洪泛湖泊水位-流量关系的非线性特征分析

湖泊的水位-流量关系是湖泊水文特性的重要表征。该关系与湖盆形态、湖泊与周围水系的水力联系等因素有关。鄱阳湖是长江中游的大型通江湖泊,洪泛特征显著。本文以鄱阳湖为例,研究洪泛湖泊入湖流量-湖泊水位关系及非线性特征。基于1960~2010年实测湖泊日水位和流域日径流数据,采用交叉小波和小波相干方法分析多时间尺度上水位对入湖流量的响应关系。结果表明,鄱阳湖入湖流量-湖泊水位关系存在3个特征阶段:阶段1中,入湖流量与湖泊水位相位差从0°过渡到45°~90°,水位上升初期与流量同步上升,后期水位对流量的响应产生迟滞效应,滞后时间为2~9d;阶段2中,入湖流量与湖泊水位相位差在90°左右波动,入湖流量率先下降,湖泊水位却保持缓慢上升;阶段3中,入湖流量与湖泊水位的相位变化与阶段1相反,从45°~90°过渡到0°,湖泊水位与入湖流量下降逐渐变为同步。本文提出鄱阳湖入湖流量-湖泊水位关系的3个阶段并分析其产生的主要原因,概化其水文特征,对通江洪泛湖泊的水文特征有新的认识,为下一步湖泊水文过程的刻画与模拟提供重要理论基础。     

液压振动台时域建模与仿真

基于Matlab/Simulink建立了液压振动台系统时域仿真模型,模型包括信号给定、油泵、溢流阀、蓄能器、伺服阀、控制器、液压缸、位移测量等模块。针对大流量动圈伺服阀,按物理规律和常见因素建模,特别考虑了瞬间油液回流情况。仿真算例结果表明,仿真获得的振动位移、速度、加速度响应波形及其他相关波形与实际振动台波形有良好的相似性。建模时考虑了尽可能多的因素,仿真获得了真实的波形特征,可为振动台系统设计提供较好参考。     

斜坡滑动失稳演化的非线性机制与过程研究进展

文章对非线性动力学系统(NDS)理论在斜坡稳定性(岩石平面滑动斜坡和圆弧滑动土坡)和滑坡预报方面的研究进展作了评述,内容包括:滑面介质本构方程、失稳判据、水的作用机制、蠕变三阶段的理论解释、滑坡物理预报模型、预报指标与混沌模型的建立等,最后指出了进一步研究的方向与课题。     

基于影响因子分析的滑坡位移预测模型研究

将滑坡的影响因索引入到滑坡的位移预测模型中．从滑坡的位移动态变化特征和响应组成组分研究入手,将滑坡的位移分解为趋势项、周期项、脉动项和随机项．针对每一项进行研究,分别选取合适的影响因子变量和函数关系来模拟,并将各项耦合在一起得到位移的初步预测模型。通过对监测数据进行非线性多元统计回归分析,得到位移的最终预测模型。以长江三峡库区的新滩滑坡为实例,通过验证研究,发现将滑坡的影响因子引入滑坡的预测预报模型中的思路是有效可行的,而且可以明显地改善预测预报的时间尺度。     

Statistical aspects of inhalation toxicokinetics

The statistical analysis of dynamic processes is a useful tool to learn how environmental and ecological systems work and how they respond to disturbances. In the context of human risk assessment of potentially harmful chemicals, many complex dynamic processes in terms of kinetics have to be taken into account. Thorough research of direct influence of chemicals to humans depends on investigations with animalsin vivo andin vitro. However, when animals serve as models of human systems, one critical step is the extrapolation from the risk observed in the experimental animals to the risk associated with the human organism. To extrapolate the observed risk in this case, the detailed knowledge of the relevant kinetic processes as well as their differences between species is fundamental. On the other hand experimental tools for these processes are quite restrictive. Based on simple experimental designs a statistical method is proposed for characterizing such kinetic processes using the well-known compartmental analysis tool and non-linear regression. The methodology is then exemplified by non-invasive toxicokinetic inhalation experiments with rats.     

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF LINEAR AND NONLINEAR TIME SERIES MODELS FOR WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: Surface water quality data are routinely collected in river basins by state or federal agencies. The observed quality of river water generally reflects the overall quality of the ecosystem of the river basin. Advanced statistical methods are often needed to extract valuable information from the vast amount of data for developing management strategies. Among the measured water quality constituents, total phosphorus is most often the limiting nutrient in freshwater aquatic systems. Relatively low concentrations of phosphorus in surface waters may create eutrophication problems. Phosphorus is a non-conservative constituent. Its time series generally exhibits nonlinear behavior. Linear models are shown to be inadequate. This paper presents a nonlinear state-dependent model for the phosphorous data collected at DeSoto, Kansas. The nonlinear model gives significant reductions in error variance and forecasting error as compared to the best linear autoregressive model identified.     

The Impact of Asynchronicity on Event‐Flow Estimation in Basin‐Scale Hydrologic Model Calibration1

Abstract: The calibration of basin‐scale hydrologic models consists of adjusting parameters such that simulated values closely match observed values. However, due to inevitable inaccuracies in models and model inputs, simulated response hydrographs for multiyear calibrations will not be perfectly synchronized with observed response hydrographs at the daily time step. An analytically derived formula suggests that when timing errors are significant, traditional calibration approaches may generally underestimate the total event‐flow volume. An event‐adaptive time series is developed and incorporated into the Nash‐Sutcliffe Efficiency objective function to diagnose the potential impact of event‐flow synchronization errors. Test sites are the 50 km² Subwatershed I of the Little River Experimental Watershed (LREWswI) in southeastern Georgia, and the 610 km² Little Washita River Experimental Watershed (LWREW) in southwestern Oklahoma, with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool used as the hydrologic model. Results suggest that simulated surface runoff generation is 55% less for LREWswI when the daily time series is used compared with when the event‐adaptive technique is used. Event‐flow generation may also be underestimated for LWREW, but to a lesser extent than it may be for LREWswI, due to a larger portion of the event flow being lateral flow.     

Valuing biodiversity: reality or mirage?

The objective of this paper was to consider the social value ofbiological diversity and explore if this value could be expressedin terms of a unidimensional metric in money. Economics distinguishes between use-values and non-use-values, which are critically evaluated for valuing biodiversity. It is shown that these utility-based valuations have severe limitations as they treat species in isolation from their ecological contexts. In contrast, ecosystem ecology regards ecosystems as an integratednon-linear and nonconvex system in which ecosystem functions canbe understood as a four-component cycle; exploitation, accumulation of biomass, creative destruction and renewal. Withinsuch a cycle, ecosystems can be seen to have two properties: stability and resilience. A good proxy for resilience is the probability of extinction of species, and social value of biodiversity can be expressed as a partial ordering with thisprobability as an index. This approach is consistent with decision theory, of which social choice is an important component, pioneered by Arrow.     

城市化发展过程的非线性模拟

模拟城市化发展过程方法提取城市化发展中的人口和经济两个主要因子。根据其相互制约的关系。运用非线性理论构筑城市化发展的非线性模型。并采用定性和定量相结合的方法。进行数值模拟，并构建这一模型。解释城市化发展过程中的部分现象。这一模型是理想状态下实现的。无法取得现实中准确的数值，仍需加以修正才能更精确的模拟城市化发展的现实过程。     

大展弦比机翼几何非线性颤振风洞试验研究

目的研究大展弦比机翼在飞行过程中,由于大变形造成几何非线性效应带来的几何非线性颤振问题。方法针对几何非线性颤振问题,设计相应的风洞试验模型,并完成不同变形下的颤振风洞试验,对机翼不同变形下的试验结果进行比较,摸清其几何非线性颤振特性。结果在几何非线性的影响下,机翼的颤振速度随着变形的增大而下降,并且发散模态及颤振频率都发生改变,大变形下的颤振速压下降到小变形时的71.7%。结论在研究大柔性、大展弦比机翼的气动弹性特性时,必须考虑几何非线性效应的影响,否则其颤振特性结论会存在较大的误差。