Using Decision Analysis to Choose Phosphorus Targets for Lake Erie

Lake Erie water quality has improved dramatically since the degraded conditions of the 1960s. Additional gains could be made, but at the expense of further investment and reductions in fishery productivity. In facing such cross-jurisdictional issues, natural resource managers in Canada and the United States must grapple with conflicting objectives and important uncertainties, while considering the priorities of the public that live in the basin. The techniques and tools of decision analysis have been used successfully to deal with such decision problems in a range of environmental settings, but infrequently in the Great Lakes. The objective of this paper is to illustrate how such techniques might be brought to bear on an important, real decision currently facing Lake Erie resource managers and stakeholders: the choice of new phosphorus loading targets for the lake. The heart of our approach is a systematic elicitation of stakeholder preferences and an investigation of the degree to which different phosphorus-loading policies might satisfy ecosystem objectives. Results show that there are potential benefits to changing the historical policy of reducing phosphorus loads in Lake Erie.     

An Exploration of the Value of Naturalness and Wild Nature

The source of the value of naturalness is of considerable relevance for the conservation movement, to philosophers, and to society generally. However, naturalness is a complex quality and resists straightforward definition. Here, two interpretations of what is “natural” are explored. One of these assesses the naturalness of species and ecosystems with reference to a benchmark date, such as the advent of industrialization. The value of naturalness in this case largely reflects prioritization of the value of biodiversity. However, the foundation of our understanding of naturalness is that it describes processes that are free of human intervention. Conflict between the two interpretations of naturalness is apparent in the claim that naturalness can be enhanced by human intervention, in the form of ecological restoration. Although naturalness in its purest form precludes human intervention, some human activities are also apparently more natural than others. This continuum of naturalness relates to the autonomy of the individual from abstract instrumentalism, which describes a particular form of influence ubiquitous in contemporary society. The value of naturalness reflects both dissatisfaction with these threats to personal autonomy, and respect for wild nature as the embodiment of a larger-than-human realm.     

Balancing Emotion and Cognition: a Case for Decision Aiding in Conservation Efforts

Abstract: Despite advances in the quality of participatory decision making for conservation, many current efforts still suffer from an inability to bridge the gap between science and policy. Judgment and decision‐making research suggests this gap may result from a person's reliance on affect‐based shortcuts in complex decision contexts. I examined the results from 3 experiments that demonstrate how affect (i.e., the instantaneous reaction one has to a stimulus) influences individual judgments in these contexts and identified techniques from the decision‐aiding literature that help encourage a balance between affect‐based emotion and cognition in complex decision processes. In the first study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on their stated conservation objectives and made decisions that reflected their initial affective impressions. Value‐focused approaches may help individuals incorporate all the decision‐relevant objectives by making the technical and value‐based objectives more salient. In the second study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on statistical risk and again made affect‐based decisions. Trade‐off techniques may help individuals incorporate relevant technical data, even when it conflicts with their initial affective impressions or other value‐based objectives. In the third study, subjects displayed a lack of trust in decision‐making authorities when the decision involved a negatively affect‐rich outcome (i.e., a loss). Identifying shared salient values and increasing procedural fairness may help build social trust in both decision‐making authorities and the decision process.     

Advancing values-based approaches to climate change adaptation: A case study from Australia

Coastal flooding affects physical and social place attachments. Values-based approaches to climate change adaptation examine how risks to place attachments are distributed within and among communities, with a view to informing equitable adaptation policies. In this nascent body of research, divergent theoretical frameworks and empirical approaches to measuring social values are evolving. While some studies explore the things people value about their everyday lives generally—the lived values approach, others locate specific social and cultural values in geographic space—the landscape values mapping approach. This study aims to compare the explanatory value of these two approaches for understanding the social risks of sea-level rise, and appraise whether either or both approaches are likely to meet local adaptation planning needs. It does this by examining the potential social impacts of sea-level rise in Kingston Beach, Australia, informed by a mail-out survey of the community. The lived values approach identified that the natural environment, scenery, relaxed lifestyle and safety are highly important to local residents, while the landscape values mapping approach revealed that Kingston Main Beach is the most highly valued of eight coastal landscape units. Incorporating the landscape values mapping into the lived values cluster analysis revealed that while Kingston Main Beach is highly important for its recreational value to some members of the community, for others manmade features such as community halls or sports ovals may be of higher importance because they facilitate social interactions. There is potential to further integrate these two approaches to better inform adaptation policy about how lived and landscape values are distributed among communities, where they are located in space and whether they change over time. A deeper understanding of such assigned values can lead to improved engagement with coastal residents to inform adaptation policy now and into the future.     

Lower Leg Injury Reference Values and Risk Curves from Survival Analysis for Male and Female Dummies: Meta-analysis of Postmortem Human Subject Tests

Objective: Derive lower leg injury risk functions using survival analysis and determine injury reference values (IRV) applicable to human mid-size male and small-size female anthropometries by conducting a meta-analysis of experimental data from different studies under axial impact loading to the foot–ankle–leg complex.

Methods: Specimen-specific dynamic peak force, age, total body mass, and injury data were obtained from tests conducted by applying the external load to the dorsal surface of the foot of postmortem human subject (PMHS) foot–ankle–leg preparations. Calcaneus and/or tibia injuries, alone or in combination and with/without involvement of adjacent articular complexes, were included in the injury group. Injury and noninjury tests were included. Maximum axial loads recorded by a load cell attached to the proximal end of the preparation were used. Data were analyzed by treating force as the primary variable. Age was considered as the covariate. Data were censored based on the number of tests conducted on each specimen and whether it remained intact or sustained injury; that is, right, left, and interval censoring. The best fits from different distributions were based on the Akaike information criterion; mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained; and normalized confidence interval sizes (quality indices) were determined at 5, 10, 25, and 50% risk levels. The normalization was based on the mean curve. Using human-equivalent age as 45 years, data were normalized and risk curves were developed for the 50th and 5th percentile human size of the dummies.

Results: Out of the available 114 tests (76 fracture and 38 no injury) from 5 groups of experiments, survival analysis was carried out using 3 groups consisting of 62 tests (35 fracture and 27 no injury). Peak forces associated with 4 specific risk levels at 25, 45, and 65 years of age are given along with probability curves (mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals) for PMHS and normalized data applicable to male and female dummies. Quality indices increased (less tightness-of-fit) with decreasing age and risk level for all age groups and these data are given for all chosen risk levels.

Conclusions: These PMHS-based probability distributions at different ages using information from different groups of researchers constituting the largest body of data can be used as human tolerances to lower leg injury from axial loading. Decreasing quality indices (increasing index value) at lower probabilities suggest the need for additional tests. The anthropometry-specific mid-size male and small-size female mean human risk curves along with plus and minus 95% confidence intervals from survival analysis and associated IRV data can be used as a first step in studies aimed at advancing occupant safety in automotive and other environments.     

水环境中不同形态氮对甲芬那酸光降解影响机制的研究

研究了紫外光照射下水环境中不同形态的无机氮(NO-3、NO-2和NH+4)对甲芬那酸(MEF)光解的影响.NO-3与NO-2均促进MEF的光解,NH+4对MEF的光解基本无影响;在NO-3、NO-2存在下添加适量异丙醇,显著抑制MEF的降解,实验表明NO-3、NO-2在光照下产生了·OH并参与对MEF的氧化降解.同时模拟研究了水体处于不同p E值下,水中存在的不同形态的无机氮对MEF光解的复合影响,其对MEF光解促进作用不是简单的叠加关系,增大p E值,MEF的光解速率先增大后减小.当NO-2和NH+4共存时,对MEF的光解主要表现为NO-2的影响;当NO-2和NO-3共存时,两者对MEF的光解存在拮抗作用.     

Seeing the wood for the trees: the role of woody resources for the construction of gender specific household cultural artefacts in non-traditional communities in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

There is a growing wealth of data capturing the direct-use values of the environment and recognition of forests and wild resources as representing “the poor manȁ9s overcoat”. This focus has however resulted in an emphasis on the utilitarian values of wild resources for rural livelihoods and has for the most part overlooked their cultural values. In tangent to these developments within the field of anthropology there has been increased attention directed towards the relationship between biodiversity and human diversity over the past decade. This has resulted in the recognition of what the Declaration of Belem calls an ȁ8inextricable linkȁ9 between biological and cultural diversity. The term bio-cultural diversity has been introduced as a concept denoting this link. Consequently there is a need for more elaborate assessments of the various ways in which different groups of people find value in biodiversity. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the cultural significance of wild harvested plant resources for the maintenance of two gender specific cultural artefacts for amaXhosa people in South Africa, to assess the persistence of these practices in rapidly modernizing communities. We demonstrate the endurance of these ancient cultural artefacts in present-day peri-urban communities and suggest that they point to the need for improved understanding of the significance of bio-cultural diversity. The findings of the study should not be interpreted as illustrating stagnation in the traditional past, but rather as pointing at the need for improved understanding of the significance of bio-cultural diversity in a dynamic sense.     

天津市土壤元素背景值的地域差异及成因分析

论述了天津土壤中Cu,Pb等13种微量元素背景值在行政区，土壤类型中的差异规律，并分析了引起元素背景值地域差异的原因。     

Criteria for the evaluation of dioxins in the environment

In FRG and other countries unequivocal criteria for the limitation of dioxins (PCDD's/PCDF's) in food like vegetables and fruits are lacking. These have to be directly associated with the limitation of dioxins in the soil and the deposition of particulate matter as the two main pathways for plant contamination. Based on recent investigations in the vicinity of cable-waste incinerators in Northrhine-Westphalia with comparatively high contents of dioxins in garden plants and soils and other sources of dioxins, considerations are given for the establishment of the criteria urgently needed.     

草原生态价值观——保护呼伦贝尔草原生态环境的必由之路

呼伦贝尔草原是我国优质的天然牧场和重要的畜牧业生产基地,因自然植被保存较好,生物多样性丰富,区位优势显著,被誉为＂绿色净土＂和＂北国碧玉＂。然而近些年来,由于人为因素的影响,已使该草原大面积发生退化、沙化,湿地面积急剧缩减,水土流失现象不断加剧,草原的生态环境遭到严重的破坏。本文在分析呼伦贝尔草原生态环境现状的基础上,提出草原生态价值观的理念,并结合可持续发展的思想,对呼伦贝尔草原的生态环境的维护提出几点对策。