生态文明视角下的国土空间底线管控：“双评价”与国土空间规划监测评估预警

生态文明新时代下的空间规划体系对国土空间底线管控提出了明确要求,“双评价”与国土空间规划监测评估预警是底线思维的体现。研究“双评价”与国土空间规划监测评估预警在国土空间底线管控中的作用和地位,通过国土空间规划“一张图”实施监督信息系统的建设,对二者的联系及其相互作用进行体现,构建二者的联动方式,服务于国土空间底线管控及治理的全过程。“双评价”与国土空间规划监测评估预警共同组成底线管控的两个阶段,前者是开展底线管控的基础,后者是底线管控的路径和手段,两者皆是生态文明新时代下国土空间规划底线管控的重要工具,需以国土空间规划“一张图”实施监督信息系统为基础加强两者的有机结合。     

新时代国土整治与生态修复转型思考

针对全球变化影响下的国土空间和生态系统,生态文明建设和国土空间规划是中国在新时代的积极响应,国土整治与生态修复的转型和提升成为必然要求。在介绍国土整治与生态修复概念内涵的基础上,指出中国国土空间生态环境问题的复杂性和生态文明建设的新理念要求决定了国土整治与生态修复的转型。从工作理念、理论基础、技术体系和制度建设等方面,分析了当前国土整治与生态修复工作中存在的不足,主要包括整体综合理念滞后、理论基础体系欠缺、技术支撑相对薄弱、体制机制不尽完善等方面。针对这些不足,提出了新时代国土整治与生态修复转型的路径和策略,主要策略包括强化系统思维、提升理论体系、加强技术支撑、完善机制建设等内容,以期为国土整治与生态修复推进美丽中国建设提供科学依据。     

魅力国土空间:重塑区域特色的国土空间规划策略

国土空间规划的提出使我国的规划体系进入到新的发展时期与发展语境,国土空间开发方向已从生产空间为主导转向生态、生活、生产空间相协调。如何将基于“三生空间”概念的传统国土空间认知提升到丰富文化脉络、生态特征、生活基础的复合魅力国土空间,如何对不同区域的发展进行侧重,杜绝对单一发展模式的盲目跟风,是国家和地方面临的共同重大主题。结合国土空间在历史与现实不同时期的发展表征和形成原因,在回溯空间认知过程、反思空间规划实践的基础上,厘清了魅力国土空间的概念与内涵,提出国土空间规划体系下魅力国土空间的关注焦点,从区域发展平衡、管控弹性调整、空间要素流动、发展目标优化等方面阐述了魅力国土空间的作用与功能。     

国土空间规划新时代旅游规划的定位与转型

我国已经迈入以国土空间规划引领“多规合一”的空间治理新时代,对各专项规划的管控约束性更严、技术性和衔接性要求更高。为此,本文重新审视了旅游规划的性质和地位,并基于产业专项性和空间融合性特征,将旅游规划分为战略规划、协调规划、发展规划和开发规划。以旅游发展规划为示例,提出了六大转型:规划理念从无限思维向边界思维、融合理念和空间思维转变,编制思路从甲方意志向市场导向转变,规划内容从大而全向专而精转变,技术路线从概念逻辑向空间逻辑转变,规划方式从封闭向开放转变,规划技术从缺乏技术到技术融合转变以期推动旅游规划衔接和融入新时代国土空间规划体系,进一步引领中国旅游产业的转型升级和高质量发展。     

京津冀地区钢铁行业协同减排成本-效益分析

京津冀地区是我国钢铁行业布局最集中的区域,也是大气污染治理的重点区域之一.分析京津冀地区钢铁行业各类治污手段中长期减排的成本-效益,对于选择最经济有效的减排路径、加快推动该地区大气环境质量达标意义重大.基于能源环境、环境分布、人群健康效益评价等模块构建多模型耦合方法,以2015年为基准年,以每5 a为时间节点,设计了京津冀地区钢铁行业规模-结构、规模-技术、规模-末端治理、综合减排4种协同减排情景,计算各情景下2015—2030年京津冀地区钢铁行业主要污染物(SO₂、NO_x、PM₁₀、PM_2.5、CO₂)的减排成本与效益,比较获取治污减排的最优路径方案.结果表明:①基于减排成本计算,规模-末端治理减排情景成本最低,分别为规模-结构、规模-技术减排情景投入的15.18%、23.94%;综合减排情景下治污减排潜力最大,但综合成本最高.②基于环境税效益评价方法、人群健康效益评价方法计算显示,人群健康效益评价方法计算的减排效益高于环境税效益评价方法,表明污染减排的潜在人群健康效益更高;基于两种减排效益方法,4种协同减排情景中综合减排效益分别为10.78×108、76.14×108元,高于规模-结构、规模-技术、规模-末端治理减排情景效益.③基于环境税效益评价方法,4种协同减排情景的效益-成本比表现为规模-末端治理减排情景(0.46) >规模-技术减排情景(0.24) >综合减排情景(0.15) >规模-结构减排情景(0.10);基于人群健康效益评价方法4种协同减排情景的效益-成本比依次为规模-末端治理减排情景(8.35) >综合减排情景(1.07) >规模-结构减排情景(0.57) >规模-技术减排情景(0.65),表明规模-末端治理减排情景的减排路径最优.研究显示,京津冀地区钢铁行业应基于环境质量底线目标要求,综合考虑减排潜力、减排成本与收益,以规模-末端治理为主要途径,选取协同减排的最优路径.      

基于空间适宜性评价和人口承载力的贵溪市中心城区城市开发边界的划定

城市开发边界的划定能够合理引导城市空间的有序发展,控制其无序蔓延。论文以典型的资源型城市贵溪市为研究区,从空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模以及城市总体规划和土地利用总体规划（简称“两规”）衔接等方面探索有效的城市开发边界划定方法。空间适宜性评价综合考虑自然、空间可达性和生态条件,运用聚类分析法确定区域内不宜作为开发建设的生态底线区域和适宜建设开发区域的高低等级,以此确定城市开发边界的发展方向。通过灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测研究区2020年人口总量,并基于土地资源和水资源承载力验证当地所能容纳的最大人口总量,同时确定城市规模和划定城市开发边界。以空间适宜性评价、人口承载力、城市规模预测、两规衔接和空间形态控制等方法倒逼缩减建设用地,从而划定城市发展的刚性和弹性增长边界。     

Cumulative effect assessment in Canada: a regional framework for aquatic ecosystems

Sustainable development of the aquatic environment depends upon routine and defensible cumulative effects assessment (CEA). CEA is the process of predicting the consequences of development relative to an assessment of existing environmental quality. Theoretically, it provides an on-going mechanism to evaluate if levels of development exceed the environment's assimilative capacity; i.e., its ability to sustain itself. In practice, the link between CEA and sustainable development has not been realized because CEA concepts and methods have developed along two dichotomous tracks. One track views CEA as an extension of the environmental assessment (EA) process for project developments. Under this track, stressor-based (S-B) methods have been developed where the emphasis is on local, project-related stressors, their link with aquatic indicators, and the potential for environmental effects through stressor-indicator interactions. S-B methods focus on the proposed development and prediction of project-related effects. They lack a mechanism to quantify existing aquatic quality especially at scales broader than an isolated development. This limitation results in the prediction of potential effects relative to a poorly defined baseline state. The other track views CEA as a broader, regional assessment tool where effects-based (E-B) methods specialize in quantification of existing aquatic effects over broad spatial scales. However, the predictive capabilities of E-B methods are limited because they are retrospective, i.e., the stressor causing the effect is identified after the effect has been measured. When used in isolation, S-B and E-B methods do not address CEA in the context necessary for sustainable development. However, if the strengths of these approaches were integrated into a holistic framework for CEA, an operational mechanism would exist to better monitor and assess sustainable development of our aquatic resources. This paper reviews the existing conceptual basis of CEA in Canada including existing methodologies, limitations and strengths. A conceptual framework for integrating project-based and regional-based CEA is presented.     

Linking Land Cover and Water Quality in New York City’S Water Supply Watersheds

The Catskill/Delaware reservoirs supply 90% of New York City’s drinking water. The City has implemented a series of watershed protection measures, including land acquisition, aimed at preserving water quality in the Catskill/Delaware watersheds. The objective of this study was to examine how relationships between landscape and surface water measurements change between years. Thirty-two drainage areas delineated from surface water sample points (total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria concentrations) were used in step-wise regression analyses to test landscape and surface-water quality relationships. Two measurements of land use, percent agriculture and percent urban development, were positively related to water quality and consistently present in all regression models. Together these two land uses explained 25 to 75% of the regression model variation. However, the contribution of agriculture to water quality condition showed a decreasing trend with time as overall agricultural land cover decreased. Results from this study demonstrate that relationships between land cover and surface water concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, and fecal coliform bacteria counts over a large area can be evaluated using a relatively simple geographic information system method. Land managers may find this method useful for targeting resources in relation to a particular water quality concern, focusing best management efforts, and maximizing benefits to water quality with minimal costs.The United States Environmental Protection Agency through its Office of Research and Development funded and managed the research described here. It has been subjected to Agency’s administrative review and approved for publication as an EPA document.     

A Spatial Model to Estimate Habitat Fragmentation and Its Consequences on Long-Term Persistence of Animal Populations

The increasing use of the landscape by humans has led to important diminutions of natural surfaces. The remaining patches of wild habitat are small and isolated from each other among a matrix of inhospitable land-uses. This habitat fragmentation, by disabling population movements and stopping their spread to new habitats, is a major threat to the survival of numerous plant and animal species. We developed a general model, adaptable for specific species, capable of identifying suitable habitat patches within fragmented landscapes and investigating the capacity of populations to move between these patches. This approach combines GIS analysis of a landscape, with spatial dynamic modeling. Suitable habitat is identified using a threshold area to perimeter ratio. Potential movement pathways of species between habitat patches are modeled using a cellular automaton. Habitat connectivity is estimated by overlaying habitat patches with movement pathways. The maximum potential population is calculated within and between connected habitat patches and potential risk of inbreeding within meta-populations is considered. The model was tested on a sample map and applied to scenario maps of predicted land-use change in the Peoria Tri-county region (IL). It (1) showed area of natural area alone was insufficient to estimate the consequences on animal populations; (2) underscored the necessity to use approaches investigating the effect of land-use change spatially through the landscape and the importance of considering species-specific life history characteristics; and (3) highlighted the model's potential utility as an indicator of species likelihood to be affected negatively by land-use scenarios and therefore requiring detailed investigation.     

Economic and Spatial Impacts of an Existing Reserve Network on Future Augmentation

An optimization model for land reservation was developed that explicitly selects parcels in the most compact or contiguous manner possible while meeting habitat requirements and a budget limitation. The model was used to compare the effects of an existing reserve network on future parcel spatial locations and total cost. Using habitat and land value data from Josephine County, Oregon, it was found that a system of existing reserves created by various policies and overseen by different agencies can decrease future reserve compactness and contiguity, and increase total cost. This work suggests that coordinated planning can result in more efficient conservation efforts for less cost.