地震发生前后民众心理分析及传播作为

通过对地震前后民众心理的探究及案例分析显示,阐明信息传播在防震救灾工作中的重要位置.并试从传播学的角度,将防震救灾工作与新闻传播紧密结合,提出了解决当前地震预报工作与信息发布之间的矛盾与困惑的方法.     

THE IMPACT OF FLOODPLAIN REGULATIONS ON RESIDENTIAL LAND VALUES IN OREGON1

ABSTRACT: The impact of floodplain regulations on mean appreciation rates of residential land values was tested at six study areas in five counties in western Oregon. The study hypothesis that such regulations significantly depress appreciation rates of regulated lands relative to those of similar unregulated lands was in most cases rejected. When the hypothesis was accepted circumstances would render conclusions tenuous. The problems and issues facing this type of research are presented in case studies of two of the research study areas. The following factors challenge investigators seeking to resolve questions about the relationship between land use regulations and land values: varying degrees of stringency with which regulations are enforced; unequal assessment procedures between counties; influences external to floodplain regulations that may affect appreciation rates, including denial of permits for septic tanks, flood damages, and amenity values associated with waterfront locations; and the uncertain effect that the availability of flood insurance, which accompanies floodplain regulations, has on land values.     

BENEFITS OF POLLUTION CONTROL ON MASSACHUSETTS’ HOUSATONIC RIVER: A HEDONIC PRICING APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: This paper illustrates one mode of analysis for estimating the benefits of water pollution control projects. Results indicate regional benefits associated with an abatement program instituted for point source pollution along the Housatonic River during the 1960's were substantial. Studies of this kind can aid regulatory and recreation resource administrators in devising and evaluating environmental programs.     

鄱阳湖入湖河流氮磷水质控制限值研究

鄱阳湖近年氮磷营养物浓度逐步升高,入湖河流是鄱阳湖氮磷输入的重要途径.采用BATHTUB模型建立了鄱阳湖入湖河流与湖区ρ（TP）、ρ（TN）的响应关系,模拟了入湖河流执行GB 3838—2002《地表水环境质量标准》中不同氮磷标准限值对湖区水质的影响,发现当入湖河流ρ（TP）执行河流Ⅲ类标准限值或超过Ⅲ类标准限值时,对应湖区ρ（TP）超标;入湖河流执行Ⅲ类及以上湖泊水质标准限值时,湖区水质可以达到Ⅲ类保护目标,但对入湖河流存在一定的过保护现象.因此,以满足现行湖泊水质达标为情景,以湖泊ρ（TP）、ρ（TN）各类别标准限值为目标,试算了入湖河流氮磷控制限值,提出了鄱阳湖入湖河流的氮磷控制限值建议方案,其中鄱阳湖湖体水质目标为Ⅲ类时,入湖河流ρ（TP）、ρ（TN）控制限值分别为0.075和1.20 mg/L,此时入湖河流氮磷控制限值方案既能保证湖泊水质达标,又不会造成对河流的水质控制过于严格.研究显示,基于湖泊水环境质量达标情况试算的入湖河流氮磷所需控制限值,建议可作为解决入湖氮磷污染控制问题的参考.      

Nature and Nature Values in Organic Agriculture. An Analysis of Contested Concepts and Values Among Different Actors in Organic Farming

The relationship between agriculture and nature is a central issue in the current agricultural debate. Organic Farming has ambitions and a special potential in relation to nature. Consideration for nature is part of the guiding principals of organic farming and many organic farmers are committed to protecting natural qualities. However, the issue of nature, landscape, and land use is not straightforward. Nature is an ambiguous concept that involves multiple interests and actors reaching far beyond farmers. The Danish research project Nature Quality in Organic Farming has investigated the relationship between nature and organic farming. This article will focus on an expert workshop held in connection with the project that investigates the way different actors conceptualize nature. Farmers, scientists, and non-governmental organizations came together to discuss their experiences of nature and expectations of organic agriculture. From this interaction, it was clear that nature is a contested notion. Different understandings of nature exist within the three groups and there is disagreement as to whether emphasis should be given to biological qualities, production values, or experiential and aesthetic perspectives. This complexity provides a challenge to organic farming as well as to the implementation of nature considerations in general. It illustrates an underlying battle for the right to define nature and nature quality and essentially decide what organic farmers should work towards. We argue that successful implementation requires organic farmers to carefully consider what expectations they wish to meet. Optimally it is dependent on a dialog between stakeholder interest groups that allows for multivocality and pluralism.     

宜宾市酸雨pH值预测的偏最小二乘回归分析

酸雨pH值受酸性离子(有机酸、无机酸)和碱性离子的影响。这些影响因素之间存在多重相关性。用一般最小二乘回归法建模预测pH值,估计参数存在着很大的误差,而且物理意义明显不足。本文以宜宾市区2002-2003年的27组降雨监测数据作为样本数据,应用偏最小二乘回归技术建立pH值预测模型,克服了自变量之间的多重相关性的问题。与最小二乘回归法相比更具有先进性,计算结果更为可靠;在确定了模型可行性后,分析比较了影响宜宾市区酸雨pH值的离子的重要性和离子来源。     

An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment.To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental carrying capacity.     

A Social Contract for Biotechnology: Shared Visions for Risky Technologies?

Future technological developmentsconcerning food, agriculture, and theenvironment face a gulf of social legitimationfrom a skeptical public and media, in the wakeof the crises of BSE, GM food, and foot andmouth disease in the UK (House of Lords, 2000). Keyethical issues were ignored by the bioindustry,regulators, and the Government, leaving alegacy of distrust. The paper examinesagricultural biotechnology in terms of a socialcontract, whose conditions would have to be fulfilled togain acceptance of novel applications. Variouscurrent and future GM applications areevaluated against these conditions. Successwould depend critically on how far a sharedvision can be found with the public. Tore-establish trust, significant changes areidentified in the planning and pursuit ofbiotechnology.     

From Adaptive Management to Adjustive Management: A Pragmatic Account of Biodiversity Values

Abstract: The conservation of biodiversity poses an exceptionally difficult problem in that it needs to be effective in a context of double uncertainty: scientific (i.e., how to conserve biodiversity) and normative (i.e., which biodiversity to conserve and why). Although adaptive management offers a promising approach to overcome scientific uncertainty, normative uncertainty is seldom tackled by conservation science. We expanded on the approach proposed by adaptive‐management theorists by devising an integrative and iterative approach to conservation that encompasses both types of uncertainty. Inspired by environmental pragmatism, we suggest that moral values at stake in biodiversity conservation are plastic and that a plurality of individual normative positions can coexist and evolve. Moral values should thus be explored through an experimental process as additional parameters to be incorporated in the traditional adaptive‐management approach. As such, moral values should also be monitored by environmental ethicists working side by side with scientists and managers on conservation projects. Acknowledging the diversity of moral values and integrating them in a process of collective deliberation will help overcome the normative uncertainty. We used Dewey's distinction between adaptation and adjustment to offer a new paradigm built around what we call adjustive management, which reflects both the uncertainty and the likely evolution of the moral values humans attribute to biodiversity. We illustrate how this paradigm relates to practical conservation decisions by exploring the case of the Sacred Ibis (Threskiornis aethiopicus), an alien species in France that is the target of an eradication plan undertaken with little regard for moral issues. We propose that a more satisfying result of efforts to control Sacred Ibis could have been reached by rerouting the traditional feedback loop of adaptive management to include a normative inquiry. This adjustive management approach now needs to be tested in real‐case conservation programs.     

Non-market values of forest biodiversity and the impact of informing the general public: Insights from generalized multinomial logit estimations

Apart from the ethical argument around trade-off that individuals have to make between monetary and non-monetary value, application of stated preference method was exposed to another criticism related to the complexity of biodiversity issue and the capacity of the general public to provide accurate responses to willingness to pay elicitation survey. This paper tests how providing information about the ecological processes underlying forest management scenarios affects public preferences and their valuation of biodiversity in publicly owned forest land in France. The generalized multinomial logit models applied to choice experiment data suggests that all respondents adopt the same heuristics based on easily visible aspects of forest landscape, to reveal their use and nonuse values of biodiversity. However, when they receive additional ecological information, only those who are familiar with the biodiversity concept, have awareness of issues at stake, and have a regular use of forest tend to attach higher values to less known biodiversity component (fallen deadwood in this case). The paper concludes that “mass media campaign” has to be completed by environmental literacy programs, to improve people’s awareness and understanding of what biodiversity means from ecological functioning, then making economic valuation a useful tool from a conservation perspective.