我国可持续能源工业发展思考

中国一次能源消费结构严重滞后于世界能源工业发展，但中国具有发展天然气、核电、水电等洁净能源的巨大前景，因此大力发展天然气、核电等能源是中国建立可持续能源工业的重要选择。     

Investment Risks of Agricultural Listed Companies from Visual Angle of Natural Disasters

The essential feature of agriculture is the interweavement of natural reproduction and economic reproduction. In recent years, the natural disasters have become more frequent and badly affect the production management and investment benefits. This problem has been an important risk in managing agricultural listed companies and cannot be ignored. It is of great importance to evaluate and prevent the risks of the natural disasters to enhance the competitive ability and increase the profits of those listed companies, thereby keeping the sustainable development of agricultural companies.     

环境伦理学价值关系的评价——论罗尔斯顿的内在价值理论

罗尔斯顿把价值评价关系引入了自然系统,想从自然的创造性关系引出价值的关系,并把价值最重要的属性看作是创造性,因而,他也就偏离了主体设定的价值取向,把价值的生成看成是自然本身的事情了。     

天然气管道水平定向钻穿越事故及其后果分析

水平定向钻穿越施工以其导向准确、施工周期短、综合成本低等众多优点,越来越多地被应用于天然气管道工程。本文运用故障树分析方法,对天然气管道水平定向钻穿越施工中存在的导向孔质量不合格、预扩孔失败、管道回拖失败、地面塌陷、环境污染、人员伤亡等事故及其后果进行了识别和分析,辨识出天然气管道水平定向钻穿越事故及其后果的二十一个主要影响因素,把其归纳为施工事故和管理事故两大类,并提出相应控制措施将定向钻穿越事故及其后果降低至最低水平,在天然气管道水平定向钻穿越的安全施工方面具有重要的工程应用价值和现实意义。     

Effects of Economic Downturns on Mortality of Wild African Elephants

Abstract: Declines in economic activity and associated changes in human livelihood strategies can increase threats of species overexploitation. This is exemplified by the effects of economic crises, which often drive intensification of subsistence poaching and greater reliance on natural resources. Whereas development theory links natural resource use to social‐economic conditions, few empirical studies of the effect of economic downturns on wild animal species have been conducted. I assessed the relations between African elephant (Loxodonta africana) mortality and human‐caused wounds in Samburu, Kenya and (1) livestock and maize prices (measures of local economic conditions), (2) change in national and regional gross domestic product (GDP) (measures of macroeconomic conditions), and (3) the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (a correlate of primary productivity). In addition, I analyzed household survey data to determine the attitudes of local people toward protected areas and wild animals in the area. When cattle prices in the pastoralist study region were low, human‐caused wounds to and adult mortality of elephants increased. The NDVI was negatively correlated with juvenile mortality, but not correlated with adult mortality. Changes in Kenyan and East Asian (primary market for ivory) GDP did not explain significant variation in mortality. Increased human wounding of elephants and elephant mortality during periods of low livestock prices (local economic downturns) likely reflect an economically driven increase in ivory poaching. Local but not macroeconomic indices explained significant variation in mortality, likely due to the dominance of the subsistence economy in the study area and its political and economic isolation. My results suggest economic metrics can serve as effective indicators of changes in human use of and resulting effects on natural resources. Such information can help focus management approaches (e.g., antipoaching effort or proffering of alternative occupational opportunities) that address variation in local activities that threaten plant and animal populations.     

安全史学的方法论研究

从历史研究发展和安全科学发展的角度分析安全史学研究的重要性和必要性。对安全史学的定义、安全史学认识系统结构、安全史学研究的特征进行综述,详细分析安全史学的研究对象及其分类。基于史学方法论原则和安全科学的方法论原则,总结了安全史学的方法论原则。分析安全史学研究的一般方法即归纳方法、比较方法和综合方法在安全科学研究中的应用,从安全史学研究资料的搜集和分析过程提出安全史学方法学。综合相关文献资料,结合马斯洛层次需求理论和系统论,提出基于人的需求层次的安全史学系统研究法及其应用,为安全史学研究的开展提供理论依据。     

中国东北区水资源量天然可再生能力分异及其对土地利用变化的响应

从水循环的角度对水资源的可再生能力进行表征 ,并在GIS技术支持下 ,对中国东北区天然水资源量可再生能力时空分异进行了系统剖析 ;并结合东北区 1986～2000年间的土地利用变化 ,揭示了东北区天然水资源可再生能力分异对土地利用变化的响应 .1956～2001年间 ,东北区多年平均水资源量为 1991.52亿m³,具有显著的时空变化特征 ;且水资源变化具有33a、11a和 4a周期 .1980～2001年间 ,东北区水资源可再生能力呈现出下降趋势 ,下降幅度和年际间的变化强度具有显著的空间分异特征 .水资源可再生能力与土地利用的耦合变化表明 ,需在分布式生态 水文机理剖析的基础上 ,对中国东北区的土地利用格局进行科学调整 ,以使得在人类活动剧烈干扰的环境背景下 ,水资源的可再生能力仍能维持在一个较高的水平上 .     

生命周期方法在天然气基汽车燃料评价中的运用

运用生命周期评价方法,对以天然气为原料生产压缩天然气、甲醇、二甲醚、柴油4种汽车代用燃料系统进行生命周期的能源、环境和经济评价,评价结果是：压缩天然气系统生命周期内的能耗相对少,总成本相对低,对生态环境更友好,压缩天然气是富含天然气地区一段时期内汽车代用燃料的优先选择．     

沸石改性天然粘土防渗层性能研究

用不同比例的沸石对天然粘土进行改性,对改性粘土防渗层的渗透性、去除主要污染物的有效性和控制渗滤液渗透的可行性进行研究。实验结果表明改性粘土防渗层的渗透系数随沸石比例的增加而增大,如果沸石的配比适当,其渗透系数可达到低于1×10-7cm/s的现行标准,而且提高了防渗层的污染物去除能力。因此,沸石改性粘土作为垃圾填埋场防渗材料是可行的。     

中国自然灾害综合研究的进展

为了了解我国的灾情总况,研究多国自然灾害的总体特点和规律,提出了我国宏观减灾对策,为此,研究组做了量研究工作,本文从九个方面概述了中国自然灾害综合研究的进展状况。