Analysis of the effects of zinc pollution on the macro-invertebrate populations of the Afon Crafnant,North Wales

The study of the input draining from mine-waste into the Afon Crafnant, N. Wales, revealed that the most significant pollutant was zinc. The concentrations of zinc were monitored during 1978 and 1979, and spot samples were concentrated and analysed for lead, copper, cadmium, iron, cobalt, manganese and nickel. Analysis was by flame atomic absorption specto-scopy. The total zinc concentration of the input was about 4 mg Zn/l which was diluted by the Afon Crafnant to give mean annual concentrations of 213 g Zn/l and 146 g Zn/l for 1978 and 1979 respectively at a site 60 metres downstream of the input. The numbers of individuals and number of taxa in the macro-invertebrate community were reduced at these concentrations. The taxa affected werePhagocata vitta,Erpobdella octoculata, Oligochaeta,Ithytrichia lamellaris, Simuliidae,Ancylus fluviatilis andRithrogena semicolorata. Several commonly used diversity indices failed to show differences between the macro- invertebrate communities at the affected and control sites whereas a modified version of Chandler's Biotic Score (detailed in this paper) revealed both the acute effects at higher concentrations and the chronic effects at lower concentrations.     

基于概率神经网络的污泥堆肥腐熟度的综合判别

由于污泥堆肥过程中各组分间相互影响和制约,污泥腐熟程度的判别系统呈现模糊性,使得传统评价方法对该判别系统很难正确认识。文章根据污泥堆肥的具体情况,提出了以含水率、挥发固体、粪大肠菌值、发芽指数作为腐熟程度的判别指标体系,并基于概率神经网络建立污泥堆肥腐熟程度的综合判别模型,然后用该模型判别上海市某污水厂污泥快速好氧堆肥工艺污泥堆肥样品的腐熟程度。结果表明:①将污泥堆肥的含水率、有机质、粪大肠菌值和种子发芽指数作为判别指标,可以判别污泥堆肥腐熟程度;②概率神经网络可以建立判别指标与稳定化程度等级之间复杂的非线性关系,为腐熟度的判别提供一种通用的模式,且判别结果比较合理。     

Assessment of the Sustainability of Bushmeat Hunting Based on Dynamic Bioeconomic Models

Abstract:  Open-access hunting is a dynamic system in which individual hunters respond to changes in system variables such as costs of hunting and prices obtained for their catch. Sustainability indices used by conservationists ignore these human processes and focus only on the biological sustainability of current offtake levels. This focus implicitly assumes that offtake is constant, says little about the actual sustainability of the system, and fails to provide any basis for predicting the impact of most feasible management interventions. A bioeconomic approach overcomes these limitations by explicitly integrating both the biological and human components of the system. We present a graphical representation of a simple bioeconomic model of bushmeat hunting and use it to demonstrate the importance of considering system dynamics when assessing sustainability. Our results show that commonly used static sustainability indices are often misleading. The best method to assess hunting sustainability is situation dependent, but characterizing supply and demand curves, even crudely, has greater potential than current approaches to provide robust predictions in the medium term.     

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Impacts of climate change on the severity and intensity of future droughts can be evaluated based on precipitation and temperature projections, multiple hydrological models, simulated hydrometeorological variables, and various drought indices. The objective of this study was to assess climate change impacts on future drought conditions and water resources in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) watershed. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model were used to simulate a Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI), a Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI), a Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI), along with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for both historical and future periods (f1: 2020‐2049, f2: 2050‐2079). The results of the SSI suggested that there was a general increase in agricultural droughts in the entire CB watershed because of increases in surface and groundwater flow and evapotranspiration. However, MPDSI and MSDI showed an overall decrease in projected drought occurrences due to the increases in precipitation in the future. The results of this study suggest that it is crucial to use multiple modeling approaches with specific drought indices that combine the effects of both precipitation and temperature changes.     

黄土丘陵小流域土地利用的时空分布及其与地形因子的关系

采用航片解读、实地调查、土地规划和基于GIS的统计分析相结合的方法,从土地利用面积和地形分布格局的变化分析入手,研究了黄土丘陵小流域土地利用的时空分布格局及其影响因子。研究结果表明,黄土丘陵区大南沟小流域的土地利用变化可以分成两个阶段,第一阶段从1975、1998年到25°退耕,林地/灌木地面积增加,荒草地、休闲地和耕地的面积减少,果园/经济林地的面积变化不明显;第二阶段即3种土地利用规划方案,包括25°、20°和15°退耕方案,林地/灌木地和荒草地的面积保持不变,耕地和休闲地逐渐被果园/经济林地所替代。汇总与相关分析表明,这5种土地利用类型的地形分布格局也发生相应的变化。研究指出,近20年来,大南沟小流域土地利用格局日趋优化,3种土地利用规划方案体现了土地持续利用的生态、经济和社会效益,具有很强的操作性。     

Bryoindication of the general state of atmosphere in an urban ecosystem: The example of the city of Bryansk

Bryoindication mapping was performed on the basis of synthetic poleotolerance indices for 147 test plots in the city of Bryansk (the southwestern nonchernozem zone of Russia). Individual poleotolerance coefficients of bryophytes were determined. Changes in the state of the atmosphere in the city ecosystem over 12 years were analyzed.     

A strategic quantitative approach for sustainable energy production from biomass

European legislation has created a growing interest in the field of renewable energy production in several countries, including Italy. The applications of biomass and/or biofuel for energy generation have been assumed to provide a high level of sustainability due to the perception that renewable resources are inherently sustainable. Thus, renewable fuels applied to heating and/or electricity generation are potentially carbon dioxide neutral. However, before accepting this assumption, it is essential to analyse the actual level of sustainability in the whole supply chain (SC). This requirement has been clearly identified by the recently updated European Directives on renewable biofuels for transportation. However, there is little evidence that this concern has been directed at energy production from biomass. Thus, approaches derived from Green SC Management (GSCM) methods could provide an effective tool for evaluating, from a strategic perspective, the sustainability level of a specific biomass SC. This paper examines how biomass SC activities can define the overall environmental sustainability level. The approach was based on environmental indicators and the resultant output could support more effective GSCM strategies (e.g. defining logistics carriers, evaluating new biomass suppliers, etc.) for managing biomass SCs. Moreover, the approach could be applied by competent authorities for a quick evaluation of the sustainability level of biomass energy production installations. The approach has been tested in a real case study based on an installation, located in Southern Italy, which uses liquid biomass for energy production.     

1961～2010年金沙江流域降水时空演变特征

基于金沙江流域1961~2010年逐日降水资料,对流域长时间尺度降水要素和多个典型降水日数进行分析,研究金沙江流域降水的时空演变特征。结果表明:1961~2010年,金沙江流域年降水量呈一定的增加趋势,但未通过显著性检验,汛期雨量变化趋势不明显,逐月降水除9月和12月外其他月份均呈微弱增加趋势。小雨等级和中雨等级的降水日数空间变化趋势相似,呈中上游地区微弱增加、下游地区微弱减少趋势,大雨及以上等级的降水日数则以微弱增加为主,仅在源区、德格一带呈不明显减少趋势。年无雨日数和年连续无雨日数呈比较明显的中上游地区减少、下游增加趋势,特别是年无雨日数在昭觉、昭通、会泽等区域增加趋势显著,年连续有雨日数则呈全流域减少,在下游小部分地区显著减少。研究还表明金沙江流域下游地区无雨日数及连续无雨日数特别在2000s偏多,而年连续有雨日数则在2000s明显偏少,表明近年来流域下游地区发生干旱事件的可能性增加。     

A revised calculation of the econometric factors α- and β for the Extended Exergy Accounting method

Extended Exergy Accounting (“EEA”) is a method to compute the space- and time integral of the primary exergy required to produce a good or a service: the extended exergy of a commodity measures its “embodied exergy”, including externalities (Labour, Capital and Environmental Costa). A crucial point of the method is the calculation of two econometric coefficients, commonly referred to as “α” and “β”,used to calculate the extended exergy equivalents of Labour and Capital respectively. In previous applications of the EEA method, these coefficients have been assigned approximate values estimated on the basis of global system considerations. In this paper, a novel procedure is described that leads to the calculation of “exact” values of both econometric coefficients, based on detailed exergy- and monetary balances of the Society to which the EEA is applied. It is shown that both α and β depend in a non-trivial way from the consumption patterns, the technological level and the life- and socio-economic standards of each Country. It is also shown that the values are substantially different for developed (OECD) and underdeveloped Countries, and representative samples of values are calculated and critically analysed. On the basis of these new model coefficients, the specific exergy equivalents of Labour (ee_L) and of Capital (ee_K) are calculated, and shown to differ from the values used in previous EEA calculations.