基于水质水量的城镇污水处理厂工艺运行稳定性研究

采用四川省2座位于不同排水服务区域的城镇污水处理厂的样本数据,统计分析了日处理水量,COD、TN、TP浓度及负荷和C/N、C/P等统计量的累积频率分布规律,并分析了各统计量的分布特征对工艺运行稳定性的影响。结果表明,污水处理厂A进水污染物负荷的累积频率分布范围较大,其采用的周期循环活性污泥(CASS)工艺基本能适应进水水质的随机变化,但因存在碳源随机性不足情况,可能导致其脱氮稳定性降低;污水处理厂B进水污染物负荷的累积频率分布范围较小,虽然其采用的厌氧—缺氧—好氧(A2/O)工艺的调控能力较低,但也基本能适应其服务区域内进水水质的随机变化;2座污水处理厂的日处理水量累积频率分布与污染物浓度及负荷的累积频率分布之间均存在显著的差异,日处理水量的累积频率分布比较集中,而污染物浓度及负荷的累积频率分布的离散范围较大,这也潜在威胁到工艺运行的稳定性。总体来看,2座污水处理厂的处理工艺选择恰当,均能较好适应其服务区域的进水水质和水量的要求。     

含热熔孔洞缺陷的埋地聚乙烯管道应力分析及寿命预测

为了研究聚乙烯（PE）管道热熔孔洞缺陷与寿命之间的关系,基于Ansys软件对埋地状态下的含有热熔孔洞缺陷的PE管道进行应力分析,得到了含热熔孔洞缺陷的PE管道在不同内压下的最大Mises应力、环向应力和径向应力的变化数据;依据应力分析数据,使用Matlab编写程序,根据Suleiman双曲本构模型对PE管道进行了寿命预测。研究结果表明:含有热熔孔洞缺陷的PE管道,其最大应力随管道内压的增大而增大,寿命随着管道内压和缺陷体积的增大而减少,含缺陷管道寿命和内压关系可使用双对数函数来进行描述;使用应力分析和寿命预测相结合的方法,可以得到不同缺陷的PE管道寿命-内压关系式。     

Probability distributions and statistical inference for axial data

Observations on axes which lack information on the direction of propagation are referred to as axial data. Such data are often encountered in enviromental sciences, e.g. observations on propagations of cracks or on faults in mining walls. Even though such observations are recorded as angles, circular probability models are inappropriate for such data since the constraint that observations lie only in [0, π) needs to be enforced. Probability models for such axial data are argued here to have a general structure stemming from that of wrapping a circular distribution on a semi-circle. In particular, we consider the most popular circular model, the von Mises or circular normal distribution, and derive the corresponding axial normal distribution. Certain properties of this distribution are established. Maximum likelihood estimation of its parameters are shown to be surprisingly, in contrast to trigonometric moment estimation, numerically quite appealing. Finally we illustrate our results by several real life axial data sets. Received: September 2004/ Revised: December 2004     

Conservation Benefits of Temperate Marine Protected Areas: Variation among Fish Species

Abstract:  Marine protected areas, and other fishery management systems that impart partial or total protection from fishing, are increasingly advocated as an essential management tool to ensure the sustainable use of marine resources. Beneficial effects for fish species are well documented for tropical and reef systems, but the effects of marine protected areas remain largely untested in temperate waters. We compared trends in sport-fishing catches of nine fish species in an area influenced by a large (500-km²) towed-fishing-gear restriction zone and in adjacent areas under conventional fishery management controls. Over the period 1973–2002 the mean reported weight of above-average-sized (trophy) fish of species with early age at maturity and limited home range was greatest within the area influenced by the fishing-gear restriction zone. The reported weight of trophy fish of species that mature early also declined less and more slowly over time within the area influenced by the fishing-gear restriction zone. Importantly, the mean reported weight of trophy fish of species that mature late and those that undertake extensive spatial movements declined at the same rate in all areas. Hence these species are likely to require protected areas >500 km² for effective protection. Our results also indicated that fish species with a localized distribution or high site fidelity may require additional protection from sport fishing to prevent declines in the number or size of fish within the local population.     

天津地区表层土中饱和烃的组成与分布特征

为揭示天津地区不同环境功能区表层土壤中饱和烃污染特征及其来源,分析了该地区几个具代表性的环境功能区表层土(0～25cm)中饱和烃化合物的组成和分布特征,重点讨论了正构烷烃和甾、萜烷烃类化合物的组成、分布及环境意义,比较了不同层次(亚层)(0～5cm,5～10cm,10～15cm,15～20cm,20～25cm)中这些化合物及相关的地球化学参数的变化规律。结果表明,不同采样点以及同一采样点的不同亚层之间正构烷烃的组成特征存在不同程度的差别,而甾、萜烷烃类化合物组成与分布特征均较为接近。正构烷烃以及甾、萜类地球化学参数综合分析揭示,不同采样点之间正构烷烃的来源多样,中低分子量的正构烷烃主要来源于石油等化石燃料,高分子量正构烷烃主要来源于高等植物蜡的分解产物,但甾、萜烷烃类化合物的来源是一致的,且主要来源于石油烃污染。不同采样点表层土中饱和烃的来源及污染程度均存在一定的差别,市区、油田附近、经济开发区以及近郊区受石油源影响较重,北部山区污染较轻,且主要来源于高等植物的降解。除个别采样点外,同一采样点不同亚层之间饱和烃的组成特征基本一致,表明污染源是一致的,主要来源由表层污染物往下迁移所致。     

Bayesian analysis under ordered functions of parameters

Ordered parameter problems arise in a wide variety of real world situations and are dealt with extensively in the literature. Traditional frequentist methods for dealing with these problems are rather complicated theoretically, especially when sample sizes are small. Bayesian methods are not widely used because high dimensional numerical integration is often required. However, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods provide alternatives to such numerical integration and also deal with ordered parameter problems in a straightforward manner. Little is known about the situation where functions of parameters are ordered. Such problems may seem to be of little practical concern initially, but one can readily see their importance in situations where ordering is placed on the means and variances of several normal or Gamma populations. For the Gamma distribution we will present real examples where we will analyze monthly precipitation data from San Francisco, California and Oakland Mills, Iowa. For the San Francisco data we will simultaneously order both monthly precipitation means and variances. For the Iowa data we will place ordering on seasonal average while still estimating monthly means. Our results show that we would obtain sharper, more accurate inference when order restrictions are employed.     

浅丘河道生态需水量计算方法对比研究——以鄂北地区水河为例

适宜的生态需水量是保障河道生态系统健康的重要因素,合理地计算生态需水量对河道生态系统评估具有现实意义。以鄂北地区典型浅丘河道——水河为例,基于Qp法(不同频率最枯月平均值法)、频率曲线法、最小月平均流量法、Tennant法及生物习性法5种方法的生态流量计算结果,探讨了各方法计算结果的合理性与适用性。结果表明:由于上下游河道水文条件差异性,上游断面采用生物习性法能较好地拟合河道水文节律变化和水质波动;同理,下游断面采用频率曲线法更加匹配下游河道水文、水质情况。因此,在河道上、下游断面分别采用生物习性法、频率曲线法计算得到适宜生态需水量为0.21 m^3/s、2.02 m^3/s。     

唐山地震中人员伤亡情况的分析及若干启示

唐山大地震对人的伤害是立体的,人员伤亡的主要原因是房屋建筑的倒塌．唐山市区被废墟埋压者中有约84％的人活了下来．唐山地震中人员伤亡情况的分析,对如何减少地震伤亡以及有效开展救灾活动,提供了有益经验。     

丝栗栲种群生命过程及谱分析

以种群生命表及生存分析理论为基础，编制丝栗栲种群静态生命表，绘制存活曲线，死亡率曲线，亏损度曲线，死亡密度函数曲线。积累死亡函数曲线和危险率函数曲线，分析种群生命过程。结果表明，丝栗栲有2个死亡高峰，存活曲线趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型。并应用谱分析方法研究丝栗栲种群动态，结果表明，在丝栗栲种群自然更新过程中存在着明显的周期性。     

Deriving freshwater quality criteria of sulphocyanic sodium for the protection of aquatic life in China

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