生态环境脆弱地区城市化发展特征及城市发展路径选择流程研究

脆弱的生态环境会对城市化进程产生一定的约束作用。生态环境脆弱地区的城市化,表现出与非脆弱地区不同的特征。以往的研究,更倾向于对各类生态环境脆弱地区分别进行研究。本文试图站在更宏观的角度,通过研究生态环境脆弱和非脆弱地区这两个大类在城市化发展方面的异同,明确生态环境脆弱地区城市化发展的特征及合适的路径。首先在阅读了大量国内外相关文献的基础上,总结了干旱区、喀斯特地区、高寒地区、过渡区等类型的生态环境脆弱区的共性,了解其城市化现状及约束因素,并结合学者们的研究,与生态环境良好地区的城市化进行了对比,提出发展的对策。在理论分析的基础上,文章第二部分初步构建了一个生态环境脆弱地区城市化发展路径的选择方法及流程。研究表明生态环境脆弱区城市化的制约因素主要有地质条件、地形、水文、气候、植被和地上地下自然资源等,与生态环境良好地区城市化的差异主要体现在产业选择、人口承载力及城市建设用地等方面,这些方面也是该类地区在城市化过程中应格外重视的。生态环境脆弱地区城市化路径选择流程主要分为以下几个步骤：归类、分析城市化水平及阶段、分析生态环境演变历程、研究城市化与生态环境的相互作用机制、情景分析、制定战略规划,确定城市的功能、定位等。     

上海市宝山区城镇化对农业用地环境质量的影响

利用环境风险指数法,对上海宝山区2003和2007年城镇农业土壤重金属Cd、Cr、Cu、Pb和Zn环境风险进行评价;从人口、经济、社会生活和生态环境4方面构建城镇化水平综合评价指标体系,并对宝山区2003和2007年城镇化水平进行综合测度,探讨宝山区城镇化水平与农业土壤环境风险指数间的定量关系。结果表明,与2003年相比,2007年宝山区农业土壤重金属Cr、Cu、Pb和Zn含量增加明显,农业土壤重金属综合环境风险加剧,环境风险在空间上表现为由东南向西北方向扩展态势;城镇化水平提升明显,城镇化水平与环境风险指数间存在明显正相关关系;目前宝山区城镇化发展模式不利于农业环境质量保护。     

中国的人口与发展

人口多、耕地少、人均资源相对不足,是中国的基本国情。因此,解决人口与发展之间的矛盾在我国就更为迫切。我们不能等待经济发展来引发人口出生率的自然下降,只能在大力推动社会经济发展的同时,积极推行计划生育,控制人口过快增长。     

蔬菜水果中的新烟碱类农药残留量与人群摄食暴露健康风险评价

新烟碱类农药是目前被广泛用于农业中的一类作用独特、高效广谱的内吸性杀虫剂,它们在蔬菜水果中的残留对人体健康构成威胁。本研究目的是查明北京市场上蔬菜水果中不同新烟碱类农药的残留量,并对人群摄食暴露健康风险进行评估。从北京市场上采集49种蔬菜和24种水果,采用Qu ECh ERS–高效液相色谱串联质谱(HPLC-MS/MS)法测定蔬菜水果中9种新烟碱类农药的含量。利用测得数据和中国居民膳食结构调查资料,采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法计算了不同年龄段人群的日均经口摄入暴露量的概率分布,并采用商值法计算了新烟碱类农药的非致癌风险。结果显示新烟碱类农药普遍存在于北京市场上的蔬菜水果中。49种蔬菜样品中检出7种新烟碱类农药,其中吡虫啉、啶虫脒和噻虫嗪检出率均达100%,噻虫胺、烯啶虫胺、噻虫啉和呋虫胺的检出率分别为47%、14%、10%和4%。24种水果样品中检出5种新烟碱类农药,其中吡虫啉和啶虫脒的检出率均达100%,噻虫嗪、噻虫胺和噻虫啉的检出率分别为54%、13%和4%。不同新烟碱类农药在蔬菜水果中的含量范围为0.01 ng·g~(-1)~126 ng·g~(-1),均未超过我国食品安全国家标准或美国联邦管理条例中的限量值。小部分(约3%)人群因摄食蔬菜水果暴露于新烟碱类农药的非致癌风险商值大于0.1。新烟碱类农药在蔬菜水果中普遍存在,对人体健康有潜在的风险。     

Urbanization and small household agricultural land use choices in the Brazilian Amazon and the role for the water chemistry of small streams

Many small watersheds and streams in the Brazilian Amazon have been impacted by agriculture and urban development, often due to household economic needs and migration processes. This study examined the relationships between land use, soil type, and household factors on stream water chemistry in and near the city of Altamira, Pará, Brazil, in 2008–2009. While soil weathering and stream discharge may have affected several stream water ion concentrations, agriculture and especially urban development were associated with high dissolved nitrogen concentrations, high water temperatures, and low dissolved oxygen concentrations in streams. Younger interviewed households were generally associated with these watersheds, and many urban residents reported disposing of household waste directly into streams. In contrast, older households were generally associated with forest and cocoa agriculture, along with lower water temperatures and higher dissolved oxygen concentrations in streams. These conditions persisted despite reported uses of herbicides and fertilizers by some residents.     

Impacts of the deforestation driven by agribusiness on urban population and economic activity in the Dry Chaco of Argentina

Agriculture expansion oriented to global market has changed the relation between population and deforestation in South America. Actually, the population dynamic in an agricultural frontier turned into a consequence of deforestation (rather than the cause). For Dry Chaco of Argentina during the period 1991–2001, we explore the impacts of deforestation over urban population and employment dynamics in small- and medium-size urban centers. We used deforestation maps from remote sensing data and demographic information from the national census. We found a positive relation between population growth and deforestation. Additionally, urban centers in a context of new and active deforestation stages generate more jobs than in a context of advanced stages. Based on our results, we suggest a boom and bust pattern. Agriculture expansion and deforestation generate transient jobs and benefits, but in a long-run perspective, positive impacts are uncertain.     

东北野生五味子种群特征及其与环境因子的关系

五味子(Schisandra chinensis)是著名的传统中药材,主要分布在我国东北地区. 受过度采摘和毁林开荒等不科学利用方式的影响,野生五味子资源急剧恶化. 沿长白山山脉和小兴安岭山脉调查了17个野生五味子种群,分析了种群特征、环境因子特征及二者的相关关系. 结果表明:①五味子果实质量与纬度呈极显著负相关,基径与海拔呈显著正相关,而种群密度空间分布规律不明显;五味子果实质量、基径和种群密度间不存在显著相关性. ②五味子果实千粒质量和基径平均值分别为(69.05±12.80) g和(0.61±0.13)cm,种群密度大,约50%五味子种群密度达到4级(>1.5～2.0株/m2). ③五味子野生种群采样点的土壤pH(5.34～6.98)呈酸性;w(SOC)(SOC为土壤有机碳)在4.42%～18.47%之间,差异较大;w(TN)、w(TK)和w(TP)平均值分别为0.72%±0.28%、1.74%±0.31%和0.10%±0.03%. ④年降水量在474~928mm之间;年日照时长变化幅度小,在2219.3～2703.7h之间;年均气温和年均相对湿度的平均值分别为(3.46±1.44) ℃和68.9%±2.7%. 主成分分析表明,五味子果实质量受环境因子影响显著,其中年均气温的影响最大,其次是w(TP)、w(TN)、w(SOC)和年降水量;而基径和种群密度受环境因子的影响不显著. 对野生五味子种群生长限制因子的分析结果可为该种群保护、人工栽培与调控奠定理论基础.      

Ecotoxicological effects of Trichloroethene upon plankton

A case study in an experimental pond was performed to evaluate the ecotoxic effects of Trichloroethene (TRI) upon the population density and productivity of phyto‐ and zooplankton. TRI was continuously released into two pond enclosures over 11 weeks (mean concentrations 1.5 and 7.5 mg/l). The chronic chemical treatment showed distinctive toxic influences upon the biota. Following the high TRI concentration, the phytoplankton density slightly increased; the productivity per single cells, however, was significantly reduced compared to the controls and the low TRI concentration. Cryptophyceae were the most sensitive algae taxa. The density and reproductivity of Daphniae and Phyllopodae decreased by the high TRI concentration. Most of the Rotatoriae were not negatively influenced. With increasing TRI concentrations two different bacteria forms showed a mass development. Small amounts of Trichloroacetic acid were detected in both enclosures as a conversion product of TRI (～3 μg/l after 80 days treatment).     

An integrated approach for predicting fates of reintroductions with demographic data from multiple populations

We devised a novel approach to model reintroduced populations whereby demographic data collected from multiple sites are integrated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Integrating data from multiple reintroductions allows more precise population-growth projections to be made, especially for populations for which data are sparse, and allows projections that account for random site-to-site variation to be made before new reintroductions are attempted. We used data from reintroductions of the North Island Robin (Petroica longipes), an endemic New Zealand passerine, to 10 sites where non-native mammalian predators are controlled. A comparison of candidate models that we based on deviance information criterion showed that rat-tracking rate (an index of rat density) was a useful predictor of robin fecundity and adult female survival, that landscape connectivity and a binary measure of whether sites were on a peninsula were useful predictors of apparent juvenile survival (probably due to differential dispersal away from reintroduction sites), and that there was unexplained random variation among sites in all demographic rates. We used the two best supported models to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) for populations at each of the 10 sites, and for a proposed reintroduction site, under different levels of rat control. Only three of the reintroduction sites had λ distributions completely >1 for either model. At two sites, λ was expected to be >1 if rat-tracking rates were <5%. At the other five reintroduction sites, λ was predicted to be close to 1, and it was unclear whether growth was expected. Predictions of λ for the proposed reintroduction site were less precise than for other sites because distributions incorporated the full range of site-to-site random variation in vital rates. Our methods can be applied to any species for which postrelease data on demographic rates are available and potentially can be extended to model multiple species simultaneously.     

城市化对北京夏季极端高温影响的数值研究

利用一个耦合了城市冠层模式（UCM）的区域数值模拟系统（WRF／NCAR）,引入由LandsatTM提取的京津冀区域30m分辨率下垫面GIS数据集代替美国USGS地表分类数据,对2009年6月24—25日出现在北京地区的一次超过40℃极端高温天气过程进行了高分辨率数值模拟,用以考察WRF／UCM系统对北京“城市热岛”及城市高温天气的模拟效果,并分析了城市化对北京地区城市高温和地表能量平衡的影响及其日变化特征。结果表明：采用精细化下垫面分类数据集后能更好地模拟出主要高温区的分布特征,并能较好再现夜间的“城市热岛”效应。城市化发展对近地层气温的影响主要表现在会促使城区及其下风向近郊区气温的升高,增幅可达0．5～2℃,这与城市热岛及其下游效应有关。城市下垫面的高粗糙度对近地层风速表现出明显的阻挡效应,表现在模拟的10m风场减弱明显。考虑了城市下垫面属性的敏感性试验更好地再现了城区温度的日变化,其模拟的日间最高温度与实际观测值更为接近,也较好地模拟出了城区具有较高最低温度的特征。通过城区与郊区能量平衡过程差异的分析表明,城市化可以显著改变能量平衡中各项所占的比重。地表对近地层大气热量输送过程的变化表明随着城市下垫面的日愈扩大,会显著增强白天地表对大气的向上感热输送,增大城区日间出现高温的可能。夜间,模式反映出地表能量收入来自土壤热通量的向上输送,同样由于城区的潜热通量小,收入的能量仍主要以感热形式加热大气,夜间城区具有较高的最低温度并表现出较强的热岛特征,主要与夜间感热加热的持续相关。