Energy and economic impacts of an international multi-regional carbon market

The establishment of a global multi-regional carbon market is considered to be a cost effective approach to facilitate global emission abatement and has been widely concerned.The ongoing planned linkage between the European Union’s carbon market and a new emission trading system in Australia in 2015 would be an important attempt to the practice of building up an international carbon market across different regions.To understand the abatement effect of such a global carbon market and to study its energy and economic impact on different market participants,this article adopts a global dynamic computable general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the interactions between energy and economic systems.Our model includes 20 economic sectors and 19 regions,and describes in detail 17 energy technologies.Bundled with fossil fuel consumptions,the emission permits are considered to be essential inputs in each of the production and consumption activities in the economic system to simulate global carbon market policies.Carbon emission permits are endogenously set in the model,and can be traded between sectors and regions.Considering the current development of the global carbon market,this study takes 2020 as the study period.Four scenarios(reference scenario,independent carbon market scenario,Europe Union（EUh-Australia scenario,and China-EU-Australia scenario） are designed to evaluate the impact of the global carbon market involving China,the EU,and Australia.We find that the carbon price in the three countries varies a lot,from $32/tCO₂ in Australia,to $17.5/tCO₂ in the EU,and to $10/tCO₂ in China.Though the relative emission reduction（3%） in China is lower than that in the EU（9%） and Australia（18%）,the absolute emission reduction in China is far greater than that in the EU and Australia.When China is included in the carbon market,which already includes the EU and Australia,the prevailing global carbon price falls from $22 per ton carbon dioxide（CO₂） to $12/tCO₂,due to the relatively lower abatement cost in China.Seventy-one percent of the EU’s and eighty-one percent of Australia’s domestic reduction burden would be transferred to China,increasing 0.03%of the EU’s and 0.06%of Australia’s welfare.The emission constraint improves the energy efficiency of China’s industry sector by 1.4%,reduces coal consumption by3.3%,and increases clean energy by 3.5%.     

An in-depth view of climate change:addressing climate change while making a transition on the development mode

While fossil fuels greatly contribute to human society,they pose great challenges to natural resources,the environment,and climate change.Developed countries,like the United States,formulated strategic measures to ensure their sustainable development and leading positions in the world.These measures include new green policies,development of shale gas,revitalization of nuclear power,energy independence,reindustrialization,and new low-carbon development based on a combination of Internet technology and renewable energy.Developing countries are also trying to introduce balanced strategies of poverty alleviation and sustainable development.Globally,industrial civilization is being transformed to ecological civilization and green,low-carbon development is a global trend.Addressing climate change provides new strategic factors to further this development.China should take substantial actions to realize sustainable development in a new road:China is in the critical stage of changing its development mode,so it is vital to choose an appropriate development path.This extensive development comes at the high price of consuming too much resources and scarring the environment.Mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing climate change can help the transition of development.Based on the analysis of the development data of developed countries,the author introduces the concept of"two-type developed countries"with an understanding that not all developed countries must take the same development mode.He also holds the view that China should achieve modernization in a more energy-saving and more carbon-efficient manner compared with that of two-type developed countries.An analysis of"two competitions"that China is facing shows that changing the developing mode is urgent and China should grasp this opportunity in the next five to ten years,which is a key period for this transition.This paper discusses the low-carbon development goals and the three-step process.Low-carbon development does not necessarily restrict economic development.It,however,can expedite the transition of the development mode and this is a low-carbon and green development path.Transition of the development mode includes implementation of China’s green and low-carbon energy strategies,low-carbon society construction,development of agriculture and forestry,garbage sorting and utilization,innovation of urbanization,etc.Improvement of national infrastructure construction includes water safety,environment and climate monitoring system,intelligent energy web,basic database,etc.Addressing climate change can significantly improve the nation’s basic research level.In summary,it mitigates backward production capability,extensive development,and environmental damage while promoting technological advancement,scientific development,and ecological civilization.     

我国取消电价补贴的经济影响——基于电价管制及完全竞争市场的分析

通过构建电力部门细分的CGE模型,分别在电价管制和完全竞争市场背景下,评估了取消电价交叉补贴和可再生能源电价补贴,以及引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业的经济影响.研究发现:取消电价交叉补贴对GDP有负面影响,而取消可再生能源电价补贴后GDP有所提升;相比完全竞争市场,电价管制市场背景下取消电价交叉补贴对GDP的负面冲击强度增加了0.003%,而取消可再生能源电价补贴对GDP的促进作用幅度则相对减小0.056%;同时取消两种补贴时,在电价管制市场背景下GDP相比基准情景下降了0.022%,而在完全竞争市场背景下GDP则增加了0.038%.电价管制市场背景下取消电价补贴对电力结构及能源结构影响较小;而在完全竞争市场背景下取消电价补贴将刺激传统电力消费并导致碳排放有所增加.引入碳税政策并将碳税收入转移支付给风电及光伏行业可以有效控制碳排放并促进电力结构和能源结构改善,但会对行业总产出和GDP产生更大的负面冲击.我国未来应适度放开电价管制,并采取诸如适时征收碳税并将其收入转移支付给风电和光伏行业的支持性政策,推动我国能源结构优化和节能减排目标的实现.     

“Alternative futures”: a methodology for integrated sustainability considerations,the case of Nuremberg West,Germany

In the context of the desire to steer urban transformation towards sustainability transition, the development of proposals for alternative futures assists policy-makers and practitioners in focusing on impact by organising the various drivers, particularly spatial ones that cause an interactive urban system to transit. This paper presents the methodology that has been developed by the Chair for Urban Development, Munich University of Technology (TUM) as it was working within an inter-disciplinary research team on a project commissioned by the municipality of Nuremberg. The objective of this project was to develop ideas for regenerating the formerly industrial area of Nuremberg West (NW) under the guiding theme of sustainable urban development. This methodology focuses on the development of proposals of positive and possible transformations of NW in the year 2050 based on the analysis of economy, housing and space at various scales and a systematic assessment of trends. These alternative futures became framing and guiding narratives to internalise and anchor the debate in-between the various disciplines involved in this project.     

我国噪声与振动控制行业2013年发展综述

综述了2012年我国噪声与振动控制行业的发展环境以及行业的生产经营情况;阐述了行业总体技术进展、新技术的开发应用概况,以及行业市场特点及重要动态;分析了行业主要骨干企业的发展情况及企业的国内外竞争力状况;针对行业发展中存在的主要问题, 提出了解决对策和建议,并对行业的发展进行了展望.     

市场转型对中国环境治理结构的影响——国家污染物减排指标的分配机制研究

国家统计局数据显示,2006年我国节能减排任务均远未实现国家"十一五"规划开局之年的目标,特别是主要污染物排放总量不降反升.本文在分析了中国环境治理体系和国家"十一五"规划主要污染物减排指标分配机制的基础上,研究了市场转型对中国环境治理结构的影响.中国的市场转型可以抽象为以"分权让利"、"市场化"和"工业化"为主要特征的结构演进过程.文中提出,中国市场转型过程对环境治理结构造成了重大影响,而环境治理的各项措施反过来也应与市场转型相适应.当前中国主要污染物减排指标没有实现达标的重要原因是国家污染物减排指标的分配机制无法适应我国市场转型的要求.为此,本文提出一系列国家主要污染物减排指标分配机制的政策建议.     

资源型城市接续主导产业的选择研究--以白银市为例

本文论述了资源型城市接续主导产业选择的重要性和选择原则，并以白银市为例，利用综合评价值法广告牌了白银市的主导产业和优势产业，然后用特尔斐法对白银市的接续主导产业进行了选择，选择结果比较符合白银市的实际情况。     

上海市郊区农业土地流转类型与土地利用变化响应差异性研究

在对农业用地流转机制进行深入分析的基础上，将农业土地流转市场划分为三种类型：政府引导型、集体推动型和农户主导型。进而结合农户调查数据，通过建立农业土地非耕地化流转的驱动力模型。分析不同类型的农业土地流转市场对于耕地利用变化的影响。模型运行结果表明：政府引导的农业土地流转导致耕地面积大幅减少，集体推动的流转有利于提高耕地利用效率。农户主导的农业土地流转促使了粮食作物种植面积的减少。最后以模型运行结果为依据，从保护农民土地权益、维持耕地总量平衡的角度提出相关建议。     

Theoretical study on the reaction mechanism of ozone addition to the double bonds of keto-limonene

The reaction mechanism of ozone (O₃) addition to the double bonds of gas phase keto-limonene was investigated using ab initio methods. Two different possibilities for O₃ addition to the double bond were considered and two corresponding van derWaals complexes (Complex 1 and Complex 2) were found for 1-endo and 2-endo. The rate constants were calculated using the transition state theory at the CCSD(T)/6-31G(d) + CF//B3LYP/6-31G(d,p) level. The high-pressure limit of the total rate constant at 298 K was 3.51 × 10^-16 cm³/(molecule sec), which was in a good agreement with the experimental data.     

羟胺强化过渡金属活化过硫酸盐降解磺胺甲恶唑

以典型磺胺类抗生素—磺胺甲恶唑(SMZ)为降解对象,选取赤铁矿(α-Fe_2O_3)、氧化钴(Co_2O_3)和氧化铜(CuO)3种过渡金属氧化物(M_xO_y),研究了羟胺(HA)对3种过渡金属氧化物活化过硫酸盐(PDS)降解SMZ的强化效果及机理.结果表明,HA对M_xO_y/PDS体系降解SMZ具有明显的促进作用,初始HA、PDS、M_xO_y和SMZ浓度均对SMZ的降解具有重要影响.电子顺磁共振(EPR)实验结果证实,α-Fe_2O_3/HA/PDS和Co_2O_3/HA/PDS体系中的主要活性自由基是·OH,而CuO/HA/PDS体系中SMZ的降解并不依赖于自由基的生成,表面活化态PDS是降解SMZ的主要活性物种.此外,采用高效液相色谱-离子阱质谱联用仪(HPLC-ESI-MS)检测了SMZ在Co_2O_3/HA/PDS体系中的降解产物.结果表明,SMZ主要通过3条路径进行降解矿化,分别为氨基官能团的硝基化、不饱和碳碳双键的羟基加成及磺胺键的断裂.