Patchy Distribution Fields: Sampling Distance Unit of an Interleaved Survey and Reconstruction Adequacy

A mathematical model was used to examine the effects of choosing various units of sampling distance of an interleaved (two-pass) acoustic survey on the adequacy of reconstructing patchy distribution fields. The model simulates fish or plankton patches (or gaps) of different shapes and spatial orientations, and an interleaved survey by parallel or zigzag transects, along which a unit of sampling distance is set. The efficiency of a survey is determined by the adequacy of a reconstructed field to that originally generated, which is evaluated by calculating their correlations (r). Regarding immovable fields, the experiments conducted indicate that a patchy field can be reconstructed properly (r ² > 0.70) if the distance between transects D < (1.5–2.0)R and the unit of sampling distance d < (1.5– 2.0)R _p. As, for regular surveys d < (1.0–1.5)R _p, it may be concluded that interleaved surveys are more efficient than regular ones because of the factor studied. In regard to movable fields, a comparison of the results of interleaved surveys with those of regular surveys directly indicates that the former may ensure a more adequate field reconstruction than the latter do. This fact confirms the previous conclusion that an interleaved survey is expedient in cases where there is no preference regarding the position of a vessel for further work.     

In the aftermath of the Qa'yamat:1 the Kashmir earthquake disaster in northern Pakistan

This article explores the local impact of the catastrophic earthquake in northern Pakistan on 8 October 2005. Drawing on field research, including interviews with 40 earthquake survivors, the post-disaster analysis presented here focuses upon risk awareness and the reactions of respondents to the 7.6 magnitude earthquake that devastated areas of Azad Jammu and Kashmir State, and North-West Frontier Province. The analysis provides insights into local perceptions of seismic hazard and exposure as well as survivors' priorities with regard to rebuilding and reconstruction. The article suggests that the tragedy of the devastating earthquake is entangled in a deeper knot of causal factors that are social, economic and political in nature. Rapid population growth, urbanisation, changing building styles, environmental degradation and lack of preparedness and mitigation are associated with the circumstances that place the population at risk. Remarks concerning present and future risk reduction efforts are included.     

莱州湾南岸咸水入侵区生态环境分区与生态恢复研究

本文在对莱州湾南岸咸水入侵区进行区域生态分析的基础上,对研究区进行了生态环境分区,提出了研究区环境战略调整和综合治理咸水入侵灾害的关键性技术措施,并结合各分区特点,有针对性地提出了各生态环境分区生态恢复和重建的组合配套措施。     

北京城区典型内涝积水原因诊断研究——以上清桥区域为例

近年来城市暴雨频发导致内涝灾害广受关注,系统分析城市内涝原因是当前城市水文研究的热点和难点。论文以北京市典型积水点上清桥易积水区为例,基于排水管网、地形、下垫面、河道边界等数据构建研究区精细化洪涝模型,并以2012年“7·21”和2016年“7·20”两场典型暴雨的实测积水深度验证模型的适用性。结果表明,上清桥区域管网现状排水能力小于1 a一遇,当发生1 a一遇及以上设计降雨时上清桥有发生积水的风险。引起研究区积水频发主要有四方面因素,按主次关系排列：局部地势因素>管网因素>下垫面因素>河道顶托,最后基于分析结果系统提出解决上清桥区域积水的改造方案。     

青藏高原高寒牧区聚落用地适宜性评价及其重构——以藏北那曲县为例

本文建立了适用于高寒牧区的聚落布局适宜性评价体系,利用自组织神经网络（SOFM）对青藏高原藏北地区那曲县展开聚落布局适宜性评价,并评估其现状聚落布局的合理性,在此基础上提出其聚落未来重构的思路。结果表明:（1）那曲县对于聚落布局的适宜性整体较低,适宜性水平高于一般适宜的区域零散分布在海拔较低、地势低缓的河谷地区,仅占全县面积的12%。其他适宜性较低的区域占全县面积的88%,分布相对集中。不同乡镇对于聚落布局的适宜性差异显著。（2）那曲县现有的聚落空间占全县总面积的0.47%,为7594 hm²,其中分布在一般适宜及以上等级区的面积占聚落总面积的86.47%,而较不适宜、不适宜和禁建区内的聚落占比高达13.53%。那曲县聚落空间布局倾向于较高级别的适宜区,聚落用地适宜性条件较好的乡镇其布局合理性越高。那曲县局部聚落布局不合理的原因包括:缺失空间布局指引、村级行政区划欠佳、藏民对神山的宗教信仰和历史遗存的地域环境认同。（3）聚落的空间重构可推动生态移民、适度“村庄化”等要素的整合来实现。聚落的经济重构要建设由特色产业为基础的村镇系统、充分利用“点—轴”结构的辐射效应等结构要素的重组来实现。聚落的社会重构需要通过合理安排基础设施、增强藏族社会关系组织程度、提倡藏区优秀文化传承等优化功能的措施来实现。     

中美土壤元素背景值调查研究中数理统计方法运用及影响

土壤元素背景值是统计性的范围值,是评价土壤环境质量和制定土壤环境质量标准的重要参考依据,其因土壤母质、成因以及各种地球化学作用的影响而不同.通过分析20世纪60年代至90年代中美土壤元素背景值调查研究中数理统计方法的运用,发现当时受国内外学者对土壤元素含量及统计分析方法认识的局限,中美在土壤元素背景值研究中存在一些偏态分布被当作正态分布、对称剔除偏态分布的异常值和用平均值计算偏态分布背景值等问题,可能导致所得土壤元素背景值不能很好地代表区域背景情况.2007-2013年美国再次开展全国土壤调查和土壤元素背景值研究,对数理统计方法做出了改进和优化,主要包括:①用箱式图法分析距离中间50%数值较远的异常值;②针对对数分布形态也进行了分析;③用中位数和绝对中位偏差计算偏态分布的土壤元素背景值.在研究方法有了新的认识和发展的今天,建议中国优化土壤元素背景值数理统计研究方法,再次开展全国土壤元素背景含量调查工作,并从以下两个方面加以改进:①采用箱式图剔除异常值;②针对不同的频数分布形态计算相应的统计量作为土壤元素背景值.      

西安电视塔改造项目结构有限元分析

西安电视塔的装修改造,要求在塔楼、塔座增设部分钢梁、钢柱,而工程结构由于使用不当或任意改建引起的事故经常发生。为了保证结构的安全,为可靠性鉴定提供参考依据,并指导改造设计的实施,依据现行设计规范,采用多质点悬臂梁体系,用数值方法对西安电视塔主体结构进行了静力响应分析、反应谱分析,并考虑了二阶效应对结构的影响,得到内力结果。当考虑日照作用分析时,采用三维实体单元模型,计算温度变形,并考虑二阶效应对结构的影响。     

冀东油田污水处理工艺研究

冀东油田于2002年相继完成了两座联合站污水处理系统的改造扩建工程后,日处理能力均达到10000m3。2个污水处理系统的工艺基本相同,主要采用沉降隔油、过滤和生化处理等方法。处理后外排水水质指标全部达到国家GB8978-1996一级排放标准。经济效益显著,大幅降低了运行成本,一年即可为油田节约成本1670万元。同时,对运行中存在的外输污水中硫酸盐还原菌(SRB)含量超标以及药剂的匹配性和过滤罐性能不很稳定的问题提出了改进意见和建议。     

青海南部高原高寒草场退化机理及生态重建

在阐述青海南部高原草场退化现状的基础上,用系统的观点分析了草场退化的成因及机理,认为高原自然地理环境本身的脆弱性、自然灾害及不适当的人类活动是导致该地区草场退化的主导因子,并分析了它们之间的内在联系,探讨了对其进行恢复和重建的宏观策略,提出了用控制论及系统工程方法对其进行治理的若干对策及建议.     

TWO PRACTICAL APPROACHES FOR DETERMINING THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF RAINFALL DEPTH PERCENTILES1

ABSTRACT: A simple simulation type approach and a statistical method are proposed for determining the confidence interval of the T‐year frequency rainfall percentiles (or precipitation extremes) for generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. The former method is based on the Monte Carlo testing procedure. To generate realizations, the covariance structure of the three parameters of GEV is investigated using an observed information matrix of the likelihood function. For distributions with realistic parameters, the correlation between the location and the scale parameters is practically constant when the shape parameter varies around values close to its optimal value. The latter method is based on likelihood ratio statistics. In the case where the joint confidence surface for shape parameters and estimates is plotted with lines of best estimates, the region where the estimated best percentile value can be chosen as a possible estimate is part of the joint confidence surface. The projection of this bounded region on axis of percentile is defined as the effective confidence interval in this research. The use of this effective interval as the confidence interval of the percentile of T‐year frequency rainfall is particularly recommended because it is stable for T and it reflects variations in all three parameters of GEV appropriately.