Post-conflict health reconstruction: search for a policy

Despite increasing experience in health reconstruction in societies emerging from conflict, the policy basis for investing in the development of equitable and effective health systems in the wake of war remains unsettled. Consideration of post-conflict health reconstruction is almost entirely absent in donor policies on global health. Practically by default, health programmes are seen increasingly as an element of stabilisation and security interventions in the aftermath of armed conflict. That perspective, however, lacks an evidence base and can skew health programmes towards short-term security and stabilisation goals that have a marginal impact and violate the principles of equity, non-discrimination, and quality, which are central to sound health systems and public acceptance of them. A better approach is to ground policy in legitimacy, viewing health both as a core social institution and one that, if developed according to human rights principles, including equity, non-discrimination, participation and accountability, can advance the effectiveness and the quality of governance in the emerging state.     

基于相空间重构和独立分量分析的火灾预测

利用非线性动力学的相空间重构理论和独立分量分析,结合非线性支持向量回归,提出了火灾起数时间序列预测方法。首先用时间延迟法和独立分量分析重构系统的相空间来反映火灾起数时间序列的内在变化规律,然后再用非线性支持向量回归来构建预测模型。仿真结果表明该预测方法具有较高的预测精度。     

Quantifying the unreported and unaccounted domestic and foreign commercial catch of sharks and rays in Western Australia

Reliable catch information is scarce for most sharks and rays worldwide, with almost half of the stocks considered to be Data Deficient due to limited species-specific catch statistics. Western Australia (WA) hosts a diverse number of shark and ray species, some of which are considered to be threatened with extinction at a global level. Commercial catch statistics only account for shark and ray landings. The present study used the best available information to reconstruct unaccounted and unreported catches for 47 shark and ray taxa to better understand the impact of fishing. For some species, there was good agreement between reconstructed catches and reported landings, but overall reconstructed catches were 57% higher than those derived from official statistics alone, underestimating the actual extraction level for many species. The reconstructed catch time series provide the basis for the assessment of all species of sharks and rays captured in WA, including protected species that interact with commercial and recreational fisheries.Supplementary informationThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01495-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.     

基于Pc-Crash的车辆侧滑事故再现方法

为准确再现车辆侧滑事故,基于Pc-Crash软件,提出一种分步再现事故的方法。该方法首先仿真事故车辆侧滑运动,获得侧滑车辆碰撞前瞬间运动状态参数;然后定义新仿真以再现侧滑车辆与事故其他参与者的碰撞;重复此2步骤,以确保仿真中痕迹与事故中痕迹最相符合。最后就一例车辆侧滑后与过往车辆发生碰撞的事故,演示该分步再现方法各步骤的实现途径。结果显示,利用Pc-Crash软件分步再现车辆侧滑事故,能较为容易地控制再现过程,保证仿真中痕迹与现实情况的一致性。     

The Great East Japan Earthquake,tsunami, and nuclear meltdown: towards the (re)construction of a safe,sustainable, and compassionate society in Japan's shrinking regions

Japan's rural regions have been shrinking for the entire post-war period, and successive efforts to revitalise rural society have failed. This article examines whether the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, and the subsequent meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, present the Japanese state and society with a watershed opportunity to rethink regional revitalisation and national energy procurement strategies. The article begins by summarising the events of March and April 2011, examines possible approaches to the reconstruction of communities in the Tōhoku region, and critiques problems of governance in post-war Japan that the disaster reveals. It concludes by pulling together the information and analysis presented into a discussion of the prospects for achieving the three-point vision for a safe, sustainable, and compassionate society that Prime Minister Naoto Kan set the Reconstruction Design Council.     

水位调控法恢复富营养化水体沉水植物技术研究——以无锡五里湖为例

利用降低水位后引种水生植物(尤其是沉水植物),然后根据水生植物的成活率与长势,逐步提高水位的水位调控方法,成功地在无锡市五里湖的退渔还湖区域大大地提高了水生植物覆盖度,水生植物的多样性也明显提高。该方法具有操作简单、见效快、成本低廉的特点,值得在类似富营养化水体的生态环境治理中推广应用。     

行人与轿车正碰后卷绕型运动形态仿真研究*

为研究行人与轿车正碰后卷绕型运动形态规律以及行人损伤情况,基于PC Crash和MADYMO软件进行仿真分析。分析不同发动机罩倾斜程度对行人抛距的影响,以及不同车速、行人走向、前挡风玻璃倾角对行人头部、胸腔的损伤影响,最后通过CIDAS数据库中的3起真实案例进行验证。结果表明:分段抛距公式不仅能反映行人抛距变化趋势,而且在2个分段范围内均能较好地拟合实际抛距,平均误差为4.23%,实际案例验证的结果误差在5%以内,证明实验方法的准确性。