论科技风险与减灾

本文提出了科技风险的新概念,分析了科技风险的特征、破坏性、成因等,提出了科技风险与科技事故的减灾对策。     

区域化变量理论在历史洪涝灾害空间格局重建中的应用──以长江流域1736-1911年洪涝灾害为例

通过构造一个例子,简介了区域化变量理论的基本原理、计算过程及其在洪涝灾害空间格局重建中的优点。依据区域化变量理论,以长江流域1736～1911年洪涝灾害为实例,重建了长江流域历史时期洪涝灾害的基本空间格局．     

Spatial Pattern of Ecosystem Function and Ecosystem Conservation

The spatial pattern of ecosystem function can affect ecosystem conservation. Ecosystem functions are often heterogeneous spatially due to physical and biological factors. We can influence ecosystem functions by changing the spatial patterns of the physical and biological elements of an ecosystem and regulating their combinations. The variation–position effect highlights a phenomenon resulting from the spatial pattern of ecosystem function. The effect shows that the identical variation of a factor may produce different effects on the overall situation when this variation occurs in a different spatial position. In a watershed of the Yangtze River, water retention is a primary ecosystem function. The variation–position effect for water retention capacity occurs in the watershed because of the spatial heterogeneity in vegetation, soil, and slope. The change of vegetation that occurs in a complex can affect the overall situation of water retention, and the effect can be different due to the change occurring in the position holding different vegetation-soil-slope complex. To improve the ecosystem in the watershed and to meet the social needs for the ecosystem function of water retention, a strategy called ecosystem function and spatial pattern-based forest extension was proposed to conserve forests. The implementation of the strategy enables the watershed to attain the maximum effective increase in water retention capacity.     

阜康市生态旅游规划研究

生态旅游规划是生态示范区规划的重要组成部分。本文以天池风景区规划为例阐述生态旅游规划应突破以风景区为主单一的旅游景观格局,应根据景观生态学原理、旅游地理学和旅游经济学理论,按照景观格局的梯度性变化为依据,以增长旅游线路、丰富景区类型、提高旅游收入为内容,以保护景区资源、开发景区资源为目标,开展基于发展“大旅游”思想的以沈域为单元的全面战略性规划,为实现阜康产业结构调整、增强区域经济实力提供依据。     

Fuzzy multiple-criteria decision-making approach for industrial green engineering

This paper describes a fuzzy hierarchical analytic approach to determine the weighting of subjective judgments. In addition, it presents a nonadditive fuzzy integral technique to evaluate a green engineering industry case as a fuzzy multicriteria decision-making (FMCDM) problem. When the investment strategies are evaluated from various aspects, such as economic effectiveness, technical feasibility, and environmental regulation, it can be regarded as an FMCDM problem. Since stakeholders cannot clearly estimate each considered criterion in terms of numerical values for the anticipated alternatives/strategies, fuzziness is considered to be applicable. Consequently, this paper uses triangular fuzzy numbers to establish weights and anticipated achievement values. By ranking fuzzy weights and fuzzy synthetic utility values, we can determine the relative importance of criteria and decide the best strategies. This paper applies what is called a λ fuzzy measure and nonadditive fuzzy integral technique to evaluate the synthetic performance of green engineering strategies for aquatic products processors in Taiwan. In addition, we demonstrate that the nonadditive fuzzy integral is an effective evaluation and appears to be appropriate, especially when the criteria are not independent.     

Biotopic Variation and Phenogeography of Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas)

The phenetic structure of Dreissena polymorpha populations in different water bodies is considered. The phenotypes of shell pattern and sculpture are identified and described using a scheme based on elementary characters, or pattern elements. It is shown that the frequencies of phenes in mollusks from different biotopes of the cooling system of two thermal power plants differ significantly. The data on species phenogeography are reviewed.     

耦合装药中扩容半径的理论计算

根据扩容机理,建立了扩容爆破的物理模型,并且根据动量守恒定律得到了不同条件下最终炮孔挤压区域的半径公式.利用这些公式结合炸药和岩石的特性,以及装药参数得到了扩容结果.理论计算结果与试验数据相吻合.这些结果将有助于爆破扩容理论的完善以及该技术发展和推广应用.     

ISOLATING THE RANDOM RAMSTORM COMPONENT FROM BASIN RESPONSE FACTORS IN RAINFALLRUNOFF DATA1

ABSTRACT: Gaged watersheds can provide information as to geomorphic, and geologic influence on the spatial variability of rainfall-runoff relationships. However, correlations between raingages distributed throughout the basin, and stream discharge are influenced by both storm patterns and drainage basin characteristics. Factor analysis has been applied to rainfall-runoff relationship to isolate the storm pattern from a basin response factor. Comparing two periods of time separated by eight years reveals relative stability in the rainfall attenuation (basin response) factor, while storm patterns for the two periods of record are quite disparate.     

酒精在常见可燃地面材料燃烧痕迹特征规律研究

易燃液体燃烧痕迹识别对助燃剂放火火灾调查至关重要。选用丙纶地毯和PVC地板革作为纤维和塑料地板的代表,以工业酒精作为易挥发助燃剂的代表,研究酒精用量、灭火方式等对燃烧痕迹形成及痕迹稳定性的影响。通过与未加载酒精的痕迹对比,发现丙纶地毯因热稳定性较差,燃烧后往往能形成烧坑或烧洞,其燃烧轮廓以典型的灰化形式存在,加载酒精的部位熔融严重,与地面紧紧粘连在一起;PVC地板革因为表面光滑,酒精在其表面不断流淌,燃烧后会留下清晰的轮廓,类似于细线状的印痕,而地板革本身基本不会燃烧。燃烧熄灭的方式也会对其炭化程度、燃烧图痕、残余形状产生影响。     

京津冀地区面向人居环境之水安全格局初探

采用文献法对近年京津冀水资源、水环境、水污染、水灾害、水管理等水安全情势进行相关数据分析,从总体上显示出水危机问题和京津冀地区快速城市化发展的关联性.结果表明:1)京津冀城市群必须向节水型社会模式转型;2)建立区域及城市间的协调机制,才能有效克服流域与区域等级的水问题;3)实现京津冀地区水安全格局的治理行动计划网络,提出保护恢复体系、净化循环体系、限制节约体系、调度再造体系、蓄滞防洪减灾体系五大体系.