杭州富阳地区2015—2018年冬季不同天气形势下PM2.5传输路径和潜在源区分析

利用2015—2018年杭州市富阳地区国控站污染数据、自动站和GDAS气象资料及对海平面气压场进行天气分型的基础上,使用HYSPLIT模型、潜在源贡献因子（WPSCF）分析法和浓度权重轨迹（WCWT）分析法,研究富阳地区冬季污染现状及不同天气形势下PM_2.5的输送路径与潜在源区分布特征.结果表明,2015—2018年富阳地区冬季PM_2.5浓度持续较高且变化趋势不明显,污染区域输送问题不容忽视.通过天气分型得到该地区冬季主要受高压、高压前部、高压底部、L型高压、低压和低压前部6种天气形势影响,其中,高压和高压底部控制下PM_2.5浓度均值较高,分别为65 μg·m^-3和58 μg·m^-3.对各天气形势下气团轨迹聚类分析得到,高压和高压前部控制下污染气团主要来自山东、江苏等地,高压底部和L型高压控制下污染气团主要来自内蒙古、辽宁等地,低压和低压前部控制下污染气团主要来自浙江中部、东南部地区.不同天气形势下WPSCF和WCWT得到的分布特征类似,高压控制下潜在源区分布范围最广,位于浙江西南部、东北部、上海和江苏东南部地区,其次为高压底部控制,潜在源区位于浙江中东部、东北部和上海地区,高压前部、L型高压、低压和低压前部的潜在源区范围较小,基本位于浙江、江苏南部和上海等地.     

FROM FLOW TO FISH TO DOLLARS: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO WATER ALLOCATION1

This paper details a case study of economic and natural system responses to alternative water management policies in the Cache La Poudre River basin, Colorado, 1980–1994. The case study is presented to highlight the value and application of a conceptual integration of economic, salmonid population, physical habitat, and water allocation models. Five alternative regimes, all intended to increase low winter flows, were investigated. Habitat enhancements created by alternative regimes were translated to population responses and economic benefits. Analysis concluded that instream flows cannot compete on the northern Colorado water rental market; cooperative agreements offer an economically feasible way to enhance instream flows; and establishing an instream flow program on the Cache La Poudre River mainstem is a potentially profitable opportunity. The alliance of models is a dynamic multidisciplinary tool for use in professional settings and offers valuable insight for decision-making processes involved in water management.     

POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE GREAT PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: This paper reports on the current assessment of climate impacts on water resources, including aquatic ecosystems, agricultural demands, and water management, in the U.S. Great Plains. Climate change in the region may have profound effects on agricultural users, aquatic ecosystems, and urban and industrial users alike. In the central Great Plains Region, the potential impacts of climate changes include changes in winter snowfall and snow-melt, growing season rainfall amounts and intensities, minimum winter temperature, and summer time average temperature. Specifically, results from general circulation models indicate that both annual average temperatures and total annual precipitation will increase over the region. However, the seasonal patterns are not uniform. The combined effect of these changes in weather patterns and average seasonal climate will affect numerous sectors critical to the economic, social and ecological welfare of this region. Research is needed to better address the current competition among the water needs of agriculture, urban and industrial uses, and natural ecosystems, and then to look at potential changes. These diverse demands on water needs in this region compound the difficulty in managing water use and projecting the impact of climate changes among the various critical sectors in this region.     

A roadmap for the conservation of freshwater mussels in Europe

Europe has a long history of human pressure on freshwater ecosystems. As pressure continues to grow and new threats emerge, there is an urgent need for conservation of freshwater biodiversity and its ecosystem services. However, whilst some taxonomic groups, mainly vertebrates, have received a disproportionate amount of attention and funds, other groups remain largely off the public and scientific radar. Freshwater mussels (Bivalvia, Unionida) are an alarming example of this conservation bias and here we point out six conceptual areas that need immediate and long-term attention: knowledge, threats, socioeconomics, conservation, governance and education. The proposed roadmap aims to advance research, policy and education by identifying the most pressing priorities for the short- and long-term conservation of freshwater mussels across Europe.     

Metrics for quantifying how much different threats contribute to red lists of species and ecosystems

Red lists are a crucial tool for the management of threatened species and ecosystems. Among the information red lists provide, the threats affecting the listed species or ecosystem, such as pollution or hunting, are of special relevance. This information can be used to quantify the relative contribution of different threat factors to biodiversity loss by disaggregating the cumulative extinction risk across species into components that can be attributed to certain threats. We devised and compared 3 metrics that accomplish this and may be used as indicators. The first metric calculates the portion of the temporal change in red list index (RLI) values that is caused by each threat. The second metric attributes the deviation of an RLI value from its reference value to different threats. The third metric uses extinction probabilities that are inferred from red list categories to estimate the contribution of a threat to the expected loss of species or ecosystems within 50 years. We used data from Norwegian Red Lists to test and evaluate these metrics. The first metric captured only a minor portion of the biodiversity loss caused by threats because it ignores species whose red list category does not change. Management authorities will often be interested in the contribution of a given threat to the total deviation from the optimal state. This was measured by the remaining metrics. The second metric was best suited for comparisons across countries or taxonomic groups. The third metric conveyed the same information but uses numbers of species or ecosystem as its unit, which is likely more intuitive to lay people and may be preferred when communicating with stakeholders or the general public.     

关于影响易损性分析结果的区域因素研究——以福建为例

以福建省震害快速评估系统为依托,以分析处理现场实际调查数据为基础,提出了主要影响易损性分析结果的四个区域因素及其影响指数值、区域综合指数值,提供了各分区的划分依据、各分区影响指数值的评定标准以及区域综合指数值的计算方法,为合理应用不同地区之间的易损性矩阵或易损性曲线提供了参考依据。     

塔里木河干流流域区域开发与环境对策

区域开发的设计,目的在于实现资源开发和环境建设的协调发展。塔河流域具有光热资源丰富、土地资源开发潜力大、石油资源开发前景广阔等区域开发优势,同时存在水土资源不平衡、社会经济发展缓慢、科学技术水平落后、交通条件差、生态环境问题严重等区域开发的限制性因素。从塔河流域资源优势出发,针对当前区域开发的限制性因素,按照新疆经济发展对塔河流域的要求,选择“优势资源转换开发模式”为塔河流域开发战略模式。解决塔河流域生态环境问题,首先要使现有生态环境不再继续恶化,最低限度保护现有植被面积不再减少,即维护现有天然胡杨林29.8万公顷、天然灌木林111.33万公顷、天然草地90.38万公顷,在此基础上,恢复和改善下游绿色走廊的植被,约3.96万公顷。如果完成以上指标,必须确保生态用水,特别是下游段的生态用水,加强天然植被的抚育更新,并制定相应的政策、法规等。     

Global Radioactive Contamination Background in Terrestrial Ecosystems 13 Years after the Chernobyl Accident

The contents of ¹³⁷Cs in the soil, plant, and animal samples collected in the ecosystems of protected areas from the White Sea to the Black Sea in 1999 slightly differ from those in the period between 1980 and 1984. As a result of global fallout after the Chernobyl accident, the content of radioactive cesium in the soil has increased only on the territory of the Biological Station of Moscow State University at the White Sea, whereas that in the litter and plants has increased in virtually all areas studied. The isotope content in animals is actually equal to that recorded between 1980 and 1984. The mobility of ¹³⁷Cs in the soil–plant link has increased, which may be due to fallout after the accident. The duration of a complete radionuclide cycle in ecosystems decreases from 10 half-life periods in northern regions to 2.5 half-life periods in the southern regions. The Chernobyl disaster has caused no significant changes in the global radioactive background in the European part of the Russian Federation.     

广东省区域经济差距变动的实证研究

改革开放以来，伴随着广东省经济的迅速崛起，其省内地区间的经济差距也发生显著的变化。本文从广东全省总体差距、地带间差距、地带内差距三个角度对广东省内区域经济差距的变动进行分析，发现除地带内差距变化不大之外，全省总体差距与地带间差距均明显扩大，呈现出“贫者越贫、富者越富”的“马太效应”。     

沈阳市苏家屯区区域噪声管理措施探讨

统计2002年至2006年沈阳市苏家屯区区域噪声、功能区噪声、噪声源单位状况,对苏家屯区区域噪声污染现状进行分析,找出目前沈阳市苏家屯区对居民生活影响严重的几类区域噪声及噪声污染最严重的噪声来源。分析了苏家屯区几年来噪声治理及管理中存在的问题,并针对噪声管理存在的问题提出更加合理的噪声管理措施。