北京市大气污染减排潜力及居民健康效益评估

北京市能源消费正面临着污染物减排和保障居民健康的双重约束. 针对未来城市能源消费设计BAU(基准情景)和2个分别基于近期和中长期节能环保要求的受控情景(EC1、EC2),模拟预测了3个情景下主要大气污染物(SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5)在目标年(2020年)的排放水平,以确定大气污染减排潜力. 分别采用综合暴露-反应关系模型(IER)和泊松回归模型,评估北京市居民对PM_2.5暴露的健康风险,估算健康损失的经济价值. 结果表明:相较BAU情景,在EC1情景下, SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5减排率分别达到52.95%、49.77%、32.82%、41.41%,可减少PM_2.5暴露下居民死亡和发病219 783例,其中死亡1 295例、住院3 920例、门诊182 558例、患病32 011例,获得健康效益111.87×108元;在EC2情景下,SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5的减排率分别达到66.61%、63.42%、54.96%、57.44%,可减少PM_2.5暴露下居民死亡和发病519 234例,其中死亡2 930例、住院9 248例、门诊427 070例、患病79 986例,获得健康效益290.10×108元. 相较EC1情景,EC2情景可产生更大的减排潜力和居民健康效益. 从空间分布上来看,北京主城区因能源方案优化获得的健康效益较大,约占总健康经济效益的60%.      

The relationships among tourism development,energy demand,and growth factors in developed and developing countries

The objective of the study is to explore the different factors that affect tourism development in the panel of 34 developed and developing countries, over the period of 2005–2013. Energy consumption, air pollution, health expenditures, and economic growth played a vital role to change tourism development indicators in the region. The results confirmed the long-run association between the energy, environment, growth, and tourism indicators in the panel of selected 34 countries. The results of fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) indicate that health expenditures have a positive relationship with the tourism indicators, while energy consumption exerts a negative association with the tourism indicators in the region. The results of dynamic ordinary least squares regression also confirmed the same results of FMOLS regarding health expenditures and energy consumption, that is, positive and negative impacts on the tourism indicators. However, carbon dioxide emissions exert a positive relationship with the tourism indicators in the region.     

钢铁工业固废应用于水泥生产的降耗与减排

运用物质流分析法定量比较原生水泥与再生水泥生产过程中的物能代谢和环境负荷,并采用生命周期分析进行环境影响评价。结果表明：生产1 t原生水泥需要的直接物质投入是1.637 t;消耗原煤0.086 t/标准煤,消耗电力0.067 t/标准煤。利用钢铁工业固废生产功能单位再生水泥,可减少资源投入0.16 t;减少能源消耗0.036 t;环境排放SO2减排0.000 2 t;粉尘减排0.001 t;烟尘减排0.000 12 t;NOx减排0.000 34 t;CO2减排0.231 t。水泥生产潜在的各类环境影响中以废气排放引起的温室效应最大;其次依次是酸化效应和不可再生资源消耗;光化学烟雾和人体健康损害在水泥生产过程中的影响都相对较小。与原生水泥相比,再生水泥各环境负荷均呈下降趋势,两者总体环境负荷差值为6.93E-15。研究结果充分说明钢铁工业固废资源化可以明显的降低水泥生产的总体环境负荷,是促进水泥行业循环经济发展的有效手段。     

我国水银体温计生产及用汞情况研究

我国水银体温计产量巨大,且水银体温计易碎、易折,其中的汞又极易挥发,因此所造成的环境污染不容忽视.分析了我国水银体温计的生产现状,用汞情况,近几年有关汞的国际行动及部分国家就水银体温计所采取的限制、禁止措施.提出了2条减少汞污染的建议:源头控制法,即从源头控制汞原料的使用,并逐步削减,使水银体温计行业彻底实现无汞化;过程控制法,即加强水银体温计在生产、使用、收集、运输、贮存及处置各个环节的管理.      

Modelling predation by transient leopard seals for an ecosystem-based management of Southern Ocean fisheries

Correctly quantifying the impacts of rare apex marine predators is essential to ecosystem-based approaches to fisheries management, where harvesting must be sustainable for targeted species and their dependent predators. This requires modelling the uncertainty in such processes as predator life history, seasonal abundance and movement, size-based predation, energetic requirements, and prey vulnerability. We combined these uncertainties to evaluate the predatory impact of transient leopard seals on a community of mesopredators (seals and penguins) and their prey at South Georgia, and assess the implications for an ecosystem-based management. The mesopredators are highly dependent on Antarctic krill and icefish, which are targeted by regional fisheries. We used a state-space formulation to combine (1) a mark-recapture open-population model and individual identification data to assess seasonally variable leopard seal arrival and departure dates, numbers, and residency times; (2) a size-based bioenergetic model; and (3) a size-based prey choice model from a diet analysis. Our models indicated that prey choice and consumption reflected seasonal changes in leopard seal population size and structure, size-selective predation and prey vulnerability. A population of 104 (90–125) leopard seals, of which 64% were juveniles, consumed less than 2% of the Antarctic fur seal pup production of the area (50% of total ingested energy, IE), but ca. 12–16% of the local gentoo penguin population (20% IE). Antarctic krill (28% IE) were the only observed food of leopard seal pups and supplemented the diet of older individuals. Direct impacts on krill and fish were negligible, but the “escapement” due to leopard seal predation on fur seal pups and penguins could be significant for the mackerel icefish fishery at South Georgia. These results suggest that: (1) rare apex predators like leopard seals may control, and may depend on, populations of mesopredators dependent on prey species targeted by fisheries; and (2) predatory impacts and community control may vary throughout the predator's geographic range, and differ across ecosystems and management areas, depending on the seasonal abundance of the prey and the predator's dispersal movements. This understanding is important to integrate the predator needs as natural mortality of its prey in models to set prey catch limits for fisheries. Reliable estimates of the variability of these needs are essential for a precautionary interpretation in the context of an ecosystem-based management.     

上海市居民出行方式与城市交通CO2排放及减排对策

以上海市居民出行方式为研究对象,利用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)温室气体排放计算指南中关于交通能源消费碳排放量的计算方法,探讨2002—2006年上海市居民出行选择的不同交通方式对CO₂排放的影响和规律,并提供应对策略.结果表明,2002年以来上海市因居民出行导致的交通CO₂排放总量呈显著增长趋势.私家车的CO₂排放量增加速度最快,截至2006年私家车CO₂排放量约相当于出租车、轨道交通和公交车3种公共交通方式之和.公共交通中,出租车的CO₂年排放量和人均CO₂排放量都最大,轨道交通的CO₂年排放量和人均CO₂排放量最小.公交车和出租车的CO₂排放量所占比例减少,轨道交通的CO₂排放量所占比例增加,这种排放结构的变化有利于减少CO₂排放总量.CO₂减排的具体措施包括限制私家车数量,设计合理的道路交通方案,使汽车尽可能接近其经济车速,改变汽车燃料种类等,其中限制私家车数量最为关键.      

双酚A和壬基酚对河蚬呼吸代谢和抗氧化酶活性的影响

为了研究双酚A（Bisphenol A,BPA）和壬基酚（Nonylphenol,NP）对河蚬（Corbicula fluminea）呼吸代谢能力和抗氧化酶活性的影响,探讨BPA和NP对河蚬的毒性作用。以河蚬为受试生物,采用半静态染毒法,研究了BPA和NP对河蚬的单一毒性等级、联合毒性作用类型和对河蚬耗氧率、排氨率以及抗氧化酶系统中SOD、CAT活性的影响。结果显示：① BPA、NP对河蚬的半致死质量浓度（96 h-LC50）分别为6.34和1.09 mg＆#183;L-1,毒性顺序为NP＞BPA,二者均为高毒物质;② BPA-NP对河蚬毒性作用类型为协同作用;③亚急性毒性指标耗氧率、排氨率以及超氧化物歧化酶（SOD）、过氧化氢酶（CAT）对BPA、NP及二者混合物均比较敏感,在本试验的质量浓度范围内（BPA：0.63、0.79、1.59、3.17 mg＆#183;L-1;NP：0.109、0.136、0.271、0.542 mg＆#183;L-1;BPA＋NP：（0.0782＋0.029）、（0.0978＋0.0363）、（0.196＋0.0725）、（0.391＋0.145） mg＆#183;L-1）,河蚬耗氧率、排氨率以及两种酶活性变化均呈现先下降后上升再下降的趋势,其中在BPA、NP和二者混合物的质量浓度较低时,河蚬的耗氧率和排氨率、SOD和CAT活性只有微小降低,随着质量浓度的升高,河蚬耗氧率和排氨率、两个酶活性相对均有所升高,而在质量浓度极高时其耗氧率和排氨率以及两个酶活性才又受到显著性或极显著性的抑制。实验结果显示河蚬耗氧率、排氨率和SOD、CAT活性对水体中酚类内分泌干扰物反应敏感,具有较好的一致性和规律性,耗氧率、排氨率和SOD、CAT活性与其他敏感性指标一起可以作为酚类内分泌干扰物污染的一项早期监测指标。     

Conspicuous conservation: The Prius halo and willingness to pay for environmental bona fides

This paper develops a theory of conspicuous conservation, a phenomenon related to conspicuous consumption in which individuals seek status through displays of austerity amid growing concern about environmental protection. We identify a statistically and economically significant conspicuous conservation effect in vehicle purchase decisions and estimate a mean willingness to pay for the green signal provided by the distinctively designed Toyota Prius in the range of $430–4200 depending upon the owner's location. Results are related to the growing literature on green markets and suggest that policy should target less conspicuous conservation investments that will be under-provided relative to those that confer a status benefit.     

中国能源消费碳排放变化的驱动因素研究

将DEA中基于能源投入的Shephard距离函数引入到LMDI分解模型中,建立了1995~2010年中国6大产业能源消费碳排放7因素分解模型.研究结果显示, 产业结构效应、经济产出效应、人口规模效应、能源绩效效应对碳排放的增加具有一定的拉动作用,其中经济产出效应的累积贡献率最大为135%,产业结构效应、人口规模效应、能源绩效效应对碳排放累积贡献率分别为10.74%、9.39%、0.65%;潜在能源强度效应对碳排放下降的累积贡献率最大为54.6%,说明产业能源强度的调整空间较大,且抑制效应逐年增强;能源结构效应、能源技术进步效应对我国碳减排的累积贡献率分别为0.2%和1.04%,贡献微弱,亟待提高;从产业层面研究发现,农林牧渔业、建筑业、批发零售和住宿餐饮业和其他行业的低碳发展较好,工业、交通运输仓储和邮政业低碳发展不佳,工业始终是我国碳排放的主要来源.     

Socioeconomic and indigeneity determinants of the consumption of non-timber forest products in Vietnam’s Bu Gia Map National Park

ABSTRACT

Conservation of protected areas requires understanding of the consumption of forest products by rural people who live near protected forests. Socioeconomic factors such as a better education, income, land holding size, have been used to understand the patterns of consumption of non-timber forest products (NTFPs). Ethnicity, and especially whether or not people are indigenous to the forested areas, may also change consumption patterns. In this study we analysed the socioeconomic factors, indigeneity and geographical locations of people living in the buffer zones of Vietnam’s Bu Gia Map National Park to better understand the key determinants of the consumption of NTFPs. We conducted 121 interviews with local households and found that indigeneity, education, family size, and the area of land used were statistically significant in explaining the amount of NTFPs consumed, while indigeneity and area of land used by local people had positive relationships with the diversity (measured in number of categories) of NTFPs consumed by local people. Interestingly, there were statistically significant effects of interactions between the area of land used and indigeneity on the consumption of NTFPs. The amount of these products is important for indigenous people who belong to the groups using small and medium areas of land. The medium land use group consumed significantly fewer categories of NTFPs than the small and large land use groups. This data may help local managers to develop interventions that support biodiversity conservation, promote sustainability of these important resources and improve the social welfare of marginal groups.