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251.
Jiajun Liu Long Wang Yun Zhu Che-Jen Lin Carey Jang Shuxiao Wang Jia Xing Bin Yu Hui Xu Yuzhou Pan 《Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering》2019,13(1):2
252.
Species, habitats, and ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors, fueling a rapidly expanding research program to understand the cumulative impacts of these environmental modifications. Since the 1970s, a growing set of methods has been developed through two parallel, sometimes connected, streams of research within the applied and academic realms to assess cumulative effects. Past reviews of cumulative effects assessment (CEA) methods focused on approaches used by practitioners. Academic research has developed several distinct and novel approaches to conducting CEA. Understanding the suite of methods that exist will help practitioners and academics better address various ecological foci (physiological responses, population impacts, ecosystem impacts) and ecological complexities (synergistic effects, impacts across space and time). We reviewed 6 categories of methods (experimental, meta-analysis, single-species modeling, mapping, qualitative modeling, and multispecies modeling) and examined the ability of those methods to address different levels of complexity. We focused on research gaps and emerging priorities. We found that no single method assessed impacts across the 4 ecological foci and 6 ecological complexities considered. We propose that methods can be used in combination to improve understanding such that multimodel inference can provide a suite of comparable outputs, mapping methods can help prioritize localized models or experimental gaps, and future experiments can be paired from the outset with models they will inform. 相似文献
253.
Identification of policies for a sustainable legal trade in rhinoceros horn based on population projection and socioeconomic models 下载免费PDF全文
Enrico Di Minin Jussi Laitila Federico Montesino‐Pouzols Nigel Leader‐Williams Rob Slotow Peter S. Goodman Anthony J. Conway Atte Moilanen 《Conservation biology》2015,29(2):545-555
Between 1990 and 2007, 15 southern white (Ceratotherium simum simum) and black (Diceros bicornis) rhinoceroses on average were killed illegally every year in South Africa. Since 2007 illegal killing of southern white rhinoceros for their horn has escalated to >950 individuals/year in 2013. We conducted an ecological–economic analysis to determine whether a legal trade in southern white rhinoceros horn could facilitate rhinoceros protection. Generalized linear models were used to examine the socioeconomic drivers of poaching, based on data collected from 1990 to 2013, and to project the total number of rhinoceroses likely to be illegally killed from 2014 to 2023. Rhinoceros population dynamics were then modeled under 8 different policy scenarios that could be implemented to control poaching. We also estimated the economic costs and benefits of each scenario under enhanced enforcement only and a legal trade in rhinoceros horn and used a decision support framework to rank the scenarios with the objective of maintaining the rhinoceros population above its current size while generating profit for local stakeholders. The southern white rhinoceros population was predicted to go extinct in the wild <20 years under present management. The optimal scenario to maintain the rhinoceros population above its current size was to provide a medium increase in antipoaching effort and to increase the monetary fine on conviction. Without legalizing the trade, implementing such a scenario would require covering costs equal to approximately $147,000,000/year. With a legal trade in rhinoceros horn, the conservation enterprise could potentially make a profit of $717,000,000/year. We believe the 35‐year‐old ban on rhinoceros horn products should not be lifted unless the money generated from trade is reinvested in improved protection of the rhinoceros population. Because current protection efforts seem to be failing, it is time to evaluate, discuss, and test alternatives to the present policy. 相似文献
254.
Steven R. Beissinger Jason G. Bragg David J. Coates J. Gerard B. Oostermeijer Paul Sunnucks Nathan H. Schumaker Meredith V. Trotter Andrew G. Young 《Conservation biology》2015,29(3):755-764
We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence. 相似文献
255.
The genetic diversity of populations, which contributes greatly to their adaptive potential, is negatively affected by anthropogenic habitat fragmentation and destruction. However, continental‐scale losses of genetic diversity also resulted from the population expansions that followed the end of the last glaciation, an element that is rarely considered in a conservation context. We addressed this issue in a meta‐analysis in which we compared the spatial patterns of vulnerability of 18 widespread European amphibians in light of phylogeographic histories (glacial refugia and postglacial routes) and anthropogenic disturbances. Conservation statuses significantly worsened with distances from refugia, particularly in the context of industrial agriculture; human population density also had a negative effect. These findings suggest that features associated with the loss of genetic diversity in post‐glacial amphibian populations (such as enhanced fixation load or depressed adaptive potential) may increase their susceptibility to current threats (e.g., habitat fragmentation and pesticide use). We propose that the phylogeographic status of populations (i.e., refugial vs. post‐glacial) should be considered in conservation assessments for regional and national red lists. 相似文献
256.
Implications of genetics and current protected areas for conservation of 5 endangered primates in China 下载免费PDF全文
Christian Roos Ziming Wang ZuoFu Xiang Pingfen Zhu Boshi Wang Baoping Ren Fanglei Shi Huijuan Pan Ming Li 《Conservation biology》2015,29(6):1508-1517
Most of China's 24–28 primate species are threatened with extinction. Habitat reduction and fragmentation are perhaps the greatest threats. We used published data from a conservation genetics study of 5 endangered primates in China (Rhinopithecus roxellana, R. bieti, R. brelichi, Trachypithecus francoisi, and T. leucocephalus); distribution data on these species; and the distribution, area, and location of protected areas to inform conservation strategies for these primates. All 5 species were separated into subpopulations with unique genetic components. Gene flow appeared to be strongly impeded by agricultural land, meadows used for grazing, highways, and humans dwellings. Most species declined severely or diverged concurrently as human population and crop land cover increased. Nature reserves were not evenly distributed across subpopulations with unique genetic backgrounds. Certain small subpopulations were severely fragmented and had higher extinction risk than others. Primate mobility is limited and their genetic structure is strong and susceptible to substantial loss of diversity due to local extinction. Thus, to maximize preservation of genetic diversity in all these primate species, our results suggest protection is required for all sub‐populations. Key priorities for their conservation include maintaining R. roxellana in Shennongjia national reserve, subpopulations S4 and S5 of R. bieti and of R. brelichi in Fanjingshan national reserve, subpopulation CGX of T. francoisi in central Guangxi Province, and all 3 T. leucocephalus sub‐populations in central Guangxi Province. 相似文献
257.
为有效避免地铁施工安全事故的发生,将动态元网络的分析方法应用于地铁施工安全事故致因分析,建立地铁施工安全事故网络节点体系,提出重点控制因素。以杭州地铁一号线施工安全事故为例,在充分考虑人的主观能动性后,建立以人员、行为、事件和组织为节点的节点体系,确定节点的数量及节点之间的相互关系,建立施工安全事故网络模型并进行分析,对打击效果进行对比分析,找到比较理想的打击策略,确立节点的重要度排序,研究结果表明:应重点控制有效的监督相关节点,即可有效地避免或者减少此类事故的发生。得出的结论与事故通报结果基本相符,这为避免地铁施工安全事故提供了新的研究思路。 相似文献
258.
王永明 《中国安全生产科学技术》2019,15(8):38-43
为了进一步优化我国现有应急预案体系,从应急管理实践中分析梳理出4方面问题,包括:“在指导理念上依然没有充分体现应急准备的理念”“应急预案体系在微观、中观和宏观层面依然存在结构性问题”“应急预案的内容存在‘概念性’内容较多的情况,导致操作性和针对性不强”“预案动态管理滞后,持续改进机制尚未形成”;针对现存问题,提出基于情景构建的优化策略和方法,认为“情景构建”不但可以指导编制者分析应急需求、明确应急目标、规划应急程序,有效支撑应急预案的编制,而且可以派生出“基于情景链条的预案衔接策略”“基于任务协同的预案衔接策略”“基于资源约束的预案衔接策略”,进而从微观层面上推进预案体系的优化。研究结果可以作为各级政府和企业应急预案体系构建的参考和借鉴。 相似文献
259.
260.
为了揭示出海洋纤毛虫在人工海水中及不同温度下的种群动力学,利用实验生态学方法,就4种培养液及2种(17℃和23℃)温度对海洋纤毛虫扇形游仆虫(Euplotesvannus Müller,1786)种群增长的影响进行了初步探讨.结果显示①该种纤毛虫原生动物在4种人工海水培养液中的种群增长率大小顺序为牛肉浸膏培养液>米粒培养液>酵母粉培养液>蛋白胨培养液;②种群密度大小顺序依次为米粒培养液>牛肉浸膏培养液>酵母粉培养液>蛋白胨培养液;③指数增长期及稳定期在米粒培养液中均长于牛肉浸膏培养液;④随着培养温度的升高,种群增长率增大,指数增长期及稳定期缩短;⑤温度系数(Q10)的大小顺序为蛋白胨培养液>牛肉浸膏培养液>米粒培养液>酵母粉培养液.结果表明,米粒人工海水培养液不仅适合于保种培养,而且适合于种群的扩大培养,而牛肉浸膏培养液更适合于种群的快速扩大培养,其他两种培养液则只适合于保种培养.图2表4参13 相似文献