我国畜禽粪便污染的区域差异与发展趋势分析

随着我国畜禽养殖业的快速发展,畜禽生产所导致的粪便污染问题日趋严重,甚至威胁到农业可持续发展.本研究结合宏观统计数据和实地调研数据,对我国总体和各省2010年畜禽粪便排放和污染情况进行了分析,并通过中国农业可持续发展决策支持系统(CHINAGRO)对2020年我国总体和各省畜禽粪便排放和污染的发展趋势进行了预测分析.结果表明,2010年我国畜禽粪便排放总量为19.00亿t,形成污染的畜禽粪便量为2.27亿t,平均每公顷耕地的畜禽粪便污染量为1.86 t,我国东南地区的广东、福建等省是畜禽粪便污染较重的区域.模型预测结果表明,如果不进行政策干预,全国畜禽粪便总污染量将大幅增至2020年的2.98亿t.东部地区畜禽粪便污染将更为严重,中部和西部地区污染程度相对较低且增幅低于东部地区.建议通过税收和补贴等政策措施控制畜禽粪便的污染排放,鼓励畜牧业生产向中西部地区转移.     

亿元GDP死亡率与区域发展水平的相关性分析

为探讨亿元GDP死亡率与区域发展水平之间的关系,选择能够反映区域整体发展水平,又与安全生产密切相关的影响因素,通过统计年鉴获取大量数据的基础上,从时间和空间2个维度,采用SPSS数据统计软件对亿元GDP死亡率和13个定量影响因素、5个定性影响因素之间的Spearman相关系数进行计算,排除区域发展水平的极度差异,在总体趋势上,亿元GDP死亡率与各相关因素的相关性在时间和空间2个维度上保持较好的一致性。计算结果表明,各地区可从提高经济发展水平、优化产业结构、大力发展科学教育事业、提高医疗卫生水平和健全法制体系等方面降低亿元GDP死亡率,改善当地的安全生产水平,该结论能为各区域控制亿元GDP死亡率,对安全生产进行宏观调控提供科学依据。     

区域滑坡灾害地形地貌因子敏感性分析研究

为分析地形地貌与滑坡敏感性之间的关系,借助地理信息系统(GIS)空间分析技术和滑坡影响因子贡献率的数学方法,研究雅安市雨城区坡度坡向对滑坡的影响程度的大小。通过研究得到了每一区间的坡度和坡向对滑坡的贡献率,定量地分析了坡度、坡向对研究区域的滑坡发育的关系。研究结果表明,坡度20～30°区间的区域为滑坡最敏感的区域,坡向带90～120°区间是滑坡灾害最敏感的区域,但坡向带每一区域的贡献率差别不大。     

产业结构视角下的新疆区域经济差异分解研究

区域经济差异与产业结构有着密切的联系.从三次产业结构的视角,运用加权变异系数对1995年以来新疆区域经济差异进行产业分解.研究发现,1995-2009年新疆第二、第三产业的加权变异系数明显高于人均GDP加权变异系数,对总体经济差异起着明显的"上拉"作用.通过三次产业对总体差异的贡献分析发现,第二产业差异对新疆总体经济差异的年均贡献率达73.5%,表明第二产业差异是造成新疆总体差异的关键因素,提出了缩小新疆区域经济差异的对策建议.     

近年来中国边境贸易研究的问题与发展趋势

自古以来,边境贸易是我国对外经济交流的主要方式.近年来对我国边境研究较多,主要集中在我国边境贸易发展的历史总结、政策规范、边境贸易与区域经发展等方面,但对边境贸易与边境安全、边境贸易过程中跨境民族问题和我国边境贸易的优势等方面的研究较少.随着研究的不断深入,针对边境贸易出现了边境地区当地居民参与边境贸易过程、边境贸易与大尺度区域经济发展、"区位论"视角下的边境贸易等新动向.     

基于协调度与熵权法的绩效评价新方法

自人们意识到绩效评价的重要性以来,越来越多的研究集中于绩效评价的方法。以往的绩效评价侧重用数字表象进行评价,而忽略了政府、企业系统及其与社会经济发展之间的特性。基于此,根据既有的信息熵理论研究成果,提出了协调度与熵权法复合评价模型,并运用该模型对2009年度河北省区域创新绩效进行了实证分析,既科学、全面地衡量绩效情况,又便于政府、企业及其与社会经济发展之间的系统分析,是一种绩效评价方法的创新,具有一定的普适性和通用性。     

Estimation of Daily Streamflow of Southeastern Coastal Plain Watersheds by Combining Estimated Magnitude and Sequence

Commonly used methods to predict streamflow at ungauged watersheds implicitly predict streamflow magnitude and temporal sequence concurrently. An alternative approach that has not been fully explored is the conceptualization of streamflow as a composite of two separable components of magnitude and sequence, where each component is estimated separately and then combined. Magnitude is modeled using the flow duration curve (FDC), whereas sequence is modeled by transferring streamflow sequence of gauged watershed(s). This study tests the applicability of the approach on watersheds ranging in size from about 25‐7,226 km² in Southeastern Coastal Plain (U.S.) with substantial surface storage of wetlands. A 19‐point regionalized FDC is developed to estimate streamflow magnitude using the three most selected variables (drainage area, hydrologic soil index, and maximum 24‐h precipitation with a recurrence interval of 100 years) by a greedy‐heuristic search process. The results of validation on four watersheds (Trent River, North Carolina: 02092500; Satilla River, Georgia: 02226500; Black River, South Carolina: 02136000; and Coosawhatchie River, South Carolina: 02176500) yielded Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency values of 0.86‐0.98 for the predicted magnitude and 0.09‐0.84 for the predicted daily streamflow over a simulation period of 1960‐2010. The prediction accuracy of the method on two headwater watersheds at Santee Experimental Forest in coastal South Carolina was weak, but comparable to simulations by MIKE‐SHE.     

Informal network utilisation and water distribution in two districts in the Khorezm Province,Uzbekistan

This paper analyses informal networks and their utilisation during a period of water scarcity in an upstream and a downstream district in the Khorezm Province, Uzbekistan. The evaluation is based on an organisational theory approach on informal networks. Communication patterns between farm managers, district water departments and district governors in a year with a sufficient amount of water and in a year of water scarcity are compared with informal network structures. The analysis shows that in the year of water scarcity an informal network was utilised to receive water. The importance of the informal network increased with increasing experience and individual perception of water scarcity. The findings confirm the assumption that informal networks are utilised more frequently when formal networks fail or are not functional. The case study therefore confirms the importance of an informal network during a crisis.     

Between municipal and regional planning: the development of regional district heating systems in Stockholm from 1978 to 2010

District heating (DH) is an important part of the Swedish energy system and one of the most important climate measures at the municipal level. The Swedish planning system gives a large amount of power to municipalities, thus leaving the regional level weak. Despite this, the DH systems in Stockholm have developed into regional systems; how has this development occurred and what made it possible? Regional and municipal strategies concerning DH and energy from 1978 to 2010 have been studied through Regional plans and comprehensive plans. The conclusions show that the municipal DH systems have grown and become interconnected, thus fulfilling one of the most important regional strategies: to expand and interconnect the systems to be able to build combined heat and power plants. This is not entirely due to the regional strategies, however; the local importance of the system, economic reasons and supply security are other explanations. The study shows that regional importance generally has grown, and thus also the regional focus on DH. As environmental and climate issues have risen on the agenda, the importance of DH from the municipal perspective has become more evident, as well as a shift from supply orientation to more focus on energy efficiency.     

塔里木河干流流域区域开发与环境对策

区域开发的设计,目的在于实现资源开发和环境建设的协调发展。塔河流域具有光热资源丰富、土地资源开发潜力大、石油资源开发前景广阔等区域开发优势,同时存在水土资源不平衡、社会经济发展缓慢、科学技术水平落后、交通条件差、生态环境问题严重等区域开发的限制性因素。从塔河流域资源优势出发,针对当前区域开发的限制性因素,按照新疆经济发展对塔河流域的要求,选择“优势资源转换开发模式”为塔河流域开发战略模式。解决塔河流域生态环境问题,首先要使现有生态环境不再继续恶化,最低限度保护现有植被面积不再减少,即维护现有天然胡杨林29.8万公顷、天然灌木林111.33万公顷、天然草地90.38万公顷,在此基础上,恢复和改善下游绿色走廊的植被,约3.96万公顷。如果完成以上指标,必须确保生态用水,特别是下游段的生态用水,加强天然植被的抚育更新,并制定相应的政策、法规等。