高精度区域气候模式对淮河流域降水的模拟评估

利用CCLM（COSMO model in Climate Mode）高精度区域气候模式输出的淮河流域逐日降水数据,计算了年降水量、降水强度、大雨日数和强降水量4个降水指数,首先通过与1961～2010年流域内气象站点的降水观测数据进行对比,检验CCLM模式对淮河流域降水的模拟能力。结果表明,CCLM模式能够很好的模拟淮河流域降水的年际变化和空间分布特征,在4个降水指数中,对年降水量的模拟效果最佳。CCLM模式在SRES-A1B（中排放）情景下的降水预估数据显示,2011～2050年淮河流域降水整体将呈增加趋势,增幅在70 mm之内,降水量年际变率较大,波动范围达-40%～60%,很有可能造成未来旱涝灾害的频繁发生。空间分布上,流域南部和中部在未来40年内降水呈增加趋势,增幅不超过67%,其他区域则呈减少趋势,减幅不超过106%     

Distribution,Sources, and Possible Adverse Biological Effects of Trace Metals in Surface Sediments of a Tropical Estuary

Metal (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Ni, Co, and Fe) contamination in sediments from a tropical estuary (Ébrié Lagoon, Ivory Coast) was assessed using pollution indices, multivariate analyses and sediment quality guidelines (SQGs). The results demonstrate that increased input of the studied metals occurred over the past 6 years compared to that from 20 years ago, due to rapid population growth, along with the increase of industrial and agricultural activities in the vicinity of the estuary. Ébrié Lagoon was also found to be one of the most contaminated tropical coastal estuaries. Very high average total organic carbon (TOC) content was found (1.9–3.70%) with significant spatial variation as a result of the influence of anthropogenic activities. This study also found that TOC plays an important role in the distribution of Cu, Zn, Co, and Cd in the Ébrié Lagoon sediments. Moderate to high sediment contamination was observed for Cd and Cu, moderate contamination was observed for Zn and Pb, while low contamination was observed for Ni, Co, and Fe. Cluster analysis (CA) and principal component analysis (PCA) investigation revealed that Cu, Zn, Cd, and Co result mainly from anthropogenic sources while Pb, Ni, and Fe may be of natural origin. The pollution-loading index (PLI) indicated that all of the sites close to wastewater discharges were highly polluted. The sediments are likely to be an occasional threat to aquatic organisms due to Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, and Ni contents, based on the SQGs approach.     

进水碳负荷浓度对垂直潜流式人工湿地中植物根系微生物动态的影响

植物的不同生长发育阶段是影响根系微生物功能多样性的原因之一。植物的生长改变了微生物的群落结构。在低有机负荷或高有机负荷下,植物幼苗与成苗根系的微生物整体活性均差异明显,一般成苗期具有较高AWCD值。有植物湿地中微生物Simpson和Mcintosh多样性指数在植物成苗期均明显高于幼苗期(P0.05),但Shannon指数变化不明显(P0.05)。无植物湿地中微生物Simpson和Mcintosh指数受季节影响差异显著(P0.05)。主成分和聚类分析结果表明,不同生长发育阶段其微生物种类存在差异,而且不同进水条件下有植物湿地和无植物湿地各自有相似的微生物群体结构。     

Ozone distribution and phytotoxic potential in mixed conifer forests of the San Bernardino Mountains, southern California

In the San Bernardino Mountains of southern California, ozone (O(3)) concentrations have been elevated since the 1950s with peaks reaching 600ppb and summer seasonal averages >100ppb in the 1970s. During that period increased mortality of ponderosa and Jeffrey pines occurred. Between the late 1970s and late1990s, O(3) concentrations decreased with peaks approximately 180ppb and approximately 60ppb seasonal averages. However, since the late 1990s concentrations have not changed. Monitoring during summers of 2002-2006 showed that O(3) concentrations (2-week averages) for individual years were much higher in western sites (58-69ppb) than eastern sites (44-50ppb). Potential O(3) phytotoxicity measured as various exposure indices was very high, reaching SUM00 - 173.5ppmh, SUM60 - 112.7ppmh, W126 - 98.3ppmh, and AOT40 - 75ppmh, representing the highest values reported for mountain areas in North America and Europe.     

An overview of systems analysis methods in delineating environmental quality indices

Environmental quality indices (EQIs) have been developed for a variety of purposes ranging from enforcement of environmental standards, to analysis of trends of environmental degradation or improvement, to scientific research. EQIs currently in use are not organized within an integrated framework and thus it has been difficult to analyze adequately complex, multidisciplinary, large-scale, global phenomena. In this paper we compare four different approaches to developing EQIs within a systems perspective. Our analysis suggests that: (1) non-linear regression models that represent an ecosystem's response to different impacts within a stress-response framework (method of response functions) are useful tools for analysis of environmental data; (2) non-equilibrium thermodynamics models based on the concept of exergy, which represents the free energy a system possesses in relation to its environment, provide a common basis for representing many aspects of ecosystem development and response to environmental impacts as a single measure; (3) diagram models based on the concept of emergy, which represents both environmental values and economic values with a single measure, provide a common basis for integrating economic development and environmental protection values into one index; and (4) complex systems simulation models based on general systems theory, which use the methodologies of systems analysis and simulation to identify, quantify, and interrelate EQIs within a dynamic systems context, provide explicit linkages between causes and effects (vertical integration) and identify cross-linkages among different environmental issues (horizontal integration).     

快速城市化背景下的城市土地储备策略研究——以深圳市龙岗区为例

随着我国城市化进程的快速推进,土地储备作为土地资源集约利用和优化配置的重要手段,已在许多城市开展。从主要城市目前土地储备计划制定过程来看,普遍存在资金导向和项目需求问题,使其缺乏与城市发展规划间的协调,易导致区域整体利益下降。因此,科学合理地制定土地储备与供应计划,改资金导向型为功能导向型,改项目需求型为规划引导型,通过土地储备制度实现城市土地资源的资产化、土地资产的资本化,确保国有土地资产保值增值是土地储备计划研究的基本目的。论文以深圳市龙岗区为例,从城市建设用地需求预测入手,利用GIS技术,进行了土地储备潜力分析与评价,并据此确定土地储备数量与时序,就如何合理制定土地储备计划进行了初步研究。     

三峡水库试验性蓄水前后大宁河富营养化状态比较

基于大宁河试验性蓄水阶段(2005-09～2007-09)和正常运行阶段(2008-09～2010-09)的监测数据,对大宁河试验性蓄水前后富营养化状态进行比较,在此基础上运用Carlson的"二维坐标理论"和数理统计分析方法,探究大宁河富营养状态限制因素.结果表明,和试验性蓄水阶段相比,正常运行阶段整个研究区域TSITP呈显著上升趋势,从大宁河回水末端至长江干流,增加幅度沿程依次为23.29%、19.57%、15.58%和14.12%;TSISD和TSITN维持稳定;TSICHL总体维持稳定,仅回水末端(S1)呈上升趋势,上升幅度为17.34%.从长江干流至大宁河回水末端,TSITN、TSITP和TSISD这3个营养状态指数均呈现沿程降低的趋势;TSICHL呈现回水区(S2)和出水口(S3)较高,长江干流(S4)和回水末端(S1)较低.试验性蓄水前后各水文期特征基本呈现一致.TSITN和TSITP水文期特征表现为:汛限期、泄水期>高水位运行期>蓄水期;TSICHL水文期特征表现为:汛限期>蓄水期、泄水期>高水位运行期;TSISD水文期特征表现为:汛限期、泄水期>蓄水期>高水位运行期.正常运行期和试验性蓄水期相比,TSITN、TSITP和TSICHL在各个水文期之间的差异变小.长江干流和大宁河总氮和总磷已经超过了富营养化状态的临界值,因此营养盐并不是水体富营养化状态的限制因素;非藻类浊度控制水下光衰减而成为限制藻类生产力的关键因素.非藻类浊度和水下光照分布受到水文学特征季节动态的强烈干扰.     

哈思山油松树轮宽度对气候要素及几种水分指数的响应分析

A tree-ring width chronology developed from Pinus tabulaeformis tree-rings of Hasi Mountain was employed to analyze responses of tree-ring to different climatic metrics. Correlation analyses between tree-ring chronology and precipitation and temperature suggest that tree growth is both limited by precipitation and temperature, and moisture is the principal limiting factor of tree-ring width. To find a suitable moisture index to be reconstructed, three moisture indices considering precipitation and evaporation even water balance are chosen to be analyzed. The results suggest that the PDSI is an appropriate index as predictor of tree-ring width and can be used to reconstruct in this area.     

DAT-IAT工艺处理城市污水的生态风险评估

采用常规水质指标检测和种子发芽及根伸长抑制的陆生生态毒理方法,评价了DAT-IAT工艺处理过程中各工艺阶段污水的生态风险.常规水质指标检测结果显示,COD和SS可以达标排放,而氮的形态由进水时的NH⁺₄-N转变为DAT、出水中的NO^-₃-N,只是形态发生了变化,并没有从污水中去除,虽然达到了设计的NH⁺₄-N去除要求,可以达标排放,但是并未降低受纳水体发生富营养化的生态风险.生态毒理指标检测结果显示,进水、DAT、出水各阶段污水中COD对小麦种子发芽的半数抑制浓度逐渐降低,分别为249.3、 165.3和161.2 mg·L^-1;对小麦根伸长的半数抑制浓度也逐渐降低,分别为257.6、 154.0和142.1 mg·L^-1,表明DAT-IAT工艺处理过程中污水的生态毒性变化趋势为逐渐增大,处理后的出水存在一定的生态风险,有进一步进行生态风险调控的必要性.在相同水质条件下,小麦根伸长抑制率比小麦种子发芽抑制率更显著,可以把小麦根伸长作为评价污水处理生态风险的敏感指标之一.     

根据分子连接性指数估算极性有机化合物的吸附系数

研究了分子连接性指数与极性有机化合物吸附系数（以有机碳计）的关系．通过对建模组中２１１种极性化合物分子连接性指数与ｌｏｇＫＯＣ进行回归分析，发现仅根据分子连接性指数不能准确地计算其ＫＯＣ值．当在模型中引入极性校正因子后，计算的准确度明显提高．据此建立了估算极性有机化合物ＫＯＣ的定量模型．对所研究的２３１种极性化合物，平均估算误差为０３１个对数单位，４５％的估算误差在０２个对数单位之内．