新乡市地表水体HCHs和DDTs的分布特征及生态风险评价

为了解新乡市地表水中HCHs和DDTs的分布特征及生态风险,采集新乡市18个地表水样并测定其中HCHs和DDTs的含量,采用概率密度函数重叠面积法和安全阈值法评价了HCHs和DDTs的生态风险.结果表明,新乡市地表水中HCHs和DDTs的质量浓度范围分别为1.28~49.2 ng·L-1和0.42~12.3 ng·L-1,与世界各地的地表水中HCHs和DDTs残留质量浓度相比属于中等污染水平.异构体比值表明HCHs污染的主要来源是林丹的使用,而DDTs的残留来源于工业品DDTs的使用.生态风险评价基于DDD、γ-HCHs和p,p'-DDT的暴露浓度以及相应的毒性数据,概率密度函数重叠面积法和安全阈值法均表明了这3种有机氯农药中DDD的风险最大,其次是γ-HCHs,p,p'-DDT的生态风险最小;安全阈值法进一步表明DDD、γ-HCHs和p,p'-DDT超过影响10%水生生物的概率分别为10.2%、5.94%和0.01%.     

反舰导弹射击精度评估研究

分析了反舰导弹射击精度评估领域命中概率与圆概率偏差、命中区域圆概率偏差的分歧,提出了制导概率椭圆偏差和制导概率圆偏差的新概念。将反舰导弹飞行末段雷达导引头波束覆盖区域与打击目标水面舰艇轮廓大小进行了比对,根据比对结果划分为雷达导引头波束完全覆盖、部分覆盖和内嵌于目标三个等级,对应提出了命中概率评估方法、制导概率椭圆偏差评估方法和制导概率圆偏差评估方法。通过反舰导弹对快艇、驱护舰和航母三类目标射击精度评估算例验证了反舰导弹射击精度评估总体方案的全面性和三类方法的适用性。     

LY12CZ铝合金腐蚀损伤的概率分布及其变化规律

采用铜加速乙酸盐雾试验方法对LY12CZ铝合金腐蚀行为进行了研究。结果表明：腐蚀深度服从Gumbel分布、正态分布、威布尔分布和对数正态4种分布。选用正态分布描述了LY12CZ铝合金在盐雾环境下的腐蚀损伤的分布特性,并得出了不同置信度和可靠度下腐蚀深度随时间变化的规律。     

超标概率场在污水海洋处置工程浓度场分析中的应用

以深圳市宝安污水海洋处置工程为背景,针对目前国内外进行排放口近区研究存在的问题,提出了一套解决这些问题的方法．建立了一套详细的采用超标概率场、侵袭频率场分析时域法的计算结果的方法．通过输入排放口丰、枯水期大、小潮的监测数据,计算得出了这４种状况下,排放污水产生的超标概率场和侵袭频率场,并得出了相应的结论     

基于损伤检测的腐蚀疲劳寿命预测概率模型

建立了飞机结构腐蚀疲劳寿命预测的4阶段概率模型,结合腐蚀疲劳损伤检测结果,通过检测的灵敏度和准确度2个随机变量来描述检测技术的可靠性;建立了检测后的修正腐蚀疲劳寿命预测概率模型,通过对比分析修正前后的腐蚀疲劳寿命分布,得出腐蚀损伤尺寸的检测结果。对腐蚀疲劳寿命的评估影响很大,并且检测技术越可靠,寿命评估越准确。     

2017—2019年中国337个城市及重点区域臭氧污染状况分析

分析了2017—2019年中国337城市O_3污染特征,结果表明:2017—2019年全国O_3第20～70百分位浓度逐年增幅相对稳定,第80～95百分位浓度逐年上升速率最快,平均每年升高5.5μg/m~3。全国O_3超标以轻度污染为主,主要集中在5—9月,占全年O_3超标天数的85.3%;"2+26"城市、汾渭平原交界、长三角、苏皖鲁豫交界O_3超标天数占全国63.9%,"2+26"城市O_3污染最为严重,平均每城市超标71 d。2017—2019年O_3单因子超标分别损失全国空气质量优良天数比例为4.5个百分点、4.9个百分点和7.4个百分点,2019年9月O_3单因子超标天数比例为18.8个百分点,单月使全年优良天数减少1.2个百分点。天津、河北、山东、北京、河南、山西、江苏的O_3污染相对较重,天津市发生O_3污染的关键温度为26～34℃,风速为2.0～2.5 m/s,相对湿度为40%～80%,降水明显减少和温度偏高是导致2019年O_3浓度升高的重要气象因素。     

A critical appraisal of population viability analysis

Population viability analysis (PVA) is useful in management of imperiled species. Applications range from research design, threat assessment, and development of management frameworks. Given the importance of PVAs, it is essential that they be rigorous and adhere to widely accepted guidelines; however, the quality of published PVAs is rarely assessed. We evaluated the quality of 160 PVAs of 144 species of birds and mammals published in peer-reviewed journals from 1990 to 2017. We hypothesized that PVA quality would be lower with generic programs than with custom-built programs; be higher for those developed for imperiled species; change over time; and be higher for those published in journals with high impact factors (IFs). Each included study was evaluated based on answers to an evaluation framework containing 32 questions reflecting whether and to what extent the PVA study adhered to published PVA guidelines or contained important PVA components. All measures of PVA quality were generally lower for studies based on generic programs. Conservation status of the species did not affect any measure of PVA quality, but PVAs published in high IF journals were of higher quality. Quality generally declined over time, suggesting the quantitative literacy of PVA practitioners has not increased over time or that PVAs developed by unskilled users are being published in peer-reviewed journals. Only 18.1% of studies were of high quality (score >75%), which is troubling because poor-quality PVAs could misinform conservation decisions. We call for increased scrutiny of PVAs by journal editors and reviewers. Our evaluation framework can be used for this purpose. Because poor-quality PVAs continue to be published, we recommend caution while using PVA results in conservation decision making without thoroughly assessing the PVA quality.     

ESTIMATING CENTRAL TENDENCY FROM UNCENSORED TRACE LEVEL MEASUREMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The statistical analysis of data which have trace level measurements has traditionally been a two-step process in which data are first censored using criteria based on measurement precision, and then analyzed with statistical methods for censored data. The process might be more informative if data were left uncensored. In this paper, information loss attributable to censoring and measurement noise are assessed by comparing the sample mean and median of uncensored measurements with a log regression mean and median based on censored data. Measurements are derived from lognormal parent distributions which have random variability characteristic of trace level measurement. The relative performance of estimators used with error-free samples and with samples having measurement noise can be explained by differences between the probability distributions of parents and measurements. Measurement introduces bias and dispersion and transforms lognormal parent distributions toward greater symmetry. Estimates using uncensored data are less biased and more accurate than the log regression mean and median when censoring exceeds about 50 percent, and are not much worse at any fraction censored. For data with many (80 percent) results below the limit of detection, bias may be quite severe.     

新疆沙尔布尔-萨吾尔山地区区域化探岩屑地球化学异常Ⅲ级检查的试验研究

本文介绍了区域岩屑地球化学异常Ⅲ级检查方法，并从单元素异常、多元素组合异常、岩层元素丰度及背景分布理论、元素点异常概率、特殊样品的地球化学特征等方面对区域化探异常进行综合解释评价，取得了较好效果。