生态系统服务时空演化的非线性影响因子——以钱塘江流域为例

为深入探究不同尺度、不同类别影响因素对不同类型生态系统服务的影响程度和复杂关系,本文测定了钱塘江流域7项生态系统服务的时空变化,并通过随机森林模型识别了各单项生态系统服务不同尺度自然环境因素和社会经济因素的影响程度和相对重要性,并评估了主导影响因素的边际效应.结果表明：2010~2017年,各单项生态系统服务在时空变化上具有明显的空间分异特征;不同类型生态系统服务受不同尺度自然环境因素和社会经济因素的共同影响,但其影响程度存在明显差异,格网尺度、自然环境因素的影响相对较大,建设用地、耕地及与其直接相关的社会经济因素的变化改变和塑造着生态系统服务的演化过程;主导影响因素与各单项生态系统服务之间存在复杂的非线性关系,各影响因素指标的变化对各年份生态系统服务具有非平稳的影响,如建设用地增加初期对多项生态系统服务的影响更为复杂和剧烈.     

桨叶的组合共振理论建模与分析

目的 对直升机单片桨叶在2个激励力下的组合共振进行理论研究。方法 桨叶以固定角速度旋转,视为旋转的细长悬臂梁,受2个不同频率的简谐激励力作用。首先基于哈密顿原理推导旋转梁控制方程,考虑几何大变形和非线性惯性。其次对方程无量纲化,并采用伽辽金法对控制方程进行离散,最后使用摄动法中的L-P法(Lindstedt-Poincare method)对无量纲方程进行求解。结果 获得了组合共振产生条件,同时得到了组合共振下的稳态幅频响应和相应的时间历程图。进一步获得了超谐波/次谐波共振与组合共振同时发生的条件,并对组合共振进行了参数分析,探索了各个激励频率成分、阻尼和激振位置等对组合共振的影响。结论 当2激励力满足2Ω1±Ω2=ω0、2Ω2±Ω1=ω0或1/2(Ω1±Ω2)=ω0其中之一时,旋转梁可能发生组合共振。组合共振响应中,自由振动成分占主导,存在超谐波共振时,组合共振振幅得到进一步增强。     

基于剪切增稠液体的变阻尼隔振器动力学特性研究

目的研究一种具有变阻尼特性的剪切增稠液体(STF)隔振器。方法首先采用二氧化硅纳米颗粒和聚乙二醇200为工作介质合成剪切增稠液体,通过试验研究剪切增稠液体的流变特性。之后以剪切增稠液体为工作介质,设计一种活塞液压式减振增稠液体隔振器,建立隔振器的动力学模型,并通过数值仿真研究了该隔振器的减振性能;最后,研究剪切增稠液体隔振器隔振性能影响因素。结果当远离共振频率时,隔振器具有小阻尼特性;在共振区附近,由于剪切增稠效应,隔振器阻尼骤然增加,实现对共振峰的有效抑制。结论剪切增稠液隔振器可有效抑制共振峰,同时不会对高频隔振性能产生不利影响,有效解决了传统隔振器线性阻尼的固有缺点。     

可再生资源非线性收获的策略研究

本文运用非线性理论建立了可再生资源二次非线性收获的动力摸式。研究结果表明：为了保证可再生资源的可持缓利用、收获，必须把收获强度控制在一定的水平上，我们因此可以得到持续的最大产量。我们发现虽然对可再生资源的收获策略有线性和非线性之分，但是得到的可再生资源的最大持续收获量是相同的。因此，我们必须采用合理的可再生资源收获策略。避免可再生资源的过度利用和枯竭。我国可再生资源十分短缺，需正确处理好经济发展与可再生资源保护之问的关系，保护好我国珍贵的可再生资源对于我国的可持续发展具有重大的现实意义。     

STATISTICAL IDENTIFICATION OF STORAGE MODELS WITH APPLICATION TO STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a method for the statistical identification of storage models for daily riverflow time series, together with numerical results. The first step in the identification process is to obtain a discrete time version of a storage model using a local linearization approach. It is shown that the discrete time version thus obtained may be utilized in the identification of the original storage model. A statistical method for the identification of daily rainfall time series models used in simulation is also presented. This identification procedure employs the maximum likelihood method for point process data analysis and is illustrated by means of numerical examples.     

THRESHOLD TIME SERIES MODELING OF TWO ICELANDIC RIVERFLOW SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports our experience in building time series models which connect the flows in two Icelandic rivers with the meteorological variables of precipitation and temperature. Two rivers with different hydrological characteristics were studied. In areas where precipitation may be either in the form of rain or snow linear models are inadequate to describe the relationship between the river and the meteorological variables. The methodology of threshold models recently developed seems to be well suited for taking into account the sharp difference in the relationship according to whether it is freezing or not. The possibility of identifying an alternative threshold variable is also explored.     

环境风险预测数学模型

本文基于环境风险预测分析的基本思想,应用模糊图、灰色系统、非线性回归、随机过程和可靠性系统工程理论和方法,探讨了环境风险预测的数学模型。给出了环境风险预测的双向模糊图模型、灰色马尔夫预测模型及非线性回归模型,这些模型的应用为环境风险评价和环境风险管理提供了科学依据。     

OPTIMIZING THE RETURN FROM A JOJOBA PLANTATION UNDER SCARCE DATA CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: There is a serious shortage of yield data for Jojoba (SIMMONDSIA CHINENSIS) from mature and cultivated plantations of ten years or older. Thus, the optimal quantities of water and fertilizers that are needed annually by a Jojoba plantation to achieve maximum profits were estimated from existing plantations. A computer model (IMSL subroutine ZXMWD) was used to determine a Mitscherlich yield function. An economic profit model that incorporates the yield function was then designed to maximize the profits. According to the net present value (NPV) criterion, the maximum yearly net profit is about $7800 per ha, which is achieved during the 11th growth year. The computed cumulative NPV is approximately $21,000 per ha for the entire 15-year period. Similar profits were calculated when the model was tested to examine the NPV using different assumptions with respect to varying costs.     

ANALYSIS OF PUMPING TESTS: SIGNIFICANCE OF WELL DIAMETER,PARTIAL PENETRATION,AND NOISE1

ABSTRACT: The nonlinear least squares (NLS) method was applied to pumping and recovery aquifer test data in confined and unconfined aquifers with finite diameter and partially penetrating pumping wells, and with partially penetrating piezometers or observation wells. It was demonstrated that noiseless and moderately noisy drawdown data from observation points located less than two saturated thicknesses of the aquifer from the pumping well produced an exact or acceptable set of parameters when the diameter of the pumping well was included in the analysis. The accuracy of the estimated parameters, particularly that of specific storage, decreased with increases in the noise level in the observed drawdown data. With consideration of the well radii, the noiseless drawdown data from the pumping well in an unconfined aquifer produced good estimates of horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivities and specific yield, but the estimated specific storage was unacceptable. When noisy data from the pumping well were used, an acceptable set of parameters was not obtained. Further experiments with noisy drawdown data in an unconfined aquifer revealed that when the well diameter was included in the analysis, hydraulic conductivity, specific yield and vertical hydraulic conductivity may be estimated rather effectively from piezometers located over a range of distances from the pumping well. Estimation of specific storage became less reliable for piezometers located at distances greater than the initial saturated thickness of the aquifer. Application of the NLS to field pumping and recovery data from a confined aquifer showed that the estimated parameters from the two tests were in good agreement only when the well diameter was included in the analysis. Without consideration of well radii, the estimated values of hydraulic conductivity from the pumping and recovery tests were off by a factor of four.     

经济与环境综合约束下的青岛市产业结构调整研究

针对青岛市海洋环境污染控制急需转变产业结构的重大需求,从海洋环境容量优化配置的角度出发,通过建立多目标非线性规划模型,估算2015年青岛市居民生活、农业、工业、服务业四大污染源的化学需氧量(COD)的最大允许排放量,进而得到优化的产业结构.结果表明,相比2007年,2015年青岛全市及胶州湾、莱州湾和黄海3个污染源区的COD最大允许排放量和增加值分别增大1.4~2.3倍和2.3~16.2倍.2015年,青岛全市居民生活、农业、工业、服务业的COD最大允许排放量分别为11.6×104,20.4×104,18.4×104,17.1×104t,而且四大污染源COD最大允许排放量所占比例呈现居民生活源和农业源下降,工业源和服务业源上升的变化趋势.在优化的最大允许排放量比例下,第一、二、三产业的增加值比例由“二三一”型转变为“三二一”型;同时,重污染的居民生活源和农业源的COD排放强度减小,全市及三个污染源区的环境基尼系数都降至“0.4”警戒线以下.说明经过模型优化,可在满足环境约束的同时,获得经济的增长,并且产业结构和排污结构均趋于合理化,结果可为青岛市产业结构调整提供借鉴.