人力资本、社会资本与市民化抑制

新生代农民工问题的终结是市民化,但是目前许多新生代农民工存在市民化阻碍,这不利于我国城市化进程的推进和经济的持续健康发展。对沈阳和余姚两地区进行了案例调查,得到了两地区新生代农民工的调查数据。运用调查数据,首先采用需求可识别的biprobit模型对新生代的农民工市民化抑制程度进行了测度,并预测出新生代农民工个体的市民化抑制程度。在对新生代农民工个体的市民化抑制程度指标进行分位数回归分解的基础上,分析了人力资本和社会资本对新生代农民工市民化抑制程度的影响,以期促进新生代农民工的城市融入。研究发现:新生代农民工的社会资本水平是影响其市民化的关键因素,人力资本水平的提高只有在市民化抑制程度高于80%时才会使市民化抑制程度下降。因此,相应的政策建议为,政府应加强新生代农民工城市公共服务的享用水平;发展和健全农民工工会组织;在市民化抑制程度较高的地区应特别加强新生代农民工职业技能的培训。     

Income Growth, Urbanization, Changing Life Style and Energy Requirements in China

This paper aims to estimate the effects of changing life style and consumption demands driven by income growth and urbanization on increase of energy requirements in China, and es-timate the impacts of improvement in household consumption on mitigating energy requirements towards 2020, based on input-out-put analysis and scenarios simulation approach. The result shows that energy requirement per capita has increased by 159% for urban residents and 147% for rural residents from 1995 to 2004. Growth in household consumption driven by income growth and urbanization may induce a successive increase in energy require-ments in future. Per capita energy requirements of urban residents will increase by 240% during 2002-2015 and 330% during 2002-2020. Urbanization might lead to 0.75 billion ton of increment of energy requirements in 2020. About 45%-48% of total energy requirements in China might be a consequence of residents’ life styles and the economic activities to support consumption demands in 2020. Under low-carbon life style scenario, per capita energy requirements of urban residents may decline to 97% in 2015 and 92% in 2020 in contrast with baseline scenario. That implies that China needs to pay a great attention to developing green low-carbon life style in order to realize mitigation target towards 2020.     

大渡河流域电站建设对保护鱼类的影响及对策措施研究

为弄清大渡河流域电站建设对虎嘉鱼等5种保护鱼类的影响情况,探索适宜的保护措施,在流域枯水和丰水期分别选择了电站建设上下游6个有代表性的断面采集水样,采用电感耦合等离子发射光谱法等方法测定了重金属元素等16个指标,用单因子和综合指数评价法对电站上下游水质进行了对比评价;采用实地调查的方法调查了5种保护鱼类在近10年间种群数量的变化趋势。结果表明：电站建设对水质综合影响指数在1．64—1．82之间,影响严重;5种保护鱼类种群数量近10年间急剧下降,目前已为未见或罕见。     

人口与消费对碳排放影响的分析模型与实证

从消费压力人口视角探讨碳排放问题,有利于正确判断和把握气候变化压力的人文因素,以及人口与消费可持续发展的动力学机制.本文通过对STIRPAT模型的扩展,应用岭回归方法计量分析人口、消费及技术因素对碳排放的影响.对我国1980至2007年碳排放情况的统计实证结果表明,扩展的STIRPAT模型对中国国情有较高的解释力.居民消费水平、人口城市化率、人口规模三个因素对我国碳排放总量的变化影响明显;现阶段我国居民消费水平与人口结构变化对碳排放的影响力已高于人口规模变化的影响力,居民消费水平与消费模式等人文因素的变化有可能成为我国碳排放的新的增长点;技术进步因素在此模型中对我国该阶段碳排放的解释力有限,表明我国未来通过技术进步减缓碳排放的潜力巨大.     

中国现代城镇化发育的能源消费

城镇是现代社会财富积累的中心。矿物燃料为主的一次能源不仅是现代人类社会发展的基本动力来源,也是现代城镇化发育的基本动力来源。随着城镇化发育不断走向成熟,城镇的生存和发展对能源消费的依赖日趋强烈。这种消费需求不仅体现在总量增长方面,而且更体现在质量提高方面。世界和中国的实践均证明了这一点。所不同者,在产业发展政策和能源消费政策的作用下,中国现代城镇化发育的能源消费表现出明显的不尽人意:第一,能源消费总量增长迅速,甚至进入21世纪以来也是如此;第二,能源消费结构演进缓慢、特别是进入国家城镇化快速发育阶段后的表现更是如此;第三,能源产出效率提高有限,甚至出现一定程度的倒退。如此能源消费特征,对中国城镇化的持续发育构成了巨大挑战,因此,建议加快城镇产业结构调整、推进能源消费结构演进和提高城镇能源消费质量。     

Development and application of LC–APCI–MS method for biomonitoring of animal and human exposure to imidacloprid

Imidacloprid (IMI) is a relatively new neuro-active neonicotinoid insecticide and nowadays one of the largest selling insecticides worldwide. In the present study a LC–APCI–MS based method was developed and validated for the quantification of imidacloprid and its main metabolite 6-chloronicotinic acid (6-CINA) in urine and hair specimens. The method was tested in biomonitoring of intentionally exposed animals and subsequently applied for biomonitoring of Cretan urban and rural population.     

上海城市样带土壤有机碳空间变异性研究

为揭示城市化、工业化等人为活动对土壤有机碳的影响,选择能反映上海城郊乡梯度差异的城市样带,采用地统计学方法对表层土壤样品土壤有机碳的空间变异结构和分布格局进行了分析。结果表明：城市表层土壤有机碳含量均属中等变异,徐汇区土壤有机碳含量呈正态分布,奉贤区、闵行区和所研究样带土壤有机碳含量呈对数正态分布。半方差函数模型拟合结果显示徐汇和闵行区土壤有机碳符合指数模型,奉贤和所研究样带土壤有机碳符合球状模型。通过泛克里格插值得到城市表层土壤有机碳含量空间分布图,发现徐汇、闵行区土壤有机碳呈岛状,奉贤区呈条带状,而所研究样带呈条带和岛状分布相结合的特点。土壤有机碳含量城郊乡梯度差异明显,工业化、城市化、肥料投入与管理等人为因素对城市土壤有机碳空间分布密切相关     

湖北“人口-经济-空间”城市化及其层级结构

城市化的内在协调性是城市（区域乃至国家）综合竞争力、国民生计及可持续发展能力的综合体现。基于对城市化概念与内涵的认知--城市化是一个“人口 经济 空间”三维一体的过程,其中人是行为主体,经济是驱动力,空间是载体,构建了城市化综合测度指标,并运用时序全局主成分分析法,对2000年以来湖北省12个地级市的城市化层级结构演变过程及趋势进行了分析。结果表明湖北省城市化具有如下特征：① 城市化总量时序演变上呈现出明显的上升趋势,且存在经济城市化>空间城市化>综合城市化>人口城市化的变化趋势,但也表现出一定程度的粗放增长的内在特征;② 整个城市化过程是一个由人口城市化导向型向经济城市化导向型转变的过程;③ 城市化相关系数的时序演变与人口城市化集聚程度>空间城市化集聚程度>经济城市化集聚程度的演变趋势密切相关,表明综合城市化与人口城市化的地域协调性最高,而与经济的最低;④ 城市化等级体系空间结构及其时序演变具有首位度城市层级结构、城市层级结构动态演变,以及城市化地域协调性不强等特征;最后就城市化的协调发展提出对策和建议。为我国城市化可持续发展研究以及湖北省今后的城市化发展战略提供了理论借鉴和实践指导     

Pollutants and the health of green sea turtles resident to an urbanized estuary in San Diego, CA

Rapid expansion of coastal anthropogenic development means that critical foraging and developmental habitats often occur near highly polluted and urbanized environments. Although coastal contamination is widespread, the impact this has on long-lived vertebrates like the green turtle (Chelonia mydas) is unclear because traditional experimental methods cannot be applied. We coupled minimally invasive sampling techniques with health assessments to quantify contaminant patterns in a population of green turtles resident to San Diego Bay, CA, a highly urbanized and contaminated estuary. Several chemicals were correlated with turtle size, suggesting possible differences in physiological processes or habitat utilization between life stages. With the exception of mercury, higher concentrations of carapace metals as well as 4,4′-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and γ chlordane in blood plasma relative to other sea turtle studies raises important questions about the chemical risks to turtles resident to San Diego Bay. Mercury concentrations exceeded immune function no-effects thresholds and increased carapace metal loads were correlated with higher levels of multiple health markers. These results indicate immunological and physiological effects studies are needed in this population. Our results give insight into the potential conservation risk contaminants pose to sea turtles inhabiting this contaminated coastal habitat, and highlight the need to better manage and mitigate contaminant exposure in San Diego Bay.     

低剂量臭氧的直接通加对活性污泥的活性、微生物种群及污泥减量化的影响

研究构建了2个容积为1.1 L的好氧活性污泥反应器（即1号和2号反应器）1,号反应器每天直接通加低剂量臭氧（投加量为0.01 g O3/g TSS）,不加臭氧的2号反应器作为对照平行运行,均采用每天换一次人工污水的充/排式操作。运行71 d的结果表明2,个反应器对人工污水COD的处理效果基本相同。反应器运行40 d后1,号反应器的污泥浓度比2号反应器的污泥浓度低1 400～1 700 mg/L并可稳定在8 200 mg/L,污泥减量化效果明显。低剂量臭氧的直接通加明显降低了胞内ATP浓度,并影响了微生物的抗氧化活性,2号反应器的平均超氧化物歧化酶和过氧化氢酶酶活比1号反应器分别高了24.3%和9.5%。PCR-DGGE对两反应器微生物种群的分析结果表明：Uncultured gammaproteobacteria bacteri-um、Nannocystis exedens和Uncultured actinobacterium为1号反应器的主要种群;而2号反应器的主要种群为Uncultured bacte-rium和Uncultured gammaproteobacteria bacterium。