基于系统动力学(SD)的民航可持续安全发展决策研究

为了解决民航行业保障能力与发展需求之间的矛盾所带来的安全问题,在对民航行业进行系统分析的基础上,利用系统动力学方法建立了民航可持续安全发展决策流图。通过专家访谈和文献分析法构建了3种政策场景。利用Vensim软件对模型进行了仿真,结果表明:在保障能力不变的条件下,2015年将航班审批率降低0.3,可实现行业的安全目标,但航班量在2015—2025年发展十分缓慢;在发展水平不变的条件下,2015年将保障能力提高0.3,可在2021年实现行业的安全目标;在可持续发展的策略下,在2015—2018年将航班审批率降低0.3、2018年之后将航班审批率提高0.4,在2015年将保障能力提高0.2,可实现我国民航行业的可持续安全发展。     

Predictors of specialist avifaunal decline in coastal marshes

Coastal marshes are one of the world's most productive ecosystems. Consequently, they have been heavily used by humans for centuries, resulting in ecosystem loss. Direct human modifications such as road crossings and ditches and climatic stressors such as sea‐level rise and extreme storm events have the potential to further degrade the quantity and quality of marsh along coastlines. We used an 18‐year marsh‐bird database to generate population trends for 5 avian species (Rallus crepitans, Tringa semipalmata semipalmata, Ammodramus nelsonii subvirgatus, Ammodramus caudacutus, and Ammodramus maritimus) that breed almost exclusively in tidal marshes, and are potentially vulnerable to marsh degradation and loss as a result of anthropogenic change. We generated community and species trends across 3 spatial scales and explored possible drivers of the changes we observed, including marsh ditching, tidal restriction through road crossings, local rates of sea‐level rise, and potential for extreme flooding events. The specialist community showed negative trends in tidally restricted marshes (?2.4% annually from 1998 to 2012) but was stable in unrestricted marshes across the same period. At the species level, we found negative population trends in 3 of the 5 specialist species, ranging from ?4.2% to 9.0% annually. We suggest that tidal restriction may accelerate degradation of tidal marsh resilience to sea‐level rise by limiting sediment supply necessary for marsh accretion, resulting in specialist habitat loss in tidally restricted marshes. Based on our findings, we predict a collapse of the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrows (A. caudacutus) within the next 50 years and suggest that immediate conservation action is needed to prevent extinction of this species. We also suggest mitigation actions to restore sediment supply to coastal marshes to help sustain this ecosystem into the future.     

Complementarity of No‐Take Marine Reserves and Individual Transferable Catch Quotas for Managing the Line Fishery of the Great Barrier Reef

Abstract: Changes in the management of the fin fish fishery of the Great Barrier Reef motivated us to investigate the combined effects on economic returns and fish biomass of no‐take areas and regulated total allowable catch allocated in the form of individual transferable quotas (such quotas apportion the total allowable catch as fishing rights and permits the buying and selling of these rights among fishers). We built a spatially explicit biological and economic model of the fishery to analyze the trade‐offs between maintaining given levels of fish biomass and the net financial returns from fishing under different management regimes. Results of the scenarios we modeled suggested that a decrease in total allowable catch at high levels of harvest either increased net returns or lowered them only slightly, but increased biomass by up to 10% for a wide range of reserve sizes and an increase in the reserve area from none to 16% did not greatly change net returns at any catch level. Thus, catch shares and no‐take reserves can be complementary and when these methods are used jointly they promote lower total allowable catches when harvest is relatively high and encourage larger no‐take areas when they are small.     

地区发展差异与湖北省可持续发展战略

湖北省的经济发展水平与全国其它地区存在着较大的差异，从全国范围看，湖北省多年一直处在中等偏下的水平，而在长江流域，近年湖北省一下游省市的差距在迅速扩大；在中心地区各省中，湖北则相对领先。     

Effects of Metsulfuron-Methyl on the Microbial Population and Enzyme Activities in Wheat Rhizosphere Soil

The effects of metsulfuron-methyl, a sulfonylurea herbicide, on the wheat soil microorganisms were evaluated by the methods of microbial inoculation culture, and the activities of three enzymes were measured using the colorimetric method. The tolerant microorganisms that can resist 500 μ g·g^?1 metsulfuron-methyl in the counting culture medium were studied specially. Metsulfuron-methyl distinctly inhibited the common aerobic heterotriphic bacteria, but the effects on common fungi and common actinomycete were not evident. In the meantime, the number of tolerant fungi increased greatly in the rhizosphere after the application of metsulfuron-methyl in contrast to the significant decrease of the amount of tolerant actinomycete. It indicates that fungi might turn into the dominant microbial type and actinomycete is the sensitive factor in the soil polluted by sulfonylurea residues. The population of aromatic compounds–decomposing bacteria, aerobic azotobacter, and nitrite bacteria all increased in the earlier period, but the aerobic azotobacter decreased rapidly in number 30 days later, and the amount of nitrite bacteria also showed a temporary decrease with time 15 days later. However, the denitrifying bacteria just began to increase significantly after the crops had grown for 50 days. The amount of sulfur-oxidizing bacteria gradually decreased with the growth of crops, and so were the sulfate-reducing bacteria after metsulfuron-methyl application. To all types of microorganisms, there were more microbes in rhizosphere samples than those in nonrhizosphere except aerobic azotobacter. It means the growth of wheat root system can stimulate the growth of most microorganisms. The activities of hydrogen peroxidase and polyphenol oxidase in soil samples after metsulfuron-methyl application were notably lower than those in the control, and the difference of the activities between the samples of rhizosphere and nonrhizosphere was evident. On the contrary, the activity of dehydrogenase was not inhibited by the application of metsulfuron-methyl, and the rhizosphere effect was not obvious either.     

Indigenous Knowledge of Natural Resource Management and Population Control for Dong Ethnic Group in Guizhou Province

Dong ethnic people have rich indigenous knowledge in terms of their daily life and production, which plays an important role in the sustainable development of their village. This paper aims to understand traditional knowledge of Dong ethnic people in resource management and population control, including traditional resource management, traditional medicinal knowledge and village regulations in Zhanli Village in Southeast Guizhou Province. The research methods include key informant interview, group discussio...     

Estimation of the CDF of a finite population in the presence of acalibration sample

We compare the performance of a number of estimators of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the following scenario: imperfect measurements are taken on an initial sample from afinite population and perfect measurements are obtained on a small calibration subset of the initial sample. The estimators we considered include two naive estimators using perfect and imperfect measurements; the ratio, difference and regression estimators for a two-phasesample; a minimum MSE estimator; Stefanski and Bay's SIMEX estimator (1996); and two proposed estimators. The proposed estimators take the form of a weighted average of perfect and imperfect measurements. They are constructed by minimizing variance among the class of weighted averages subject to an unbiasedness constraint. They differ in the manner of estimating the weight parameters. The first one uses direct sample estimates. The second one tunes the unknown parameters to an underlying normal distribution. We compare the root mean square error (RMSE) of the proposed estimator against other potential competitors through computer simulations. Our simulations show that our second estimator has the smallest RMSE among thenine compared and that the reduction in RMSE is substantial when the calibration sample is small and the error is medium or large.     

Modulation of predator-prey interactions by the Allee effect

An Allee effect arising from density-dependent mating success can have significant impacts at the ecosystem level when considered in the context of predator-prey interactions. These are captured by a mathematical model for the exchange of biomass between a structured predator population (continuous weight distribution) and a resource. Because the predator’s mating success affects the amount of resources required for the production of offsprings and their future growth into mature organisms, it influences the flux of biomass between trophic levels. Under simple assumptions, the equations can be reduced to an equivalent unstructured predator-prey model in which the Allee effect modulates the predation rate: the mating probability multiplies the rate of predator growth as well as the rate of resource depletion. Implications of the Allee effect for the bifurcation structure and equilibrium densities are examined. The model is compared to a modified version in which the Allee effect instead modulates the assimilation efficiency, hence the mating probability does not appear in the dynamical equation for the resource density. Both models exhibit qualitatively similar dynamics. However, compared to the model in which the Allee effect modulates predation, the model in which the Allee effect modulates assimilation efficiency predicts (i) unrealistically inefficient resource assimilation when predator density is low, (ii) a higher risk of catastrophic extinction resulting from a change in the parameter controlling the strength of the Allee effect, and (iii) no possibility of an increase in population size when the density dependence is enhanced.     

浙江省农村生活污水处理现状及其对策

基于浙江省67个县的农村生活污水处理设施的问卷调查结果,统计分析浙江农村生活污水处理设施现状,包括动力情况、处理工艺、执行标准、运维模式、经费来源等,并探讨分析了农村生活污水处理设施排放标准及运维管理的长效性.结果表明:目前浙江农村生活污水处理设施以中小规模(30～60 t·d-1)为主,约80％的设施采用了无动力厌氧+人工湿地处理技术,出水一般执行GB 18918-2002《城镇污水处理厂污染物排放标准》中的一级B标准,以村镇自管的运维模式为主,年均运维成本为1.3万元·座-1.从省级管理层面应加快制订符合浙江省情的农村生活污水处理设施排放标准,其指标项目数量不宜过多,指标限值可略宽于GB 18918-2002中的一级A标准;并应尽快形成针对责任主体、资金保障、第三方运维的农村生活污水处理设施长效管理机制.     

Global population collapse in a superabundant migratory bird and illegal trapping in China

Persecution and overexploitation by humans are major causes of species extinctions. Rare species, often confined to small geographic ranges, are usually at highest risk, whereas extinctions of superabundant species with very large ranges are rare. The Yellow‐breasted Bunting (Emberiza aureola) used to be one of the most abundant songbirds of the Palearctic, with a very large breeding range stretching from Scandinavia to the Russian Far East. Anecdotal information about rapid population declines across the range caused concern about unsustainable trapping along the species’ migration routes. We conducted a literature review and used long‐term monitoring data from across the species’ range to model population trend and geographical patterns of extinction. The population declined by 84.3–94.7% between 1980 and 2013, and the species’ range contracted by 5000 km. Quantitative evidence from police raids suggested rampant illegal trapping of the species along its East Asian flyway in China. A population model simulating an initial harvest level of 2% of the population, and an annual increase of 0.2% during the monitoring period produced a population trajectory that matched the observed decline. We suggest that trapping strongly contributed to the decline because the consumption of Yellow‐breasted Bunting and other songbirds has increased as a result of economic growth and prosperity in East Asia. The magnitude and speed of the decline is unprecedented among birds with a comparable range size, with the exception of the Passenger Pigeon (Ectopistes migratorius), which went extinct in 1914 due to industrial‐scale hunting. Our results demonstrate the urgent need for an improved monitoring of common and widespread species’ populations, and consumption levels throughout East Asia.