基于任务成功率的装备综合保障工作体系及协同设计环境研究

本文介绍了基于任务成功率的装备综合保障工作体系框架,提出了可靠性、维修性、测试性、保障性、安全性协同设计环境要求,从而为进行可靠性、维修性、测试性、保障性、安全性综合优化设计奠定基础。     

介绍两种震害损失估算方法

本文介绍了两种震害损失估算方法:全概率法和单位面积法。并据此法对宁夏、青海等地震害作了估算。     

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.     

天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价技术研究

为研究天然气长输管道失效个人生命风险,提出一种以人员伤亡概率为指标的天然气管道失效后果风险评价方法。基于天然气管道的失效概率和失效致死长度参数,建立天然气长输管道生命风险评价模型。用该模型,对国内某城市住宅小区内带腐蚀缺陷的天然气管线进行定量风险分析。借鉴英国天然气输送公司数据,确定天然气管线个人生命风险值。案例证明,用所建立的天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价模型能够有效地分析带缺陷天然气管道失效后果,实现天然气管道的个人安全生命风险全定量评价。     

基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。     

基坑放坡开挖对下方既有地铁隧道影响计算及风险预测

为研究基坑放坡开挖对下方既有地铁隧道的影响以及预测隧道结构的风险,通过改进的计算方法得到放坡开挖基坑引起下方既有地铁隧道的竖向和横向附加荷载、位移、相对变形曲率共6个隧道结构安全的物理表现因子;将位移计算结果与前人理论计算结果、实测数据对比验证,并分析各土层物理力学参数对6个因子的敏感性;最后,基于正态分布概率模型对较敏感的土层物理力学参数随机取值,利用蒙特卡罗方法计算6个因子各级风险发生的概率和竖向、横向2类因子综合影响下隧道结构各级风险发生的总概率。研究结果表明:与原来仅限于矩形开挖基坑的计算方法相比,改进后的计算方法适用范围更广、实用性更强;在算例二分析中,隧道竖向位移和相对变形曲率超过控制值的概率分别为12%和68.7%,其余因子均为0,隧道竖向相对变形曲率是隧道结构处于不安全状态的最主要因子;若不采取预防措施,隧道结构将有高达73.27%的概率处于不安全状态,其中有68.7%的概率处于很不安全状态。     

RBF神经网络可靠度分析方法在边坡稳定性研究中的应用

针对边坡稳定性可靠度分析,当状态函数无法显式表达且传统计算方法求解复杂问题困难时,提出一种基于ABAQUS和粒子群优化径向基函数神经网络的可靠度分析方法。基于ABAQUS的强度折减方法计算所选随机变量对应的安全系数,利用径向基函数神经网络的数据拟合功能,建立模型并映射出安全系数和随机变量之间的关系,构造响应面功能函数;利用蒙特卡罗生成的大量随机样本代入功能函数得到相应的安全系数,进而计算边坡的失稳概率和可靠度指标来反映边坡稳定性。研究结果表明:相对于传统方法,本文方法计算效率更高、误差更小,适合实际工程应用。     

基于船舶操纵模拟的船撞桥概率研究

针对船舶在桥区水域航行过程中撞击桥墩的碰撞概率问题,建立并验证了船舶操纵数学模型,模拟了船舶在不同风、水流等条件下的航行情况,改进了AASHTO船舶撞桥概率模型中几何概率的算法,提出了以模拟试验样本的航迹带中心位置坐标为均值,以模拟实验样本结果计算的方差为方差的几何概率模型,同时引入停船概率模型。将改进后的模型应用于北江油金大桥船舶操纵模拟及船撞概率的研究,预测2020年北江油金大桥受上行船舶碰撞年频率大约2.81×10-6次/a,受下行船舶碰撞年频率3.43×10-4次/a,总碰撞频率3.461×10-4次/a。     

A model of rainfall redistribution in terraced sandy grassland landscapes

A simple model of rainfall redistribution within a terraced sandy grassland landscape has been developed. The model assumes that rainfall redistribution is driven by rainfall impulses and is controlled by characteristic field capacity of soils. When the rainfall intensity is large enough to render soil water content greater than its characteristic field capacity, the excessive soil water can drain very quickly by means of large amounts of non-capillary pores of sandy soils or by means of surface runoff. Exponential distribution of rainfall impulses was assumed and tested with measured daily rainfall at two meteorological stations in the sandy grassland area of north China. The model was solved to give the equivalent rainfall at each terrace in the landscape.