of labor using a fixed response-threshold model. We simultaneously explore how expected by-products of increased colony size, including demand (total work need relative to total work force available) and task number, affect this relationship. Our results indicate that both low demand and high task number positively influence division of labor. We suggest that these changes parallel what is observed within social groups as their size increases, and that, in part, the commonly observed increased division of labor with increasing group size is emergent.     

水文因素影响稻田氮磷流失的研究进展

水文因素为农田氮磷元素的迁移提供了动力和载体,对稻田氮磷元素的流失具有重要影响。利用新型的稻田水分管理模式以代替传统的水分管理模式,对于有效控制面源污染具有重要意义。在综合调研国内外已有研究成果和最新进展的基础上,阐述了稻田氮磷流失特征、传统水分管理模式的弊端,并从新型稻田水分管理模式的种类、削减氮磷流失的效果与机理、与水平衡模型、营养负荷模型等结合应用等几个方面综述了国内外水文因素影响稻田氮磷流失的研究现状。进行稻田土壤吸附氮磷容量及人工调节机制的研究,在部分地区开展流域化水分管理系统研究,以及适用于我国稻田的水平衡模型和营养负荷模型的建立和深入研究应为今后我国关于水文因素影响稻田氮磷流失方面研究的一些方向。     

An architectural model of spring wheat: Evaluation of the effects of population density and shading on model parameterization and performance

ADELwheat is an architectural model that describes development of wheat in 3D. This paper analyzes the robustness of the parameterization of ADELwheat for spring wheat cultivars in relation to plant population density and shading. The model was evaluated using data from two spring wheat experiments with three plant population densities and two light regimes. Model validation was done at two levels of aggregation: (a) by comparing parameterization functions used as well as parameter values to the data (leaf and tiller appearance, leaf number, blade dimensions, sheath length, internode length) and (b) by comparing ground cover (GC) and leaf area index (LAI) of simulated virtual wheat plots with GC and LAI calculated from data. A sensitivity analysis was performed by modulating parameters defining leaf blade dimensions and leaf or tiller appearance rate.In contrast to population density, shading generally increased phyllochron and delayed tiller appearance. Both at the level of the organ and at the level of the canopy the model performed satisfactorily. Parameterization functions in the model that had been established previously applied to independent data for different conditions; GC and LAI were simulated adequately at three population densities. Sensitivity analysis revealed that calibration of phyllochron and blade area needs to be accurate to prevent disproportional deviations in output.The robustness of the model parameterization and the simulation performance confirmed that the model is a complete architectural model for aboveground development of spring wheat. It can be used in studies that require simulation of spring wheat structure, such as studies on plant–insect interaction, remote sensing, and light interception.     

运用SCI-GROW模型预测农药对地下水的污染风险

在对美国环境保护局开发的地下水暴露评价模型进行比较的基础上,选择SCI-GROW模型预测我国福建省甘蔗种植区5种常用农药对地下水的污染风险,并将模型预测结果与该地区地下水中农药的实测结果进行比较,对模型进行验证.结果表明,模型预测结果与实测结果之间具有很好的相关性,SCI-GROW模型能较好地用于我国东南沿海等地下水位较高、降水量较大、土壤砂性等地下水易受污染地区农药的筛选评价.最后,运用SCI-GROW模型预测涕灭威等17种我国常用农药对地下水的污染风险,为这些农药的科学使用提供参考.