中部地区资源型城市城市化与生态环境动态耦合关系

通过构建城市化与生态环境耦合模型,利用中部地区37个资源型城市2005—2014年城市化系统和生态环境系统的30个指标数据,对城市化与生态环境耦合关系动态变化进行测度,并比较分析不同类型资源型城市城市化水平、生态环境水平及其二者耦合协调度的变化。结果表明:(1)2005以来人口城市化对资源型地区城市化综合水平的影响力减弱,社会城市化的影响力逐渐加大并趋于比较重要的地位。尽管资源条件对资源型城市的生态环境综合水平影响最大,但生态环境治理水平对资源型地区生态环境综合水平的影响力正变得日益重要。(2)各城市间城市化综合水平差异较大,而生态环境综合水平差异较小。自2005年以来城市化发展综合水平的城际差异无较大改变,但生态环境发展水平的城际差异正变得日趋缩小。位于山西省的资源型城市城市化综合水平和生态环境综合水平的变动较之其他省份更为显著。(3)中部地区资源型城市的协调类型处于勉强协调、初级协调和中级协调,并以初级协调型为主。2005以来中部地区多数资源型城市城市化与生态环境关系保持不变,关系恶化的资源型城市主要分布在安徽、江西和湖南,关系更为协调的资源型城市主要位于山西。(4)不同类型资源型城市的城市化综合水平差异显著,而生态环境综合水平差异并不明显。再生型和衰退型城市的耦合协调度水平较高,成熟型城市的耦合协调度较低。(5)城市化滞后仍是资源型城市城市化与生态环境关系不协调发展的主要原因。     

Ecosystem services in coupled social–ecological systems: Closing the cycle of service provision and societal feedback

Both the ‘cascade model’ of ecosystem service provision and the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response framework individually contribute to the understanding of human–nature interactions in social–ecological systems (SES). Yet, as several points of criticism show, they are limited analytical tools when it comes to reproducing complex cause–effect relationships in such systems. However, in this paper, we point out that by merging the two models, they can mutually enhance their comprehensiveness and overcome their individual conceptual deficits. Therefore we closed a cycle of ecosystem service provision and societal feedback by rethinking and reassembling the core elements of both models. That way, we established a causal sequence apt to describe the causes of change to SES, their effects and their consequences. Finally, to illustrate its functioning we exemplified and discussed our approach based on a case study conducted in the Alpujarra de la Sierra in southern Spain.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-015-0651-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Kinetics study of fermentative hydrogen production from liquid swine manure supplemented with glucose under controlled pH

Kinetics of H₂ production from liquid swine manure supplemented with glucose by mixed anaerobic cultures was investigated using batch experiments under four different pH conditions (4.4, 5.0, 5.6, and uncontrolled). The temperature for the experiments was controlled at 37 ± 1°C and the length of experiments varied between 50 and 120 hours, depending upon the time needed for completion of each individual experiment. The modified Gompertz model was evaluated for its suitability for describing the H₂ production potential, H₂ production rate, and substrate consumption rate for all the experiments. The results showed that the Gompertz model could adequately fit the experimental results. The effect of pH was significant on all kinetic parameters for H₂ production including yield, production rate and lag time, and the substrate utilization rate. The optimal pH was found to be 5.0, at which a maximum H₂ production rate (0.64 L H₂/h) was obtained, and deviation from the optimal pH could result in substantial reductions in H₂ production rate (0.32 L H₂/h for pH 4.0 and 0.43 L H₂/h for pH 5.6). The results also showed that if pH was not controlled for the batch fermentation process, the substrate utilization efficiency could steeply decrease from 98.8% to 33.7%.     

旅游产业园：理论模式与实践发展

旅游产业集群式发展成为新的发展趋势和现实要求,但目前国内仍存在多种发展模式。笔者认为,旅游产业园应特别突出旅游产业特色,既要考虑传统的观光度假功能,更应考虑上下游的旅游装备研发制造、旅游商品研发生产、旅游产品营销推广等各个环节。以鄱阳湖生态旅游产业园为例,分析了该产业发展模式的建设背景、战略意义、发展定位和建设内容。     

煤炭企业发展低碳经济的动力机制

将影响煤炭企业发展低碳经济的动力因素分为四大类,包括4个拉力因素、1个支撑因素、2个压力因素和4个推动力因素。设计了煤炭企业发展低碳经济的动力机制模型,在分析各个动力因素的基础上,构建了煤炭企业发展低碳经济的拉力机制模型、支撑机制模型、压力机制模型和推动力机制模型。     

基于SCP模型的节能环保市场分析研究

从需求角度出发,区分了节能环保产业中三种不同类型的市场,然后以SCP模型为分析框架,对三种不同类型的市场结构、企业行为和绩效进行了分析和比较,归纳了节能环保产业中不同类型的市场所存在的问题和解决思路。     

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Salinity in a Coastal Community of South Florida1

Guha, Hillol and Sorab Panday, 2012. Impact of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater Salinity in a Coastal Community of South Florida. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(3): 510-529. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00630.x Abstract: Freshwater resources of coastal communities in the United States and world over are threatened by the rate of sea level rise. According to recent estimates by various governmental agencies and climate researchers, the global sea level rise is likely to be between 0.6 and 2.1 m by the year 2100. South Florida is a coastal community and much of its coastline is subject to sea level rise and potential impacts to wetlands and the water resources of the area. To understand what the impact of sea level rise would cause to the groundwater level and salinity intrusion, an integrated groundwater and surface water model was developed for North Miami-Dade and Broward Counties of South Florida. The model was calibrated against daily groundwater heads, base flows in canals, and chloride concentrations for a period of one year and six months. Three separate sensitivity analyses were conducted by increasing the sea level by 0.6, 0.9, and 1.22 m. Results of the simulations shows increase of groundwater heads in some areas from 4 to 15%; whereas the average relative chloride concentrations increased significantly by 100-600% in some wells. The increase in groundwater elevations and chloride concentrations varies from location of the wells and its proximity to the coast. The model results indicate that even a 0.6 m increase in sea level (which is the conservative estimate) is likely to impair the vital freshwater resources in many parts of South Florida.     

Prediction of Streamflow Regime and Annual Runoff for Ungauged Basins Using a Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model1

Moore, R.D. (Dan), J.W. Trubilowicz, and J.M. Buttle, 2011. Prediction of Streamflow Regime and Annual Runoff for Ungauged Basins Using a Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 32‐42. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00595.x Abstract: Prediction of streamflow in ungauged basins is a global challenge, but is particularly an issue in physiographically complex regions like British Columbia (BC), Canada. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of a simple water balance model that can be run using existing spatial datasets. The model was developed by modifying an existing monthly water balance model to account for interception loss from forest canopy, glacier melt, and evaporation from lakes. The model was run using monthly climate normals from the ClimateBC application, which have a horizontal resolution of 400 m. Each ClimateBC grid cell was classified as forest, open land, glacier or water surface based on provincial scale digital maps of biogeoclimatic zones, glaciers, and water. The output was monthly mean runoff from each grid cell. These values were integrated within the catchment boundaries for streams gauged by the Water Survey of Canada. Annual runoff was predicted with modest accuracy: after updating the predicted runoff by interpolating errors from neighboring gauged streams, the mean absolute error was 25.4% of the gauged value, and 52% of the streams had errors less than 20%. However, the model appears to be quite robust in distinguishing between pluvial, hybrid, and melt‐dominated hydroclimatic regimes, and therefore has promise as a tool for catchment classification.     

Application of Rosgen’s BANCS Model for NE Kansas and the Development of Predictive Streambank Erosion Curves1

Sass, Christopher K. and Tim D. Keane, 2012. Application of Rosgen’s BANCS Model for NE Kansas and the Development of Predictive Streambank Erosion Curves. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(4): 774‐787. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2012.00644.x Abstract: Sedimentation of waterways and reservoirs directly related to streambank erosion threatens freshwater supply. This study sought to provide a tool that accurately predicts annual streambank erosion rates in NE Kansas. Rosgen (2001, 2006) methods were employed and 18 study banks were measured and monitored from 2007 through 2010 (May‐June). Bank profiles were overlaid to calculate toe pin area change due to erosional processes. Streambanks experienced varied erosion rates from similar Bank Erosion Hazard Index (BEHI)‐Near Bank Stress (NBS) combinations producing R² values of 0.77 High‐Very High BEHI rating and 0.75 Moderate BEHI rating regarding predictive erosion curves for NE Kansas. Moderate ratings demonstrated higher erosion rates than High‐Very High ratings and BEHI trend lines intersected at lower NBS ratings, suggesting a discrepancy in the fit of the model to conditions in the NE Kansas region. BEHI model factors were evaluated and assessed for additional influences exerted in the region. Woody vegetation adjacent to the stream seemed to provide the most variation in erosion rates. This study’s findings allowed us to calibrate and modify the existing BEHI model according to woody vegetation occurrence levels along streambanks with high clay content. Modifications regarding vegetation occurrence of the BEHI model was completed and the results of these modifications generated new curves resulting in R² values of 0.84 High‐Very High BEHI and 0.88 Moderate BEHI ratings.     

Pesticide residue dynamics in passion fruits: Comparing field trial and modelling results

We evaluated the exposure to pesticides from the consumption of passion fruits and subsequent human health risks by combining several methods: (i) experimental field studies including the determination of pesticide residues in/on passion fruits, (ii) dynamic plant uptake modelling, and (iii) human health risk assessment concepts. Eight commonly used pesticides were applied onto passion fruits cultivated in Colombia. Pesticide concentrations were measured periodically (between application and harvest) in whole fruits and fruit pulp. Measured concentrations were compared with predicted residues calculated with a dynamic and crop-specific pesticide uptake model, namely dynamiCROP. The model accounts for the time between pesticide application and harvest, the time between harvest and consumption, the amount of spray deposition on plant surfaces, uptake processes, dilution due to crop growth, degradation in plant components, and reduction due to food processing (peeling). Measured and modelled residues correspond well (r² = 0.88-0.99), with all predictions falling within the 90% confidence interval of the measured values. A mean error of 43% over all studied pesticides was observed between model estimates and measurements. The fraction of pesticide applied during cultivation that is eventually ingested by humans is on average 10⁻⁴-10⁻⁶, depending on the time period between application and ingestion and the processing step considered. Model calculations and intake fractions via fruit consumption based on experimental data corresponded well for all pesticides with a deviation of less than a factor of 2. Pesticide residues in fruits measured at recommended harvest dates were all below European Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) and therefore do not indicate any violation of international regulatory thresholds.