职工群体性突发事件发生原因演化分析及对策研究

随着经济增速放缓及劳动力成本上升,职工要求增加工资与企业渴望廉价劳动力的矛盾愈发明显。劳资冲突、职工群体性突发事件不断发生,对维护社会稳定带来严峻考验。通过统计分析2011-2015年间我国职工群体性突发事件,得出拖欠工资、管理不善、企业改制或搬迁、诉求提高工资待遇及不满工作条件、环境五个因素为导致职工群体性突发事件发生的主要原因。引入马尔科夫理论,计算职工群体性突发事件诱发因素的马尔科夫演化过程,得到趋势因子。并以2015年下半年为初始数据,对2016-2018年上半年职工群体性突发事件的原因变化趋势进行预测。针对预测结果,对欠薪事件、政企管理制度不完善等因素提出对策措施,为科学预防职工群体性突发事件提供技术支持。     

土地利用回归模型在大气污染时空分异研究中的应用

随着城市化、工业化、机动化进程的加快,大气污染已成为我国最严重的环境问题之一,对公众健康和生态环境造成了诸多负面影响.土地利用回归,即Land-use Regression(LUR)模型是目前模拟城市尺度大气污染时空分异的常用方法之一,其在欧洲和北美得到广泛的应用,而在国内,相关研究却不多.本文在整理国内外文献的基础上,从构建LUR模型的主要步骤入手,包括监测数据获取、模型自变量生成、模型构建、模型检验和回归映射等方面,对LUR模型在大气污染时空分异研究中的进展进行归纳总结,进而展望了未来的研究重点与方向,即突出时空分异、扩展模型变量类别和改进模型构建方法.本文旨在普及LUR模型在我国的应用,为人口暴露、流行病学研究和健康风险评价等提供方法论基础.     

佛山臭氧浓度预报方程的建立与应用

臭氧作为大气中的二次污染物,其形成和变化复杂,臭氧预报更是当下空气污染治理的难题之一.通过分析2014~2017年佛山地区近地面O₃浓度与高低层气象要素的关系,建立了佛山O₃浓度预报方程,并进行了检验和应用.结果表明,佛山近地面O₃的变化与高低层气象要素关系密切,气温和日照时数等气象要素与O₃浓度呈显著正相关,相对湿度、总（低）云量和风速等与其呈负相关;高浓度O₃污染发生的气象条件为小风速、晴间少云、低相对湿度、较长的日照时间和较高的温度,高浓度O₃潜势指数（HOPI）和风向指数（WDI）的定义可以较好地衡量O₃污染气象条件的好坏;综合考虑HOPI和不同高度WDI等13种气象要素,采用多指标叠套和多元逐步回归建立了佛山地区臭氧浓度预报方程;利用2018年资料检验发现,模拟值与实测值二者的相关系数R可达0.82,预报方程具有良好的拟合效果和可预报性.     

Longitudinal data analysis in support of functional stability concepts for leachate management at closed municipal landfills

Landfill functional stability provides a target that supports no environmental threat at the relevant point of exposure in the absence of active control systems. With respect to leachate management, this study investigates “gateway” indicators for functional stability in terms of the predictability of leachate characteristics, and thus potential threat to water quality posed by leachate emissions. Historical studies conducted on changes in municipal solid waste (MSW) leachate concentrations over time (longitudinal analysis) have concentrated on indicator compounds, primarily chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD). However, validation of these studies using an expanded database and larger constituent sets has not been performed. This study evaluated leachate data using a mixed-effects regression model to determine the extent to which leachate constituent degradation can be predicted based on waste age or operational practices. The final dataset analyzed consisted of a total of 1402 samples from 101 MSW landfills. Results from the study indicated that all leachate constituents exhibit a decreasing trend with time in the post-closure period, with 16 of the 25 target analytes and aggregate classes exhibiting a statistically significant trend consistent with well-studied indicators such as BOD. Decreasing trends in BOD concentration after landfill closure can thus be considered representative of trends for many leachate constituents of concern.     

Attitude towards the incorporation of the selective collection of biowaste in a municipal solid waste management system. A case study

European waste legislation has been encouraging for years the incorporation of selective collection systems for the biowaste fraction. European countries are therefore incorporating it into their current municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems. However, this incorporation involves changes in the current waste management habits of households. In this paper, the attitude of the public towards the incorporation of selective collection of biowaste into an existing MSWM system in a Spanish municipality is analysed. A semi-structured telephone interview was used to obtain information regarding aspects such as: level of participation in current waste collection systems, willingness to participate in selective collection of biowaste, reasons and barriers that affect participation, willingness to pay for the incorporation of the selective collection of biowaste and the socioeconomic characteristics of citizens who are willing to participate and pay for selective collection of biowaste. The results showed that approximately 81% of the respondents were willing to participate in selective collection of biowaste. This percentage would increase until 89% if the Town Council provided specific waste bins and bags, since the main barrier to participate in the new selective collection system is the need to use specific waste bin and bags for the separation of biowaste. A logit response model was applied to estimate the average willingness to pay, obtaining an estimated mean of 7.5% on top of the current waste management annual tax. The relationship of willingness to participate and willingness to pay for the implementation of this new selective collection with the socioeconomic variables (age, gender, size of the household, work, education and income) was analysed. Chi-square independence tests and binary logistic regression was used for willingness to participate, not being obtained any significant relationship. Chi-square independence tests, ordinal logistic regression and ordinary linear regression was applied for willingness to pay, obtaining statistically significant relationship for most of the socioeconomic variables.     

How much e-waste is there in US basements and attics? Results from a national survey

The fate of used electronic products (e-waste) is of increasing concern because of their toxicity and the growing volume of e-waste. Addressing these concerns requires developing the recycling infrastructure, but good estimates of the volume of e-waste stored by US households are still unavailable. In this context, we make two contributions based on a national random survey of 2136 US households. First, we explain how much e-waste is stored by US households using count models. Significant explanatory variables include age, marital and employment status, ethnicity, household size, previous e-waste recycling behavior, and to some extent education, home ownership, and understanding the consequences of recycling, but neither income nor knowledge of e-waste recycling laws. Second, we estimate that on average, each US household has 4.1 small (≤10 pounds) and 2.4 large e-waste items in storage. Although these numbers are likely lower bounds, they are higher than recent US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates (based on narrower product categories). This suggests that the backlog of e-waste in the US is likely larger than generally believed; it calls for developing the recycling infrastructure but also for targeted recycling campaigns.     

Evidence for Ph Insensitivity in Some Insects Inhabiting Peat Pools in the Loch Fleet Catchment

The impact of liming on the insects associated with peat pools was studied in the Loch Fleet catchment in 1991 and 1992. Fifty-six taxa were identified from 121 timed samples. Despite the raised pH associated with liming in 1986, the population densities of Odonata, Hemiptera and Coleoptera appeared to be unaffected when compared with those of untreated peat pools in the same area. the study demonstrated the existence of two main types of community, that of the steep-sided edges of pools, dominated by odonate nymphs and large species of beetles, and that of the shallower pools, dominated by Hydroporus species (Col., Dytiscidae).     

Surrogate Measures for Providing High Frequency Estimates of Total Suspended Solids and Total Phosphorus Concentrations1

Spackman Jones, Amber, David K. Stevens, Jeffery S. Horsburgh, and Nancy O. Mesner, 2010. Surrogate Measures for Providing High Frequency Estimates of Total Suspended Solids and Total Phosphorus Concentrations. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 1‐15. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00505.x Abstract: Surrogate measures like turbidity, which can be observed with high frequency in situ, have potential for generating high frequency estimates of total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. In the semiarid, snowmelt‐driven, and irrigation‐regulated Little Bear River watershed of northern Utah, high frequency in situ water quality measurements were recorded in conjunction with periodic chemistry sampling. Site‐specific relationships were developed using turbidity as a surrogate for TP and TSS at two monitoring locations. Methods are presented for employing censored data and for investigating categorical explanatory variables (e.g., hydrologic conditions). Turbidity was a significant explanatory variable for TP and TSS at both sites, which differ in hydrologic and water quality characteristics. The relationship between turbidity and TP was stronger at the upper watershed site where TP is predominantly particulate. At both sites, the relationships between turbidity and TP varied between spring snowmelt and base flow conditions while the relationships between TSS and turbidity were consistent across hydrological conditions. This approach enables the calculation of high frequency time series of TP and TSS concentrations previously unavailable using traditional monitoring approaches. These methods have broad application for situations that require accurate characterization of fluxes of these constituents over a range of hydrologic conditions.     

Measuring direct and indirect treatment effects using safety performance intervention functions

Recent traffic safety research has advocated the use of the Full Bayes (FB) approach to conduct controlled before-after safety evaluations. The FB approach was shown to offer both methodological and data advantages. However, there is still a lack of complete understanding of the role that the model parameters play in the formulation of treatment effectiveness. This paper offers a novel approach to compute components related to direct and indirect treatment effects under a linear intervention model for the Safety Performance Function (SPF). The isolation of a component corresponding to the direct treatment effects enables the analyst to assess the effectiveness of the countermeasures apart from local (site-related) environmental factors. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the approach. The first case study is based on the results published from a previous safety evaluation in Iowa and the second uses a new data set from British Columbia based on the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia Road Improvement Program. The various direct and indirect components have yielded valuable insight into the effects of the model parameters on treatment impacts. Moreover, the calculation of the treatment effectiveness indices have been simplified by providing straightforward equations in terms of model parameters for the computation of their components without resorting to additional algorithms. More importantly, the results can have a significant impact on the economic evaluation of safety programs and countermeasures by allowing the calculation of collision modification factors (CMFs) that vary with time.     

结合系统工程理论改善承包商安全管理

承包商事故在国内外事故中都占据着很高的比例.加强承包商安全管理是所有企业所面临的一个重要课题,应当引起各级管理者的重视.承包商安全管理涉及因素众多,可遵循系统工程方法论对其进行研究.对层次分析法和回归分析等理论在承包商安全管理中的应用进行了探讨.探讨了系统权重计算、系统决策、系统评估、系统预测的方法.建立了一个可以选择最优方案,对安全管理措施进行预先改进,实现闭环控制并且能够依据工作中的实际情况不断自我改进的系统模型,并根据假设的数据演示了该模型的建立步骤和计算方法.