铁路环境噪声对居民冲击影响的模糊综合评价

铁路环境噪声对居民的冲击影响程度不仅与列车运行辐射噪声级有关，而且还与人口密度，及白天、夜间的人口比例等因素有关。考虑以上诸多因素，采用模糊综合评价方法进行铁路环境噪声对居民的冲击影响的综合比较评价，并通过实例验证了该方法的有效性和可靠性，为铁路环境噪声评价提供了新的方法。     

广州中心镇的城市化发展建设研究

通过对广州区域城市化的发展形势、中心镇的城市化建设研究,探讨了为实现三个发展目标,建立多层次、多元化、多体系的理论框架.     

BASE FLOW TRENDS IN URBANIZING WATERSHEDS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER BASIN1

Rapid land development is raising concern regarding the ability of urbanizing watersheds to sustain adequate base flow during periods of drought. Long term streamflow records from unregulated watersheds of the lower to middle Delaware River basin are examined to evaluate the impact of urbanization and imperviousness on base flow. Trends in annual base flow volumes, seven‐day low flows, and runoff ratios are determined for six urbanizing watersheds and four reference watersheds across three distinct physiographic regions. Hydrograph separation is used to determine annual base flow and stormflow volumes, and nonparametric trend tests are conducted on the resulting time series. Of the watersheds examined, the expected effects of declining base flow volumes and seven‐day low flows and increasing stormflows are seen in only one watershed that is approximately 20 percent impervious and has been subject to a net water export over the past 15 years. Both interbasin transfers and hydrologic mechanisms are invoked to explain these results. The results show that increases in impervious area may not result in measurable reductions in base flow at the watershed scale.     

城市化中大沥再生金属行业的“收放”决择

在城市升级大潮下,作为广佛同城化核心区的大沥镇再生金属行业发展处于"收放二难"境地:限制该行业发展势必动摇大沥有色金属产业链、影响村组收入和第三产业发展;相反,若是放任该行业发展,则会造成城市升级困难、土地空间固化,社会环境恶化、行业恶性竞争,最终发展也是陷入死胡同。因此,不能搞一刀切,现实的选择是在兼顾产业转型和城市升级原则下有条件发展、有管制提升、有目的转型。     

大渡河流域电站建设对保护鱼类的影响及对策措施研究

为弄清大渡河流域电站建设对虎嘉鱼等5种保护鱼类的影响情况,探索适宜的保护措施,在流域枯水和丰水期分别选择了电站建设上下游6个有代表性的断面采集水样,采用电感耦合等离子发射光谱法等方法测定了重金属元素等16个指标,用单因子和综合指数评价法对电站上下游水质进行了对比评价;采用实地调查的方法调查了5种保护鱼类在近10年间种群数量的变化趋势。结果表明：电站建设对水质综合影响指数在1．64—1．82之间,影响严重;5种保护鱼类种群数量近10年间急剧下降,目前已为未见或罕见。     

基于PM2.5的中国雾霾灾害风险评价

基于雾霾胁迫、人口暴露和适应能力,结合遥感数据与统计数据,对2014年中国286个地级及以上城市的雾霾灾害风险进行评价,在此基础上,识别雾霾灾害风险热点区的风险主导因子.结果表明:中国城市雾霾灾害风险整体水平不高且内部差异显著,雾霾灾害风险大体呈"东高西低、北高南低"的空间布局特征.雾霾灾害风险热点区范围涵盖96个城市,占据国土面积92.4万km~2,波及人群数量5.9亿.风险主导因子分区方面,适应能力主导区分布在汕头、揭阳、邵阳、娄底、玉林、汕尾、达州、巴中、天水、昭通、潮州和贵港等12个城市;雾霾胁迫主导区分布在郑州、上海、成都、泰州、济南、西安、武汉、鄂州、南京、扬州、天津、无锡、嘉兴、南昌、常州、芜湖、淄博、合肥、镇江、黄石、马鞍山、南通和日照等23个城市,其余61个城市则属于雾霾胁迫-适应能力综合主导区.     

苏打盐碱地养鱼稻田水体微生物区系研究

对松嫩平原苏打盐碱地养鱼稻田水体微生物数量及种类组成进行了初步研究。结果表明,养鱼稻田异养细菌数量为0.280万～30.716万mL-1,高于未养鱼稻田(P<0.05),其平均值的时间分布为水稻生长末期>中期>初期;养鱼稻田和未养鱼稻田放线菌和霉菌数量均较少。养鱼稻田大肠菌群数量为403.6～17934.2L-1,显著高于未养鱼稻田(P<0.01),其平均值的时间分布为水稻生长中期>初期>末期。异养细菌数量与鱼产量、总施肥量和有机肥施用量均呈极显著相关,与化肥施用量相关不显著;大肠菌群数量与鱼产量相关显著,与总施肥量相关不显著,但与有机肥施用量相关极显著。养鱼稻田中检测出10个科(属)异养细菌,优势菌为弧菌属(Vib rion)、气单胞菌属(Aeromonas)和芽孢杆菌属(Bacillus)。     

城镇化进程中农村劳动力转移响应机理与调控——以东部沿海地区为例

从时空过程耦合、形态与动力共轭的角度,探讨了中国东部沿海地区城镇化进程中农村劳动力转移的响应机理与调控模式。首先提出农村劳动力转移响应强度的概念,构建了响应强度模型与机理模型,揭示了城镇化进程中农村劳动力转移响应强度的类型及动力机制,分析了劳动力转移响应的地域类型及调控对策。研究表明:东部沿海地区城镇化的快速推进,对农村劳动力转移的带动作用逐渐增强,劳动力转移规模与比重不断增大,其阶段性、区域差异性特征明显;非农产业发展、地区发展差异和期望收入等是影响农村劳动力转移的主要因素;城镇化进程中农村劳动力转移响应的地域形态类型可以划分为大城市核心地域、外围承接地域、边缘发展地域和传统农业及特区地域4种。     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Vocal Activity as a Low Cost and Scalable Index of Seabird Colony Size

Although wildlife conservation actions have increased globally in number and complexity, the lack of scalable, cost‐effective monitoring methods limits adaptive management and the evaluation of conservation efficacy. Automated sensors and computer‐aided analyses provide a scalable and increasingly cost‐effective tool for conservation monitoring. A key assumption of automated acoustic monitoring of birds is that measures of acoustic activity at colony sites are correlated with the relative abundance of nesting birds. We tested this assumption for nesting Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) in San Francisco Bay for 2 breeding seasons. Sensors recorded ambient sound at 7 colonies that had 15–111 nests in 2009 and 2010. Colonies were spaced at least 250 m apart and ranged from 36 to 2,571 m². We used spectrogram cross‐correlation to automate the detection of tern calls from recordings. We calculated mean seasonal call rate and compared it with mean active nest count at each colony. Acoustic activity explained 71% of the variation in nest abundance between breeding sites and 88% of the change in colony size between years. These results validate a primary assumption of acoustic indices; that is, for terns, acoustic activity is correlated to relative abundance, a fundamental step toward designing rigorous and scalable acoustic monitoring programs to measure the effectiveness of conservation actions for colonial birds and other acoustically active wildlife. La Actividad Vocal como un Índice Escalable y de Bajo Costo del Tamaño de Colonia de las Aves Marinas