计算机安全技术

在当今信息时代，林业安全管理所需要的信息要实现网络化必须以计算机安全技术为基础。本文主要介绍了计算机安全技术所需要注意的一些问题，同时举例说明实现单机运行安全的几种方法。     

供水管线震害量化参数--渗漏面积的估算方法

为了分析管线破坏状态对震后供水管网功能的影响，首先需要对管线的震害状态进行量化。建议用管线渗漏面积标定管线的破坏状态。在管线震害分析和理论计算的基础上，提出了震后管线渗漏面积的计算方法，为进一步进行供水管网抗震分析和设计提供了研究基础。     

四川省泥石流灾害保险的风险分析与区划

泥石流灾害保险的风险评估和区划，是分区分类防灾和损失评估的重要依据，也是泥石流灾害保险费率厘定的基础。采用综合评判的数学方法，选取对泥石流灾害保险起主导作用的灾害损失、孕灾环境和风险区价值为评判因子，对泥石流灾害保险的风险进行了评估。以四川省为例，介绍了进行风险区划的方法和步骤，将四川全省按地、市、州级行政区划分为19个风险评判区，对各区进行泥石流灾害保险风险评估，在此基础上完成了四川省泥石流灾害保险风险评估区划图。     

我国矿业"走出去"风险勘探问题分析与建议

根据我国资源条件和经济发展的需要以及获取国外资源的方式进行比较分析得知，我国非常有必要到国外进行风险勘探。虽然我国经历了多年境外风险勘探的实践和探索，但是步伐缓慢，在实践中面临很多问题。对此，作者提出了我国境外风险勘探问题的建议。     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: An Approach for Characterizing Tropospheric Ozone Risk to Forests

/ The risk tropospheric ozone poses to forests in the United States is dependent on the variation in ozone exposure across the distribution of the forests in question and the various environmental and climate factors predominant in the region. All these factors have a spatial nature, and consequently an approach to characterization of ozone risk is presented that places ozone exposure-response functions for species as seedlings and model-simulated tree and stand responses in a spatial context using a geographical information systems (GIS). The GIS is used to aggregate factors considered important in a risk characterization, including: (1) estimated ozone exposures over forested regions, (2) measures of ozone effects on species' and stand growth, and (3) spatially distributed environmental, genetic, and exposure influences on species' response to ozone. The GIS-based risk characterization provides an estimation of the extent and magnitude of the potential ozone impact on forests. A preliminary risk characterization demonstrating this approach considered only the eastern United States and only the limited empirical data quantifying the effect of ozone exposures on forest tree species as seedlings. The area-weighted response of the annual seedling biomass loss formed the basis for a sensitivity ranking: sensitive-aspen and black cherry (14%-33% biomass loss over 50% of their distribution); moderately sensitive-tulip popular, loblolly pine, eastern white pine, and sugar maple (5%-13% biomass loss); insensitive-Virginia pine and red maple (0%-1% loss). In the future, the GIS-based risk characterization will include process-based model simulations of the three- to 5-year growth response of individual species as large trees with relevant environmental interactions and model simulated response of mixed stands. The interactive nature of GIS provides a tool to explore consequences of the range of climate conditions across a species' distribution, forest management practices, changing ozone precursors, regulatory control strategies, and other factors influencing the spatial distribution of ozone over time as more information becomes available.KEY WORDS: Ecological risk assessment; GIS; Ozone; Risk characterization; Forests; Trees     

QUALITY OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATA IN COLD REGIONS1

ABSTRACT: Many users of hydrometeorological records are not aware of the number of inconsistencies and biases that occur in hydrometeorological records. Examples are presented illustrating how the exposures of sites for measurement of precipitation, wind, snow on the ground, and evaporation determine to a large extent how useful the records are for estimating areal conditions. For areas where precipitation in the form of snow produces a significant portion of the runoff, a smaller number of quality records may be more valuable for modeling than a much larger number of records of lower quality. Information is presented to show that the overall value of an operational hydrometeorological network is dependent upon how consistent and representative of average conditions the collected records are, especially for mountainous areas in cold regions.     

神经网络及其在水库调洪演算中的应用

结合洪水灾害管理的特点建立了水库调洪演算的人工神经网络模型，阐述了其基本原理及算法，并结合某水库调洪演算实例说明了其应用。     

用事故树分析法进行炼厂油罐爆炸事故的环境风险评价

论述了风险、风险评价、环境风险评价的概念及其主要内容，说明利用事故树分析法进行工程环境风险评价的程序和方法。并运用这种方法对某炼厂油罐爆炸事故进行了大气环境风险评价。     

Ecosystem management to achieve ecological sustainability: The case of South Florida

The ecosystems of South Florida are unique in the world. The defining features of the natural Everglades (large spatial scale, temporal patterns of water storage and sheetflow, and low nutrient levels) historically allowed a mosaic of habitats with characteristic animals. Massive hydrological alterations have halved the Everglades, and ecological sustainability requires fundamental changes in management.The US Man and the Biosphere Human-Dominated Systems Directorate is conducting a case study of South Florida using ecosystem management as a framework for exploring options for mutually dependent sustainability of society and the environment. A new methodology was developed to specify sustainability goals, characterize human factors affecting the ecosystem, and conduct scenario/consequence analyses to examine ecological and societal implications. South Florida has sufficient water for urban, agricultural, and ecological needs, but most water drains to the sea through the system of canals; thus, the issue is not competition for resources but storage and management of water. The goal is to reestablish the natural system for water quantity, timing, and distribution over a sufficient area to restore the essence of the Everglades.The societal sustainability in the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) is at risk because of soil degradation, vulnerability of sugar price supports, policies affecting Cuban sugar imports, and political/economic forces aligned against sugar production. One scenario suggested using the EAA for water storage while under private sugar production, thereby linking sustainability of the ecological system with societal sustainability. Further analyses are needed, but the US MAB project suggests achieving ecological sustainability consistent with societal sustainability may be feasible.     

TOPHAZOP: a knowledge-based software tool for conducting HAZOP in a rapid, efficient yet inexpensive manner

Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies constitute an essential step in the risk analysis of any chemical process industry and involve systematic identification of every conceivable abnormal process deviation, its causes and abnormal consequences. These authors have recently proposed optHAZOP as an alternative procedure for conducting HAZOP studies in a shorter span of time than taken by conventional HAZOP procedure, with greater accuracy and effectiveness [Khan, F. I. and Abassi, S. A., optHAZOP. An effective and efficient technique for hazard identification and assessment Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 1997, 10, 191–204]. optHAZOP consists of several steps, the most crucial one requires use of a knowledge-based software tool which would significantly reduce the requirement of expert man-hours and speed up the work of the study team. TOPHAZOP (Tool for OPTmizing HAZOP) has been developed to fulfil this need.

The TOPHAZOP knowledge-base consists of two main branches: process-specific and general. The TOPHAZOP framework allows these two branches to interact during the analysis to address the process-specific aspects of HAZOP analysis while maintaining the generality of the system. The system is open-ended and modular in structure to make easy implementation and/or expansion of knowledge. The important features of TOPHAZOP and its performance on an industrial case study are described.