重大自然灾害后心理干预行为教育对策

重大灾害对社会经济和生命财产安全都存在严重的影响,而灾区人们的心理变化和行为反应,与社会整体的抗灾救灾效果都具有较大的关联性。该文探讨重大灾害后心理干预行为教育对策,针对灾害对灾区人们产生的心理应激障碍问题,采用叙事疗法按照构建契约、故事重建、制图、探险、结束和复查五步骤,将灾区受灾人群从不良的生活模式中唤醒,并通过体育干预从主体、个体、群体三个角度指引灾区人群,建立正确、积极的人生价值观与社会价值观,采用阅读疗法优化灾区人群的认知结构。     

试论国家救灾资金的精准风险控制方法

传统救灾资金风险控制方法存在控制精准度较低的问题,为了解决这一问题该文提出基于多因素分析的救灾资金精准风险控制方法。首先通过对自然灾害区域的经济损失率进行计算,确定该受灾区域的经济损失情况;引入模糊集运算方法,计算出救灾资金分配的上下限值,实现救灾资金的精准分配。然后通过熵权法对救灾资金的风险进行预测,如果救灾资金的风险过高,则运用最小二乘法对预测矩阵进行修正,以降低救灾资金的风险。最后以地震规模预测和救灾资金分配的准确性为对比指标,通过实验验证本文方法的有效性。     

Livelihoods,precarity, and disaster vulnerability: Nicaragua and Hurricane Mitch

How livelihoods determine vulnerability to disasters is a recent topic of inquiry. Few quantitative works have been produced to date. The empirical analysis that follows draws on household‐level data available for Nicaragua, preceding and following Hurricane Mitch, a devastating Category 5 storm that made landfall in Central America in October 1998, to examine differentials in disaster recovery outcomes vis‐à‐vis household livelihood profiles. Livelihoods are distinguished according to economic sector along with ownership of productive means, a central mechanism of vulnerability under sociological labour frameworks. The findings indicate uneven recovery outcomes in relation to livelihoods. During the year immediately following the event, agricultural wage earners and agricultural owner‐producers experienced marked losses owing to the disaster, whereas business owners saw an improvement in condition. Analysis of long‐term recovery reveals that households reliant on agricultural wage employment exhibit lagged recovery relative to other livelihood profiles. The findings are discussed with respect to the dynamic pressures posed by contemporary developmental processes.     

基于卫星影像解译的华中地区自然景观分类与制图

依据１：１５０万中国卫星影像图并参考有关专题图件资料，通过景观组成要素分析法和专题图件对比分析法，拟定了华中地区自然景观分类系统并编制该区１：１５０万自然景观类型解译图，抽样检验表明，平均判对率达９０．５％。     

Rangeland utilisation assessment and modelling for grazing and fire management

To support grazing and fire management of communal semi-arid to sub-humid African rangelands, the assessment of grazing capacity is illustrated for cattle. The forage dry matter intake (DMI) was divided into four components: 1) the mature standing crop, 2) the green part of the standing crop, 3) the regrowth after range fires, and 4) browse. The relationship between the potential DMI and the crude protein (CP) concentration of the forage was modelled. The DMI ranged from 5 to 50% for forage with low to high CP concentrations, respectively. The DMI of browse was fixed at 0 and 10% of the DMI of unburnt vegetation for plain and woodland systems, respectively. The potential DMI of the four forage components combined, based on data of the early- to mid-dry season, was matched with livestock requirements to calculate grazing capacities. Possible combinations of and changes in the forage components, representing grazing capacities for different seasons of the year, were calculated and visualised. Lastly, it was demonstrated how to assess the proportion of the rangeland that should be burnt to make optimal use of the low quality forage available in abundance and the small amount of high quality regrowth.     

复合地基不同参数对地面动力特性的影响分析

复合地基在我国的应用极为广泛,但应用水平参差不齐,工程质量需要提高,更需要理论指导。由于复合地基的复杂性,复合地基参数对地震作用下地面运动特性的影响,学者研究的结论和意见也不一致。因此,进一步研究其理论及工程应用问题既是客观要求又是现实需要。为了更深入地探讨有关问题,笔者采用有限元法,引入粘弹性人工边界,同时把地震波转化为等效荷载输入到模型中,认为比较符合实际。最后,通过系统分析,得出了一些有益的结论,有一定的工程价值,同时也为进一步研究提供了科学依据。     

可持续发展的奥地利林业及其对我国的启示

奥地利森林发展经历了完好、破坏、保护、可持续发展等四个历史阶段.由于政府高度重视,加强投入,用可持续发展的原则指导林业建设,特别是提出了科学的建设近自然林的方针,奥地利林业建设已经走上了健康的可持续发展的轨道.目前奥地利森林覆盖率已达46.2%,有2/3的森林为近自然林,采伐量大大低于生长量.其林业发展理论、法规和政府的扶持政策对我国具有重要的借鉴意义.     

自然灾害软风险区划图模式研究

如何表达风险值估计不准,是深层次风险区划研究的问题.将模糊风险研究引向自然灾害风险区划领域,探讨了风险值估计不准条件下自然灾害风险区划的图型模式.给出了一种带有“层次“结构的“多值的“的自然灾害风险区划图图型模式.这是应用软计算的思想和方法得到的一种自然灾害风险区划图,我们称之为自然灾害软风险区划图.自然灾害软风险区划图不仅提供了表达风险值估计不准这一信息,而且提供了风险信息的可靠性,为改进自然灾害风险区划提供一种新的思路.     

内蒙古自治区农牧业自然灾害特征分析

本文采用近50年的农牧业气象灾害数据资料和近15年的农牧业病虫害及灾情数据资料,结合实地调查,对内蒙古自治区主要农牧业自然灾害的发生特征和平均状况进行了分析.研究表明:近50年本区农业自然灾害有加重趋势;从年际来看,旱灾、病虫鼠害、风灾较稳定频发,水灾、冻灾、火灾年际变率大;旱灾、冻灾、火灾、风灾冬春多发;多种灾害链发等.在此基础上结合自然条件探究原因,提出了一些防灾减灾的建议.     

乡镇企业中的资源优势

本文以湖北省监利县为例，通过对乡镇企业的分布特点、经营结构和经济效益的分析，提出了发展乡镇企业的制约因素和经营效益的评价模型．并指出了乡镇企业的发展方向和变资源优势为产品优势的途径。