The Changing Nature of Conflict and Famine Vulnerability: The Case of Livestock Raiding in Turkana District, Kenya

The context of famine in Turkana has changed in recent years as the role played by livestock raiding in contributing to famine has increased. External responses to famine in Turkana have largely been drought driven, for example, food assistance and livestock restocking programmes, which have failed to meet the real needs of herders. The role of armed conflict in the form of raiding has been overlooked as a common feature of societies facing famine and food insecurity.The traditional livelihood-enhancing functions of livestock raiding are contrasted with the more predatory forms common today. The direct impact of raiding on livelihood security can be devastating, while the threat of raids and measures taken to cope with this uncertainty undermine herders' livelihood strategies. Self-imposed restrictions on mobility negatively affect the vegetation of both grazed and ungrazed pastures and restrict the available survival strategies. Predatory raiding leads to a collapse in the moral economy. Some implications of this for relief and development policy are considered, including approaches to conflict resolution.     

大庆龙凤湿地自然保护区的价值分析

大庆龙凤湿地自然保护区处于松嫩平原腹地,为典型的芦苇沼泽湿地.龙凤湿地是未被破坏的、完整的原始湿地生态系统,它保持了生物的自然性、多样性、典型性与稀有性,具有极高的保护价值.龙凤湿地位于城区内,生态脆弱性明显,应加强保护.     

江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长的协整性与因果关系分析

江苏省近年来随着社会经济的发展,耕地面积急剧减少,土地利用变化和经济增长二者关系更为明显和完整,具有极好的典型性和代表性。论文利用近20年来耕地面积、经济增长与城市化水平之间的长序列统计资料,对江苏省1981～2004年间的耕地面积与经济增长及城市化水平的协整性和因果关系进行了研究。研究表明:耕地面积、GDP与城市化水平均是不平稳的时间序列,直接对其进行回归分析是不严谨的;江苏省耕地面积变化与经济增长之间不具有长期的协整性;江苏省耕地面积与GDP、城市化水平之间只存在单向的因果关系。通过研究,认为目前的土地利用方式极不合理。因此,降低耕地减少速度,提高土地利用效率是非常紧迫的战略问题。     

Mark-recapture estimators for dual frame population size of prominent nesting structures: the effect of uncertain detection probability

The combined mark-recapture and line transect sampling methodology proposed by Alpizar-Jara and Pollock [Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 3(4), 311–327, 1996; In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods Symposium. G.W. Garner, S.C. Amstrup, J.L. Laake, B.F.J. Manly, L.L. McDonald, and D.C. Robertson (Eds.), A.A. Balkema, Rotterdam, Netherlands, pp. 99–114, 1999] is used to illustrate the estimation of population size for populations with prominent nesting structures (i.e., bald eagle nests). In the context of a bald eagle population, the number of nests in a list frame corresponds to a pre-marked sample of nests, and an area frame corresponds to a set of transect strips that could be regularly monitored. Unlike previous methods based on dual frame methodology using the screening estimator [Haines and Pollock (Journal of Environmental and Ecological Statistics, 5, 245–256, 1998a; Survey Methodology, 24(1), 79–88, 1998b)], we no longer need to assume that the area frame is complete (i.e., all the nests in the sampled sites do not need to be seen). One may use line transect sampling to estimate the probability of detection in a sampled area. Combining information from list and area frames provides more efficient estimators than those obtained by using data from only one frame. We derive an estimator for detection probability and generalize the screening estimator. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of the Chapman modification of the Lincoln–Petersen estimator to the screening estimator. Simulation results show that although the Chapman estimator is generally less precise than the screening estimator, the latter can be severely biased in presence of uncertain detection. The screening estimator outperforms the Chapman estimator in terms of mean squared error when detection probability is near 1 wheareas the Chapman estimator outperforms the screening estimator when detection probability is lower than a certain threshold value depending on particular scenarios.     

Landscape planning and ecology construction of wetland comprehensive protected area system in the Sanjiang Plain

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上海北郊大气挥发性有机物(VOCs)变化特征及来源解析

2019年1月1日到10月31日期间在上海北部郊区,采用在线气相色谱仪对58种VOCs定量检测,分析了大气VOCs组成、季节变化特征和日变化规律,并利用最大增量反应活性(MIR)估算了VOCs的臭氧生成潜势(OFP),应用因子分析法对VOCs来源进行了解析。结果表明,上海大气总VOCs体积浓度为25.79×10-9,其中烷烃占比63.2%,烯烃占比11.6%,芳香烃占比19.8%,炔烃占比5.4%。总VOCs体积浓度呈现夏季高,秋季低的季节变化特征。大气臭氧生成潜势为76.99×10-9,烷烃贡献率为22.1%,烯烃为37.5%,芳香烃为38.7%,炔烃为1.7%。VOCs特征物比值(V(TVOC)/V(NO_x)和T/B比值)法表明观测点为VOCs控制区,受周边工业区源和交通源影响。大气VOCs主要来源为机动车排放、工厂生产、燃料燃烧、工业溶剂挥发及天然源。     

渭河宝鸡市区段阴离子表面活性剂污染研究

本文采用改进的亚甲蓝分光光度法，对渭河宝鸡市区段阴离子表面活性剂进行监测分析。测定结果表明：渭河在进入宝鸡市至植物园断面时阴离子表面活性剂含量较低，日平均值为0．049mg／L，达到地面水环境质量I类标准(≤0．2mg／L)(GB3838-88．地面水环境质量标准)；在流经市区新世纪桥、渭河桥断面时，由于分别有清姜河和金陵河两个支流的汇入，污染越来越严重．在这两个断面阴离子表面活性剂含量日平均值分别为0．34mg／L和0．54mg／L；在即将流出宝鸡市的斗鸡断面阴离子表面活性剂含量日平均值为0．424mg／L，已远远超过地面水环境质量V类标准(≤0．3mg／L)(GB3838-88，地面水环境质量标准)。从监测结果看：双休日阴离子表面活性剂含量普遍高于工作日；清姜河、金陵河污染严重，这两条支流的汇入对渭河水质影响巨大，要治理好渭河，须先治理好清姜河和金陵河这两条支流。     

西安地区土壤CO2 释放量和释放规律

根据碱溶液吸收法,对西安地区不同植被条件下土壤CO2释放量进行了昼夜观测,观测资料显示,西安地区各月份土壤CO2释放量在一昼夜内具有明显的变化,从当日上午到次日上午,CO2释放量表现出由低变高再变低的规律,土壤CO2释放量变化与温度变化具有相同的特征,但释放量的变化具有滞后性,相对于温度的变化滞后4－6h左右,温度是决定土壤CO2释放量昼夜变化规律的主要因素,它的升高和降低分别造成了土壤CO2和放量的增加和减少,不同植被条件下,土壤CO2释放量不同,林地释放量大于草地,草地释放量大于裸地,夜间12h释放量大于白天12h释放量。     

关于建立生态建设示范区生态环境质量综合评价体系的初步思考

文章介绍了我国生态示范区的建设情况以及生态环境质量评价的概念、方法及应用,指出了现有生态示范区生态环境质量评价体系的不足,立足于土壤、水、气、生物等系统环境,提出了江苏省生态建设示范区生态环境质量综合评价指标体系的初步框架.     

Combined effect of US/PFS on the black liquor of making paper

The reed pulping black liquor is used as a sample. Researches of (1) combined effect of ultrasound(US)/polyferric sulphate(PFS)/hydrogen peroxide(H2O2); (2) effects of the horn tip areas; (3) effect of dose of PFS were carried. Extrapolation of these experiments indicated treatment results are possibly related to complex chemical compositions in the reed pulping black liquor.