An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment.To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental carrying capacity.     

A Social Contract for Biotechnology: Shared Visions for Risky Technologies?

Future technological developmentsconcerning food, agriculture, and theenvironment face a gulf of social legitimationfrom a skeptical public and media, in the wakeof the crises of BSE, GM food, and foot andmouth disease in the UK (House of Lords, 2000). Keyethical issues were ignored by the bioindustry,regulators, and the Government, leaving alegacy of distrust. The paper examinesagricultural biotechnology in terms of a socialcontract, whose conditions would have to be fulfilled togain acceptance of novel applications. Variouscurrent and future GM applications areevaluated against these conditions. Successwould depend critically on how far a sharedvision can be found with the public. Tore-establish trust, significant changes areidentified in the planning and pursuit ofbiotechnology.     

Discrimination and bias in the vegan ideal

The vegan ideal is entailed by arguments for ethical veganism based on traditional moral theory (rights and/or utilitarianism) extended to animals. The most ideal lifestyle would abjure the use of animals or their products for food since animals suffer and have rights not to be killed. The ideal is discriminatory because the arguments presuppose a male physiological norm that gives a privileged position to adult, middle-class males living in industrialized countries. Women, children, the aged, and others have substantially different nutritional requirements and would bear a greater burden on vegetarian and vegan diets with respect to health and economic risks, than do these males. The poor and many persons in Third World nations live in circumstances that make the obligatory adoption of such diets, where they are not already a matter of sheer necessity, even more risky.Traditional moral theorists (such as Evelyn Pluhar and Gary Varner whose essays appear in this issue) argue that those who are at risk would beexcused from a duty to attain the virtue associated with ethical vegan lifestyles. The routine excuse of nearly everyone in the world besides adult, middle-class males in industrialized countries suggests bias in the perspective from which traditional arguments for animal rights and (utilitarian) animal welfare are formulated.     

“土壤环境质量标准”编制进展

报导了国内外在编制“土壤环境质量标准”的最新进展，论述了编制时应考虑到的一些关键因素，主要包括，编制时依据的技术路线，污染物的种类和形态，土壤性质（ＰＨ、有机质、Ｅｈ、Ｒ２Ｏ３的类型和含量、阳离子代换量和质地）和作物因素，简介了我国最近新编制完成的“土壤环境质量标准”的主要内容，并建议今后补充和进一步完善的部分。     

十种有机磷农药对扁藻的毒性

报告了十种有机磷农药对扁藻生长的半数抑制浓度ＥＣ５０值，依其毒性大小分：辛硫磷为剧毒；甲基异柳磷、对硫磷、甲基对硫磷为高毒；敌敌畏、氯化乐果、甲胺磷（江苏）、果保灵、甲胺磷（山东）为中等毒性；久效磷、杀灭毙为低毒，并初步探讨了有机磷农药结构和对微藻毒性大小的关系。     

Time-varying models for extreme values

We propose a new approach for modeling extreme values that are measured in time and space. First we assume that the observations follow a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for which the location, scale or shape parameters define the space–time structure. The temporal component is defined through a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) or state space representation that allows to estimate the trend or seasonality of the data in time. The spatial element is imposed through the evolution matrix of the DLM where we adopt a process convolution form. We show how to produce temporal and spatial estimates of our model via customized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. We illustrate our methodology with extreme values of ozone levels produced daily in the metropolitan area of Mexico City and with rainfall extremes measured at the Caribbean coast of Venezuela.     

Implications of 'low maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein levels: Are maternal age risk criteria obsolete?

An association has been reported between “low” maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) and fetal chromosome abnormalities, notably Down syndrome. We suggest the predictive value be used for genetic counselling when a “low” MSAFP is found, and present an illustrative risk table. It can also be seen that normal MSAFP in a woman may lower her age-related risks below that previously defined as “high risk”. However, until good estimates of sensitivity and specificity are available from prospective, population based studies, patients should be told that any risk estimates are rough approximations. When good estimates are available, use of age risks alone may become obsolete.     

IDENTIFYING AND MEASURING POTENTIAL CONFLICT IN WATER INSTITUTIONS1

ABSTRACT: Scarcity combined with differences in values, beliefs, and attitudes can lead to behavior differences and conflicts over water. This paper develops an index for measuring potential conflict using survey information about water attitudes and beliefs of individuals in three groups in a Florida case study. The index helps in assessing the current capability of the institution to reduce conflict. The results suggest that the current institution is effective, but changes may help to streamline the consumptive-use permitting process, to improve educational programs, and to seek improved institutional arrangements to reduce future conflict over economic uses of water.     

Indigenous Grass Ecology and Socio-Economic Values in Swaziland

The fast-degrading land resources of Swaziland requires a multi-faceted approach to their management. One resource of utmost importance to all Swazis is grass. Grass research over the years had focused on pasture grass, while other uses have been neglected. The omission is a serious one and could be attributed to the neglect of indigenous grass knowledge and people's socio-economic values of grasses. Grass as a major resource is used for cattle feed, ecological control measures, medicinal plants and crafts. Within the study area, 46 grass species were identified and described by the local people. The neglect of the people's knowledge and utilitarian values of grass is a waste of resources. Thus, for grass research to be relevant to the people and national development objectives, research scientists should rethink their approach; they need to recognize and incorporate the indigenous knowledge about other uses of grasses.     

USING VALUES IN PLANNING WASTEWATER FACILITIES FOR METROPOLITAN SEATTLE1

ABSTRACT: This paper uses the fundamental values of decision makers to guide a long-term wastewater planning process at Seattle Metro, a major utility district. Multiattribute value assessment is used to elicit the objectives of several elected officials and other key decision makers. The results are structured into a fundamental objectives hierarchy and a means-ends objectives network. A set of measures to indicate the performance of planning alternatives in terms of the fundamental objectives is developed. Preliminary value tradeoffs between objectives are elicited from several elected officials. The results of these steps are useful for many aspects of long-term planning: facilitating communication about values and priorities; designing attractive alternatives that are more likely to serve stakeholder interests; identifying information needed to evaluate alternatives; clarifying the relative importance of information about different impacts; providing a basis for quantitative evaluation of the alternatives with multiple objective analysis; and focusing attention on key tradeoffs that will affect the choice of alternatives.