2014年10月北京市4次典型空气重污染过程成因分析

采用数值模拟与观测资料相结合的方式,对2014年10月北京市4次典型空气重污染过程的大气环境背景、气象条件和形成原因进行了分析. 结果表明,京津冀区域稳定的气象条件是形成空气重污染的主要原因,4次重污染过程大气条件均不利于污染物扩散,表现为大气层结稳定,近地层逆温(平均逆温强度为2.26 ℃/100 m)明显,风速(平均值为1.52 m/s)小,相对湿度(平均值为80.75%)大. 在4次重污染过程中8—11日污染最重,ρ(PM_2.5)日均值平均为264 μg/m3,并且区域输送对北京贡献率最大,平均值为63.75%;24—25日污染程度次之,逆温最强,逆温强度达5.94 ℃/100 m;18—20日重污染中北京ρ(PM_2.5)高值(＞200 μg/m3)区主要集中在该市西北部地区;30—31日污染相对较轻,ρ(PM_2.5)日均值最高只有154 μg/m3. 数值模拟表明,在4次典型重污染过程中,来自南方(包括河北、河南和山西西部等地)的外来污染物输送对北京PM_2.5贡献较大,外来贡献率分别在42.36%~69.12%之间,同时北京本地也存在较强的二次无机盐及有机物转化过程.      

Strategic planning for sustainable tourism development in Poland

The aim of this article is to evaluate selected tourism development strategies in Poland, in the context of strategic planning, stakeholders’ participation, and sustainable development principles. A questionnaire evaluation of strategy (44 questions) was established and based on measurement scales developed and validated by other authors in earlier studies. The five authors of the study rated 37 tourism development strategies in 13 provinces, 11 cities, 5 counties, 6 municipalities, and 2 other areas. Analysis revealed that they implement paradigms of sustainable development of tourism to only a small extent. Definitely higher quality is documented for higher levels of administrative division. The highest rated domains of the tourism development strategy in the examined documents are Strategic Planning Indicators and Implementation, Monitoring, and Evaluation.     

京津冀一次污染过程的星地同步动态监测分析

京津冀地区大气污染监管逐渐走向区域联防联控模式,卫星遥感可实现大范围实时动态监测,地基监测能够获取精细的网点信息.结合卫星和地基数据,可对区域污染的生消过程进行三维立体的跟踪.本文通过综合分析卫星遥感数据、地面PM_(2.5)浓度数据、激光雷达垂直污染监测数据以及气象数据,分析了2018年3月8～10日京津冀区域污染的形成过程、传输路径、影响范围以及气象因子变化.结果发现,本次污染覆盖范围面积达20万km~2左右,区域内以四级中度污染为主,区域间的污染传输过程非常典型. 3月8～9日北京-保定偏南风频率为50%左右,冀南部分地区到达100%,在持续偏南风作用下,北京-保定一带空气质量由一级优迅速升至四级轻度污染,气溶胶光学厚度高值区由京津冀南部的邯郸-邢台西部山前推至北部燕山前. 3月10日该区域转以弱偏北风为主,湿度明显升高,京津冀南部形成污染辐合,污染重心南移至邯郸-邢台东部;午后,北京转偏东风,空气质量由东向西递次转好.从激光雷达垂直观测结果看,重污染期间北京地区污染层主要出现在1 000 m以下.近地面800 m以下,1 200～1 500 m多次出现双逆温层,且逆温强度高达4～7℃,非常不利于污染物垂直扩散.由此可见,在区域能源消耗和污染排放量依旧很大的背景下,一旦气象条件转差,很容易形成区域性重污染.     

海南与其他6个生态示范省的经济发展及区域可持续发展能力比较

建设生态省是实施区域可持续发展的一种有效组织形式。本文就国家环保总局批准的七个生态示范省的经济发展及区域可持续发展能力进行比较,发现七省的经济发展现状及区域可持续发展能力在全国31个地区中属于中上水平,均有创建生态省的本底条件,但区域可持续发展各方面的能力极不平衡,各省要从实际出发,扬长避短,因地制宜,探索具有本地特色的生态省建设的新路子。     

Efficient regional ozone control strategies for the eastern United States

When environmental regulatory bodies formulate control plans, it is incumbent upon them to try to achieve the stated goals in an economically efficient manner. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is presently developing regulations to limit the influence of transported ozone on areas that are having difficulty meeting the ambient air quality standard. EPA has proposed stringent control measures for emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in 22 states of the eastern US. The strategy would necessitate the use of selective catalytic reduction or similar high-performance technology on almost all major power plants in the region, as well as extensive controls on industrial sources. This paper suggests several alternative approaches that would achieve equal or better environmental improvement at lower cost. These include focusing control efforts on sources closer to the North-east Corridor, pushing controls on close-in sources to a higher level of technology performance, and relaxing the stringency of requirements for states remote from ozone problem areas. All the approaches examined are two to three times more cost-effective than EPA's proposed approach in the North-east Corridor.     

区域火灾风险评估模型研究的理论与实践

首先立足于风险研究这个大背景下,在理论上对风险的概念进行了比较分析。然后针对水灾的风险根据其研究与实践中的侧重点不同,分为“损失可能性”学派、“未来损失”学派以及“损失不确定性”三个学派。在此基础上,分析了水灾风险的不确定性,从而提出了易于概率论和可能性理论的水灾风险定义,并将此定义应用于区域水灾风险评估的模型中。最后,探讨了水灾风险评估研究的问题与对其未来的展望。     

中国科技人才资源区域差异与类型

中国科技人才资源的地区和部门分布具有明显的区域差异.在三大地带间、地区内和各省市间差异程度不同且有扩大趋势,在三个重要部门中配置也表现出明显的地域差异.根据科技人才资源赋存状况及部门配置的区位熵值,将各省市区分成5种类型:科技人才资源高度型、中高度型、中度型、中低度型、低度型,这些区域类型与我国的区域经济发展格局相适应.     

MAPPING REGIONAL PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURATION FREQUENCY ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: For regional precipitation frequency analyses, methods are needed to spatially interpolate or smooth point intensity duration frequency (IDF) estimates at gage sites for the purposes of visualization and estimation at ungaged sites. In this study to update IDF estimates for Michigan, the assumption is made that for practical purposes, the entire state may be treated as a homogeneous region in which annual maximum precipitation is identically distributed at each site apart from a site‐specific scaling factor, commonly known as the index flood. Several interpolation and smoothing techniques are evaluated for IDF estimation at ungaged sites, including trend surface analysis, thin plate splines, inverse distance weighting, and several kriging algorithms. Ordinary block kriging is recommended as a practical and objective method for smoothing the variability in the index flood values and developing isopluvial maps.     

大西南旅游资源的评价与开发

大西南的旅游资源丰富而独特，但开发程度低、经营粗放、发展整体性差、组合效益低．本文根据近年来的研究，从大西南的整体对其旅游资源进行分区及评价、并分析其开发的市场条件，提出了开发途径。     

模糊数学在四川省自然灾害区划中的应用

本文通过对四川省自然灾害分布规律的系统分析,提出其区划的原则和要求,并引入模糊聚类的方法,对四川省自然灾害进行分区划片,目的是为区域规划提供减灾的重点方向。