三峡库区区域经济形势及其发展战略探讨

长江三峡工程是举世瞩目的大型水利水电工程,库区的经济发展问题与相关生态环境问题同样引人关注。三峡库区经济的发展不仅有利于整个长江上游地区的全面发展,而且关系到库区百万移民的生计和社会稳定的大局。基于区域经济理论,运用SWOT方法对三峡库区经济发展的现状进行了分析评价。通过库区经济发展优势、劣势、机遇和挑战因素的客观分析,结果发现,特色生态农业、沿江旅游、物流业将成为库区产业的优先发展方向,与民生相关的移民安稳致富、城乡统筹发展等政策则成为库区经济战略的重要选择。旨在进一步整合库区资源、优化产业结构、提高经济增长质量、提升整体经济实力,为库区制定具针对性的区域经济发展战略提供有益参考。
     

中国人口集疏格局与形成机制研究

人口集聚和疏散是人口空间分布格局最直观和最集中的体现,基于人口集聚度的中国人口集疏的空间格局和形成机制的研究,有助于准确把握中国人口空间分布的基本脉络,具有重要的学术价值和实践意义。研究采用了人口集聚度分级评价的方法,依据人口集聚度的不同,将各个地区划分为不同等级的人口集聚区,并对其分别讨论。在此基础上,结合中国人口分布格局、自然条件的空间分布格局、人居环境自然适宜性评价结果以及经济发展格局和城市化格局,对中国的人口集疏的空间格局进行了归纳,并进一步对相应的形成机制进行了探讨,得出了我国人口分布的空间不平衡日益加剧,并呈现沿海、沿江、沿线集聚的态势的基本结论,并对我国人口分布集疏格局的形成进行了探讨,提出了自然因素奠定我国人口分布的基本格局,而经济发展不平衡与城市化成为人口集聚的动力的观点。     

棱鮻寄生小钩鲻鱼虫的种群生态学

棱鮻(Liza carinatus)样品于2000年12月～2001年10月取自广东湛江.按常规方法从鱼鳃上挑取小钩鲻鱼虫(Ligophorus hamulosus),进行压片、计数.结果显示:随着宿主体长的增长,小钩鲻鱼虫种群的平均密度、平均感染强度呈上升趋势;从12月到次年4月,其平均密度和平均感染强度上升,随后呈下降趋势,8月最低.10月略有回升;小钩鲻鱼虫种群在不同大小的宿主上和在不同季节均呈聚集分布.     

Understanding the Lessons and Limitations of Conservation and Development

Abstract: The lack of concrete instances in which conservation and development have been successfully merged has strengthened arguments for strict exclusionist conservation policies. Research has focused more on social cooperation and conflict of different management regimes and less on how these factors actually affect the natural environments they seek to conserve. Consequently, it is still unknown which strategies yield better conservation outcomes? We conducted a meta‐analysis of 116 published case studies on common resource management regimes from Africa, south and central America, and southern and Southeast Asia. Using ranked sociodemographic, political, and ecological data, we analyzed the effect of land tenure, population size, social heterogeneity, as well as internally devised resource‐management rules and regulations (institutions) on conservation outcome. Although land tenure, population size, and social heterogeneity did not significantly affect conservation outcome, institutions were positively associated with better conservation outcomes. There was also a significant interaction effect between population size and institutions, which implies complex relationships between population size and conservation outcome. Our results suggest that communities managing a common resource can play a significant role in conservation and that institutions lead to management regimes with lower environmental impacts.     

α1-Microglobulin levels and correlation with cadmium and other metals in urine of non-smoking women among general populations in Japan

The present study was initiated to examine urinary α₁-microglobulin (α₁-MG-U) levels among non-smoking women in the general population in Japan. A previously established database on spot urine samples from adult woman volunteers in 10 non-polluted areas all over Japan was re-examined. The data examined were on α₁-MG-U, cadmium, calcium, magnesium and zinc levels in urine (Cd-U, Ca-U, Mg-U and Zn-U, respectively), urinary creatinine (CR or cr), urine specific gravity (SG or sg), smoking habits and age. Thus, 8975 never-smoking women were selected for statistical analyses. The grand geometric mean (GM) for α₁-MG-U among the population was 2.1?mg/L or 2.5?mg/g?cr, depending on the correction for urine density. It was 1.1?µg/L or 1.3?µg/g?cr for GM Cd-U. The inter-area difference in α₁-MG-U was <1.5?mg/g?cr or <0.7?mg/L; the area with the highest or lowest GM Cd-U was not always highest or lowest in GM α₁-MG-U. The correlation coefficient (0.53) between log?Cd-U and log?α₁-MG-U (both without urine density correction) became substantially smaller when the analyte levels were corrected for CR (0.25) or SG (0.26). In multiple regression analysis, the power of influence of the five independent variables (log?Cd-U, Ca-U, Mg-U, Zn-U and age) in combination was small (R ²?≦?0.13). In contrast, logistic regression analysis suggested that α₁-MG-U might be elevated as a function of an increase in Cd-U, depending on the cut-off values. Discussion was made on dose (Cd-U_cr) and response (α₁-MG-U_cr) relationship based on information available in literatures to show that the increment in α₁-MG-U_cr per Cd-U_cr was much greater when Cd-U_cr was large, e.g., in excess of 10?µg/g?cr.     

Combining Measures of Dispersal to Identify Conservation Strategies in Fragmented Landscapes

Abstract: Understanding the way in which habitat fragmentation disrupts animal dispersal is key to identifying effective and efficient conservation strategies. To differentiate the potential effectiveness of 2 frequently used strategies for increasing the connectivity of populations in fragmented landscapes—corridors and stepping stones—we combined 3 complimentary methods: behavioral studies at habitat edges, mark‐recapture, and genetic analyses. Each of these methods addresses different steps in the dispersal process that a single intensive study could not address. We applied the 3 methods to the case study of Atrytonopsis new species 1, a rare butterfly endemic to a partially urbanized stretch of barrier islands in North Carolina (U.S.A.). Results of behavioral analyses showed the butterfly flew into urban and forested areas, but not over open beach; mark‐recapture showed that the butterfly dispersed successfully through short stretches of urban areas (<500 m); and genetic studies showed that longer stretches of forest (>5 km) were a dispersal barrier, but shorter stretches of urban areas (≤5 km) were not. Although results from all 3 methods indicated natural features in the landscape, not urbanization, were barriers to dispersal, when we combined the results we could determine where barriers might arise: forests restricted dispersal for the butterfly only when there were long stretches with no habitat. Therefore, urban areas have the potential to become a dispersal barrier if their extent increases, a finding that may have gone unnoticed if we had used a single approach. Protection of stepping stones should be sufficient to maintain connectivity for Atrytonopsis new species 1 at current levels of urbanization. Our research highlights how the use of complementary approaches for studying animal dispersal in fragmented landscapes can help identify conservation strategies.     

Temporal Analysis of Genetic Structure to Assess Population Dynamics of Reintroduced Swift Foxes

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long‐term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small‐population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos     

Paradigms for parasite conservation

Parasitic species, which depend directly on host species for their survival, represent a major regulatory force in ecosystems and a significant component of Earth's biodiversity. Yet the negative impacts of parasites observed at the host level have motivated a conservation paradigm of eradication, moving us farther from attainment of taxonomically unbiased conservation goals. Despite a growing body of literature highlighting the importance of parasite‐inclusive conservation, most parasite species remain understudied, underfunded, and underappreciated. We argue the protection of parasitic biodiversity requires a paradigm shift in the perception and valuation of their role as consumer species, similar to that of apex predators in the mid‐20th century. Beyond recognizing parasites as vital trophic regulators, existing tools available to conservation practitioners should explicitly account for the unique threats facing dependent species. We built upon concepts from epidemiology and economics (e.g., host‐density threshold and cost‐benefit analysis) to devise novel metrics of margin of error and minimum investment for parasite conservation. We define margin of error as the risk of accidental host extinction from misestimating equilibrium population sizes and predicted oscillations, while minimum investment represents the cost associated with conserving the additional hosts required to maintain viable parasite populations. This framework will aid in the identification of readily conserved parasites that present minimal health risks. To establish parasite conservation, we propose an extension of population viability analysis for host–parasite assemblages to assess extinction risk. In the direst cases, ex situ breeding programs for parasites should be evaluated to maximize success without undermining host protection. Though parasitic species pose a considerable conservation challenge, adaptations to conservation tools will help protect parasite biodiversity in the face of an uncertain environmental future.     

绵竹县社会经济发展战略的系统动力学研究

摆脱传统思维方式的束缚,采用科学的、系统的、程序化的方法制定我国县级经济和社会发展战略,是我国现代化建设提出的一项艰巨任务。本文旨在通过介绍“绵竹县经济社会发展总体规划(系统工程应用)研究”的核心部分——绵竹县社会经济系统动态仿真模型设计与发展战略的仿真实验择优,阐述系统工程的原理和运用数学模型方法对县级社会经济系统进行总体设计、预演和优化的一点体会。     

IDENTIFICATION OF AQUIFER DISPERSIVITIES: METHODS OF ANALYSIS AND PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents a method for estimating aquifer dispersivities in solute transport models. Sensitivity equations are derived for the calculation of sensitivity coefficients. A modified Gauss-Newton algorithm is used to perform the least-squares minimization. A statistical procedure is outlined to assess reliability of the estimated parameters. The solute transport model is solved by the upstream weighted, multiple cell balance method which combines the concepts of local mass balance and finite element approximations. A one-dimensional solute transport problem in a vertical column system is first used to illustrate the inverse technique. A second example considers the parameter identification problem for three-dimensional solute transport with a unidirectional steady and uniform flow field. The third example solves the parameter identification problem in a three-dimensional, stream-aquifer, solute transport system with steady state flow. Numerical experiments are conducted to study data requirements for parameter identification.