我国鸟类监测的现状、问题与对策

鸟类是开展生物多样性监测的重要指示类群.对鸟类的长期、系统监测工作在欧美已经有百余年历史,且野鸟多样性指数已经成为欧美一些国家开展生物多样性监测工作的官方指标.通过对国内鸟类监测现状的分析,结合监测对象、指标、抽样策略和监测方法等监测工作中应重点关注的几个方面,提出了我国鸟类监测存在的问题,并结合国情提出了下一步开展鸟类监测工作的对策与建议.建议我国有关部门尽快制定鸟类监测技术规程和标准,统一数据收集和分析平台,逐步构建政府引导,科研院所、高等院校、自然保护区、观鸟协会和志愿者等多方参与的鸟类监测网络.     

安徽琅琊山青檀种群数量动态

以种群生命表和生存分析理论为基础,采用胸径大小分级法和分段匀滑技术,编制琅琊山青檀（Pteroceltistatarinowii）种群静态生命表,绘制了死亡率曲线、消失率曲线、存活曲线和生存函数曲线并分析种群数量特征,结合种群动态量化方法和时间序列预测模型分析种群数量动态变化。结果表明：（1）琅琊山青檀种群属稳定增长型。种群径级结构大体呈倒“J”型分布,中、幼龄阶段个体数量较为丰富,老龄阶段个体数量相对较少,种群在发育过程中存在一定波动性,但种群数量变化动态指数Kp,i。和Kp,i（考虑外部干扰时）均大于0。（2）青檀种群死亡率曲线和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致,均出现2个高峰,一个出现在第Ⅱ龄级,另一个出现在第XI（或Ⅻ）龄级;存活曲线经统计检验趋于Deevey-Ⅱ型。（3）青檀种群的生存率曲线单调下降,累计死亡率曲线单调上升,生存率下降趋势表现为前期高于后期,累计死亡率则相反;生存函数曲线显示,青檀种群具有前期薄弱、中期稳定和后期衰退的特点。（4）在未来2、4、6、8和10a内,青檀种群幼龄级个体数量相对丰富,种群呈稳定增长趋势。     

Utility optimization strategy of safety management capability of coal mine - A case study of JCIA

This article describes optimization strategy of SMCCM from perspective of utility of coal miner with the method of empirical research. Four elements of SMCCM are put forward which consist of “employee safety knowledge”, “equipment safety knowledge”, “environment safety knowledge” and “rule safety knowledge”. Eight elements of utility are put forward which consist of “benefit satisfaction”, “promotion satisfaction”, “job satisfaction”, “enterprise satisfaction”, “management satisfaction”, “colleague satisfaction”, “relationship satisfaction” and “communication satisfaction”. Then hypotheses of influence path between SMCCM and utility are proposed. JCIA is chosen as the sample to carry out survey, which questionnaire is designed based on the likert six-point scale to avoid the middle tendency of the test samples. Data analysis is done from following angles: analysis of the structure and utility of test samples, variables analysis of SMCCM and utility, model analysis of interaction between SMCCM and utility. And then results are obtained from the analysis of elements of SMCCM and elements of utility. Conclusions: first, “rule safety knowledge” should be strengthened above all; second, “job satisfaction” should be paid more attention to; third, coal miner’s benefit should be concerned specially.     

太湖流域城市化水平及外来人口影响测评

太湖流域属于我国东部沿海经济较发达的地区,2000年城市化水平达到66.17%,接近全国平均水平的两倍。自改革开放以来,该地区工业化发展迅速,由以乡镇企业为主过渡到外资和民营企业的大力发展,吸引了来自全国各地的就业迁移人口,成为全国流动人口的主要集中区。同时使得外来人口成为地区社会经济发展规划不可忽视的重要因素。以第五次人口普查资料为基础分析了太湖流域外来人口来源的地域和城乡构成,计算了外来人口数量及分布情况,指出外来人口的城乡非均衡分布促成地区城镇化率的小幅上升,太湖流域各地区的上升幅度在2%左右,部分解释了隐性城镇化率的产生。在城市市区,外来人口平均占到总城市人口的18%。对于50万人口以上城市,外来人口比重与城市规模表现出良好的相关性,可用于指导城市人口规模及地区城镇化水平预测。     

南通市城镇空间结构研究

南通市城镇空间结构演变具有优越的区位条件和较好的经济基础及发展历史,但综合经济实力欠缺是造成中心城市规模偏小、城镇空间发展不平衡以及城市化水平滞后的根本原因。因而完善南通城镇空间结构的策略应该是走多元化城镇化发展道路,加快城镇建设步伐。通过户籍登记制度和农村土地流转制度改革,优先发展基础设施,优化空间产业布局和城镇空间布局,逐步形成一个层次合理、布局科学的城镇体系,为实现城乡一体化奠定基础。     

江西省耕地变化及保护策略

江西省人均耕地已触及联合国粮农组织规定的人均耕地警戒线,且近年来耕地流失的趋势还在加快。耕地减少主要集中在国家基建占地、退耕还林、退耕还塘以及灾害毁地等几个方面。近10年来,江西各地区表现出不同的耕地流失特征。人均GDP较高的地区,耕地减少率反而低。这主要是因为各地区处于不同的经济发展阶段,经济水平相对较高的传统工业城市正处于产业转型期,占用耕地较少,而相对落后的几个城市的工业正在起步,表现出占用耕地较多。利用主成分分析法,得出江西省耕地减少的四大驱动因素,分别是经济发展和人口增长、自然灾害、退耕政策以及农业技术进步。控制人口数量,实现耕地总量动态平衡,积极开垦、复垦土地,改善生态环境等是当前保护耕地的基本策 略。     

融合控制策略在污水处理曝气过程中的应用

针对污水处理过程的复杂性,提出了一种融合控制策略。探讨了基于融合的工程控制策略和控制算法。仿真实验结果表明:该工程控制算法的控制精度高,鲁棒性强,对污水处理过程的控制是可行和有效的。     

太原地区食物中的林丹残留与人群摄食暴露(Oral Intake of Lindane by Population in Taiyuan)

尽管我国有机氯农药已禁用多年,但环境和食物中仍有有机氯农药残留.以太原市为研究区域,采集了代表性的6类24种食物,测定了林丹残留量,分析了太原人群对林丹的口摄暴露风险.研究结果表明,24种食物中林丹残留量在未检出到1.5ng·g-(1湿重)范围内.残留量较高的为鱼、水果、蔬菜和肉类.多数食物残留浓度高于2005～2007年北京和沈阳类似调查的结果.与历史数据(1992、2000年)相比,食物中林丹残留浓度大幅度下降,动物类食物下降1～2个量级,蔬菜和水果降幅较小.目前各类食物中林丹残留量均低于国家和欧盟的相应标准.平均而言,各年龄段人群日均口摄暴露量也低于美国环保局的标准,但由于食物残留浓度、个体体重及膳食结构变异较大,导致个体暴露水平差别很大,各年龄段,特别是成年人中有少数人日均口摄暴露浓度超过美国环保局制定的0.3g·kg-1·d-1的允许标准.     

煤矿领导者和监管者的行为决策演化博弈分析

为完善煤矿企业内部安全监管体系,协调安全投入和监管的行为决策,对企业领导决策者和监督管理者的行为决策进行演化博弈分析.构建领导决策者和监督管理者的双群体演化博弈模型;根据博弈模型建立复制动态方程,通过雅可比矩阵对其进行局部稳定性分析并讨论系统的演化稳定策略(ESS);应用数值模拟分析验证博弈模型和结论.结果表明:安全投...     

Occupancy Patterns of Regionally Declining Grassland Sparrow Populations in a Forested Pennsylvania Landscape

Organisms can be affected by processes in the surrounding landscape outside the boundary of habitat areas and by local vegetation characteristics. There is substantial interest in understanding how these processes affect populations of grassland birds, which have experienced substantial population declines. Much of our knowledge regarding patterns of occupancy and density stem from prairie systems, whereas relatively little is known regarding how occurrence and abundance of grassland birds vary in reclaimed surface mine grasslands. Using distance sampling and single‐season occupancy models, we investigated how the occupancy probability of Grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum) and Henslow's Sparrows (A. henslowii) on 61 surface mine grasslands (1591 ha) in Pennsylvania changed from 2002 through 2011 in response to landscape, grassland, and local vegetation characteristics . A subset (n = 23; 784 ha) of those grasslands were surveyed in 2002, and we estimated changes in sparrow density and vegetation across 10 years. Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrow populations declined 72% and 49%, respectively from 2002 to 2011, whereas overall woody vegetation density increased 2.6 fold. Henslow's Sparrows avoided grasslands with perimeter–area ratios ≥0.141 km/ha and woody shrub densities ≥0.04 shrubs/m². Both species occupied grasslands ≤13 ha, but occupancy probability declined with increasing grassland perimeter–area ratio and woody shrub density. Grassland size, proximity to nearest neighboring grassland ( = 0.2 km), and surrounding landscape composition at 0.5, 1.5, and 3.0 km were not parsimonious predictors of occupancy probability for either species. Our results suggest that reclaimed surface mine grasslands, without management intervention, are ephemeral habitats for Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrows. Given the forecasted decline in surface coal production for Pennsylvania, it is likely that both species will continue to decline in our study region for the foreseeable future. Patrones de Ocupación de Poblaciones Regionalmente Declinantes de Gorriones de Pastizales en un Paisaje Boscoso de Pennsylvania