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141.
模糊证据权法在地震滑坡危险度区划中的应用 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
为克服滑坡危险度评价中因子边界划分不确定性和因子权重的主观性问题,引入模糊证据权法,对汶川震区岷江流域雁门乡至映秀段,进行滑坡发生后验概率计算。采用修正后验概率模型,来满足模糊证据权法中证据层间的条件独立性假设,以提高预测结果精度。最后按照预测的滑坡点数,完成研究区滑坡危险度区划。通过与野外实际踏勘数据对比,结果显示:75.24%的已知滑坡点处于修正后验概分级中等危险度以上。表明模糊证据权方法,可较为客观准确地对地震滑坡危险度进行区划,适用于预测以自然因素为主导的事件发生概率。 相似文献
142.
Angelika Wähner Gisbert Gramse Tim Langer Michael Beyer 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2013,26(6):1655-1660
Based on existing MIE test results and new measurements, a statistical analysis for the MIE of hydrogen, ethene and propane is made by means of the logistic regression. The conditions necessary to carry out such an approach are discussed. It is shown that MIE values which are connected with a certain ignition probability could be determined adequately and lead to a more sophisticated result, also with regard to measurement uncertainties. This, in turn, leads to a better comparability and a higher informative content. At the same time, the MIEs of hydrogen, ethene and propane are reviewed. In doing so, a useful contribution to the discussion concerning the MIE of propane is made. 相似文献
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144.
Enrico Celio Adrienne Grêt-Regamey 《Journal of Environmental Planning and Management》2016,59(11):2079-2101
Land-use models can be used to assess the importance of different drivers of land-use change. Local actors make land-use decisions on the basis of both biophysical and policy aspects, but they can also be considered as autonomous drivers as their attitudes and beliefs influence land-use substantially. We use a Bayesian network-based Land-use Modeling Approach (BLUMAP) to analyze influences of local actor characteristics on land-use change in a spatially explicit manner. Our analysis shows that local actor characteristics have a greater influence on land-use change than changes in agricultural policy schemes. Furthermore, focusing on the probabilities of land-use occurrence under different scenarios facilitates the quantification of influences of local actor characteristics on land-use changes and aids in the detection of where land-use changes are more likely to occur. We demonstrate that local actor characteristics could override land-use policy trends; thus, greater consideration should be paid to actors in land-use development processes. 相似文献
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146.
Modeling Summer Month Hydrological Drought Probabilities in the United States Using Antecedent Flow Conditions
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Samuel H. Austin David L. Nelms 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2017,53(5):1133-1146
Climate change raises concern that risks of hydrological drought may be increasing. We estimate hydrological drought probabilities for rivers and streams in the United States (U.S.) using maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR). Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate the chance of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 9,144 stream gages from January 1, 1884 through January 9, 2014 provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February, estimating outcomes 5‐11 months ahead of their occurrence. Few drought prediction methods exploit temporal links among streamflows. We find MLLR modeling of drought streamflow probabilities exploits the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. MLLR models with strong correct classification rates were produced for streams throughout the U.S. One ad hoc test of correct prediction rates of September 2013 hydrological droughts exceeded 90% correct classification. Some of the best‐performing models coincide with areas of high concern including the West, the Midwest, Texas, the Southeast, and the Mid‐Atlantic. Using hydrological drought MLLR probability estimates in a water management context can inform understanding of drought streamflow conditions, provide warning of future drought conditions, and aid water management decision making. 相似文献
147.
城市地震次生火灾危险性分析 总被引:10,自引:2,他引:8
建议了一个城市地震次生火灾危险性分析的一般模型。利用民事火灾的统计分析结果,给出了城市地震次生火灾发生率的修正公式。在此基础上建议了地震次生火灾危险性分析方法,亲以超越概率曲线的方法表达次生火灾危险性分析的结果。结合实际工程,给出了分析实例。 相似文献
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149.
环境风险评价的不确定性问题处理方法进展 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
环境风险分析是环境管理和决策的基础。由于环境数据相对比较模糊并且不够精确,用这类数据进行的相关分析和研究必定存在着偏差。从本质上说,风险分析的不确定性有两个原因,随机性和不完全性。目前解决不确定性的方法主要基于概率理论和模糊集理论。概率理论使用概率密度函数来描述环境参数中的随机变量。模糊集理论使用隶属函数和If——Then语句来表述环境问题的模糊性。目前相关研究主要集中于两种方法的结合。本文就各方法在不同环境介质风险评价中的应用进行了综述分析。 相似文献
150.
为评估非常规油气开采过程水力压裂诱发断层活化失稳风险,基于新库仑稳定函数,通过编程求解诱震概率,分析不同诱因下断层稳定性和失稳风险。结果表明:孔隙弹性剪应力、孔隙压力和差异压实共同作用,是断层活化失稳重要诱因。当孔隙弹性剪应力介于6~10 MPa时,断层失稳概率高达68.9%,其增幅率越大,诱发远区断层失稳风险越高。孔隙压力增量超过3 MPa,对于定向不良断层极为不利;断层倾角和落差越大,差异压实作用越显著。 相似文献