基于天然气管线泄漏蒸汽云爆炸危害分析

基于历史数据和试验建立和改进相应的数学模型,初步建立了定量分析研究天然气管线泄漏蒸汽云爆炸和毒气危害后果计算方法,为天然气管线风险评估、风险管理、管线维护以及蒸汽云爆炸和毒气危害发生后的危害后果评估提供决策支持.     

Predicting species distributions from samples collected along roadsides

Predictive models of species distributions are typically developed with data collected along roads. Roadside sampling may provide a biased (nonrandom) sample; however, it is currently unknown whether roadside sampling limits the accuracy of predictions generated by species distribution models. We tested whether roadside sampling affects the accuracy of predictions generated by species distribution models by using a prospective sampling strategy designed specifically to address this issue. We built models from roadside data and validated model predictions at paired locations on unpaved roads and 200 m away from roads (off road), spatially and temporally independent from the data used for model building. We predicted species distributions of 15 bird species on the basis of point-count data from a landbird monitoring program in Montana and Idaho (U.S.A.). We used hierarchical occupancy models to account for imperfect detection. We expected predictions of species distributions derived from roadside-sampling data would be less accurate when validated with data from off-road sampling than when it was validated with data from roadside sampling and that model accuracy would be differentially affected by whether species were generalists, associated with edges, or associated with interior forest. Model performance measures (kappa, area under the curve of a receiver operating characteristic plot, and true skill statistic) did not differ between model predictions of roadside and off-road distributions of species. Furthermore, performance measures did not differ among edge, generalist, and interior species, despite a difference in vegetation structure along roadsides and off road and that 2 of the 15 species were more likely to occur along roadsides. If the range of environmental gradients is surveyed in roadside-sampling efforts, our results suggest that surveys along unpaved roads can be a valuable, unbiased source of information for species distribution models.     

第三方挖掘作用下管道可靠性评估研究

为研究第三方损坏中挖掘作用对管道可靠性的定量影响,阐述了第三方挖掘作用下管道失效模式与失效机理,确定了管道第三方挖掘作用下的2个极限状态:穿孔失效和凹陷—划伤失效,提出了1种综合考虑管道运行及管理条件,建立了管道第三方挖掘极限状态方程求解其失效概率的模型。以某长输天然气管道为例,基于蒙特卡洛模拟计算了研究管段的失效概率值,并进行了参数的敏感性分析。结果表明,该方法能够定量描述第三方挖掘对管道可靠性的影响程度,评估结果便于管理者制定相应的维修维护策略。     

Applying habitat and population-density models to land-cover time series to inform IUCN Red List assessments

The IUCN (International Union for Conservation of Nature) Red List categories and criteria are the most widely used framework for assessing the relative extinction risk of species. The criteria are based on quantitative thresholds relating to the size, trends, and structure of species’ distributions and populations. However, data on these parameters are sparse and uncertain for many species and unavailable for others, potentially leading to their misclassification or classification as data deficient. We devised an approach that combines data on land-cover change, species-specific habitat preferences, population abundance, and dispersal distance to estimate key parameters (extent of occurrence, maximum area of occupancy, population size and trend, and degree of fragmentation) and hence predict IUCN Red List categories for species. We applied our approach to nonpelagic birds and terrestrial mammals globally (∼15,000 species). The predicted categories were fairly consistent with published IUCN Red List assessments, but more optimistic overall. We predicted 4.2% of species (467 birds and 143 mammals) to be more threatened than currently assessed and 20.2% of data deficient species (10 birds and 114 mammals) to be at risk of extinction. Incorporating the habitat fragmentation subcriterion reduced these predictions 1.5–2.3% and 6.4–14.9% (depending on the quantitative definition of fragmentation) for threatened and data deficient species, respectively, highlighting the need for improved guidance for IUCN Red List assessors on the application of this aspect of the IUCN Red List criteria. Our approach complements traditional methods of estimating parameters for IUCN Red List assessments. Furthermore, it readily provides an early-warning system to identify species potentially warranting changes in their extinction-risk category based on periodic updates of land-cover information. Given our method relies on optimistic assumptions about species distribution and abundance, all species predicted to be more at risk than currently evaluated should be prioritized for reassessment.     

Road traffic and nearby grassland bird patterns in a suburbanizing landscape

An extensive road system with rapidly increasing traffic produces diverse ecological effects that cover a large land area. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of roads with different traffic volumes on surrounding avian distributions, and its importance relative to other variables. Grassland bird data (5 years) for 84 open patches in an outer suburban/rural landscape near Boston were analyzed relative to: distance from roads with 3000–8000 to >30,000 vehicles/day; open-habitat patch size; area of quality microhabitat within a patch; adjacent land use; and distance to other open patches. Grassland bird presence and regular breeding correlated significantly with both distance from road and habitat patch size. Distance to nearest other open patch, irrespective of size, was not significant. Similarly, except for one species, adjacent land use, in this case built area, was not significant. A light traffic volume of 3000–8000 vehicles/day (local collector street here) had no significant effect on grassland bird distribution. For moderate traffic of 8000–15,000 (through street), there was no effect on bird presence although regular breeding was reduced for 400 m from a road. For heavier traffic of 15,000–30,000 (two-lane highway), both bird presence and breeding were decreased for 700 m. For a heavy traffic volume of ≥30,000 vehicles/day (multilane highway), bird presence and breeding were reduced for 1200 m from a road. The results suggest that avian studies and long-term surveys near busy roads may be strongly affected by traffic volume or changes in volume. We conclude that road ecology, especially the effects extending outward >100 m from roads with traffic, is a sine qua non for effective land-use and transportation policy.     

Bioassessment of silvicultural impacts in streams and wetlands of the Eastern United States

Bioassessment is a useful tool to determine the impact of logging practices on the biological integrity of streams and wetlands. Measuring biota directly has an intuitive appeal for impact assessment, and biota can be superior indicators to physical or chemical characteristics because they can reflect cumulative impacts over time. Logging can affect stream and wetland biota by increasing sedimentation rates, altering hydrologic, thermal, and chemical regimes, and changing the base of food webs. Biotic impacts of logging on streams compared to wetlands probably differ, and in this paper we review some of those differences. In streams, invertebrates, fishes, amphibians, algae, and macrophytes have been used as indicators of logging impacts. In wetlands, bioassessment is just beginning to be used, and plants and birds are the most promising indicator taxa. Various best management practices (BMPs) have been developed to reduce the impacts of logging on stream and wetland biota, and we review quantitative studies that have evaluated the efficacy of some of these techniques in streams and wetlands in the eastern United States. Remarkably few studies that address the overall efficacy of BMPs in limiting biotic changes in streams and wetlands after BMP implementation have been published in scientific journals, although some work exists in reports or is unpublished. We review these works, and compile conclusions about BMP efficacy for biota from this body of research.     

Importance of landscape heterogeneity to wood storks in Florida Everglades

Declines in populations of and reproductive success of wood storks and other wading birds have occurred in the Florida Everglades over the past several decades. These declines have been concurrent with major changes in the Everglades’ landscape characteristics. Among the plausible hypotheses that relate to landscape change are the following: (1) general loss of habitat; (2) heavy loss of specific habitat, namely, short-hydroperiod wetlands that provide high prey availability early in the breeding season; and (3) an increase in frequency of major drying out of the central slough areas, which can affect prey availability late in the breeding season. These three hypotheses were compared using an individual-based model of wood stork (Mycteria americana) reproduction. This model simulated the behavior and energetics of each individual wood stork in a breeding colony on 15-min time intervals. Changes in water depth and prey availability occurred on daily time steps. Simulation results showed a threshold response in reproductive success to reduction of wetland heterogeneity. Model comparisons in which (1) only short-hydroperiod wetlands were removed and (2) wetlands of both long and short hydroperiods were removed showed that, for the same loss of total area, the specific habitat removal caused a much greater reduction in wood stork reproduction, indicating hypothesis 2 may be a more likely explanation than hypothesis 1. Reduction of initial prey availability in the central slough areas (simulating frequent drying; hypothesis 3) reduced fledging success by an average of more than 90% in the model.     

西安城区大气有机氯农药的污染特征及来源分析

采用大流量主动采样器于2008年7—10月对西安城区大气进行采集,共获得颗粒态和气态样品24个,并对其中含有的17种有机氯农药(OCPs)进行了分析.结果表明:西安城区大气中ρ(α-硫丹)和ρ(β-硫丹)最高,分别为260.7和212.0pg m3,ρ(DDTs)(DDTs=o,p′-DDD+o,p′-DDT+o,p′-DDE+p,p′-DDD+p,p′-DDT+p,p′-DDE)为167.4pgm3,ρ(HCHs)(HCHs=α-HCH+β-HCH+γ-HCH)为199.3pgm3,ρ(trans-氯丹)和ρ(cis-氯丹)分别为104.0和97.3pgm3,ρ(六氯苯)为74.9pgm3,且都主要分布在气相中.来源分析表明,西安大气中DDTs受三氯杀螨醇的影响显著,而HCHs则主要来源于林丹的使用残留.α-HCH,HCB,p,p′-DDE及p,p′-DDT主要受污染物长距离传输影响,而γ-HCH,trans-氯丹,cis-氯丹,α-硫丹和β-硫丹主要受采样点周边地表挥发的影响.     

某万亩果园野生动物生态环境现状及改善措施研究

为了初步了解万亩果园湿地生态公园的野生动物种类及分布情况,采用线路调查为主,点面结合的方法对园内的野生动物展开调查.调查结果显示:该园中野生动物以鸟类为主,共有5目19科32种,且以雀形目为主.从食性来看,食虫鸟类最多,占万亩果园鸟类总数的53.1％.从居留型来看,鸟类以留鸟居多,共有28种,占总种数的87.5％.通过分析生态环境现状影响野生动物栖息的原因,提出了增加植被配置、设立相对封闭区域和加强农药使用管理的改善措施.     

Migration as an adaptive strategy to climate variability: a study of the Tonga‐speaking people of Southern Zambia

There is increasing consensus that the effects of extreme weather conditions in the form of drought, flooding and extreme temperature will have increasingly devastating impacts on those who depend on climate‐sensitive resources and ecosystems for their livelihoods. The most affected will be the poor in developing countries who have a low adaptive capacity to climate change due to high poverty levels. Despite these projections, there are, to date, insufficient empirical studies linking the relationship between climate change and migration, particularly in the context of southern Africa. Using field‐based data collected from two study locations in Zambia, this paper examines the complex relationship between extreme weather events and population movement. It is envisaged that the findings presented in this paper will contribute to current discussions on the complex relationship between extreme weather conditions and population movement specifically in the context of sub‐Saharan Africa and other developing countries.