苏打盐碱地养鱼稻田水体微生物区系研究

对松嫩平原苏打盐碱地养鱼稻田水体微生物数量及种类组成进行了初步研究。结果表明,养鱼稻田异养细菌数量为0.280万～30.716万mL-1,高于未养鱼稻田(P<0.05),其平均值的时间分布为水稻生长末期>中期>初期;养鱼稻田和未养鱼稻田放线菌和霉菌数量均较少。养鱼稻田大肠菌群数量为403.6～17934.2L-1,显著高于未养鱼稻田(P<0.01),其平均值的时间分布为水稻生长中期>初期>末期。异养细菌数量与鱼产量、总施肥量和有机肥施用量均呈极显著相关,与化肥施用量相关不显著;大肠菌群数量与鱼产量相关显著,与总施肥量相关不显著,但与有机肥施用量相关极显著。养鱼稻田中检测出10个科(属)异养细菌,优势菌为弧菌属(Vib rion)、气单胞菌属(Aeromonas)和芽孢杆菌属(Bacillus)。     

基于潜在生命损失的危险化学品仓储区规划选址和安全布局方法研究

在现有基于风险的土地使用安全规划方法的基础上,通过引入潜在生命损失这一综合风险评价指标,建立了基于移动危险源潜在生命损失的危险化学品仓储区规划选址模型和基于固定危险源潜在生命损失的仓储区安全布局优化模型。在此基础上,提出了危险化学品仓储区规划选址和安全布局优化方法,并通过案例分析验证了该方法的适用性和可行性。采用该规划选址和安全布局优化方法可提高区域土地使用安全规划的效率,为进行城市重大危险源的规划选址和安全布局提供了新的思路。     

五店市历史传统街区建筑群防火间距研究

针对执行现行消防技术标准与保留传统建筑风貌的矛盾,以晋江五店市传统街区为对象,采用数值模拟方法研究不同楼间距对相邻建筑所受火灾辐射热流的影响规律,对街区内的典型建筑防火间距进行重新评估,使其既满足历史街区风貌保护要求,又能达到预防火灾的目的。     

区域风险评价方法研究

基于定量风险评价的基本原理,提出一种区域风险评价方法。主要针对有多个重大危险源存在的区域,在对单个危险源进行风险评价的基础上,应用叠加原理得到描述该区域整体风险状况的定量评价结果。同时考虑了消防部门和医疗机构在事故应急救援中的积极作用,并将其量化为区域风险的补偿系数。通过实例验证了该方法的可行性,展示了该方法的应用效果。区域风险评价方法不仅能够反映区域风险的分布状况,而且对区域重大危险源的规划和布局具有较好的决策支持作用。     

地铁系统反恐应急预案编制指南研究

地铁系统已成为恐怖分子袭击的重要目标,为提高政府应对地铁系统突发恐怖袭击事件的应对和紧急处置能力,通过对我国各市地铁系统实际情况的调查和研究,根据对地铁典型恐怖袭击案例的剖析,详细阐述地铁系统反恐怖应急预案编制指南的思路、特点和重要作用,重点探讨对指南中的突发恐怖事件的分级分类和应急处置等方法,通过编制该指南的研究,为城市地铁系统反恐应急预案的编制提供指导性建议。     

新时代我国土壤环境规划思路初探

在我国生态文明建设大背景下,土壤环境污染问题正受到广泛关注。如何通过规划手段加强土壤污染防控和管治,已成为学术界和管理部门的共同关注点。本文结合《土壤污染防治行动计划》和《土壤污染防治法》,对新时代土壤环境规划的基本概念和编制框架进行了探索,通过对土壤环境规划思路、基本内容、编制步骤等问题的讨论,为新时代土壤环境规划的深入开展提出建议,包括:加快健全土壤环境规划的规范和标准,为规划提供技术支撑;加强土壤环境规划的作用和地位,促进土壤环境规划与水、大气环境规划的融合;进一步完善土壤环境法律法规,构建土壤环境规划保障体系等。     

移动基站远场区功率密度分布和规划控制距离

为掌握畸变条件下移动通讯基站周围功率密度分布,合理确定其规划控制距离,在杭州市主城区选取具有不同网络类型和载波数的2057个移动基站,实测话务高峰期基站周围射频场功率密度.结果表明,畸变条件下GSM基站远场区功率密度S∝r-1.83 (非畸变条件下S∝r-2),决定系数R2=0.80;距基站天线20m内,约85.91%测点功率密度实测值小于非畸变条件下依据天线标称功率和增益计算的理论值.,频数统计结果表明,距天线1~15m范围内,运营商A所属基站S10值(表示有10%的测点功率密度高于该值)比运营商B高10.00%;距天线1~30m内,双网和三网共站基站S10值分别比单网基站高50.31%和57.10%.移动通讯基站规划控制距离以15m为宜,15m外测点功率密度值超过8μW/cm2的基站只占所测基站的0.11%.     

爆炸超压场景下危化品社会风险对允许规划人口密度的影响分析*

为研究危化品重大危险源基于社会风险基准的规划管控影响,采用我国标准规定的定量风险评价方法,TNT当量炸药简化方法,针对最大TNT当量炸药、事故发生总累计频率、人口密度分布控制参数等不同工况条件,对比分析国土开发强度的允许人口密度受社会风险约束影响的变化规律。研究结果表明:人口密度指数分布控制参数Nk与Nb的允许取值随最大TNT当量炸药和事故发生总累计频率降低而提高;确定工况下,允许总人口规模受最大TNT当量炸药影响很小;在最大TNT当量炸药大于100 t或事故发生总累计频率小于1×10-8次/a时可按最大事故场景进行规划控制分析。     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Vocal Activity as a Low Cost and Scalable Index of Seabird Colony Size

Although wildlife conservation actions have increased globally in number and complexity, the lack of scalable, cost‐effective monitoring methods limits adaptive management and the evaluation of conservation efficacy. Automated sensors and computer‐aided analyses provide a scalable and increasingly cost‐effective tool for conservation monitoring. A key assumption of automated acoustic monitoring of birds is that measures of acoustic activity at colony sites are correlated with the relative abundance of nesting birds. We tested this assumption for nesting Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) in San Francisco Bay for 2 breeding seasons. Sensors recorded ambient sound at 7 colonies that had 15–111 nests in 2009 and 2010. Colonies were spaced at least 250 m apart and ranged from 36 to 2,571 m². We used spectrogram cross‐correlation to automate the detection of tern calls from recordings. We calculated mean seasonal call rate and compared it with mean active nest count at each colony. Acoustic activity explained 71% of the variation in nest abundance between breeding sites and 88% of the change in colony size between years. These results validate a primary assumption of acoustic indices; that is, for terns, acoustic activity is correlated to relative abundance, a fundamental step toward designing rigorous and scalable acoustic monitoring programs to measure the effectiveness of conservation actions for colonial birds and other acoustically active wildlife. La Actividad Vocal como un Índice Escalable y de Bajo Costo del Tamaño de Colonia de las Aves Marinas