浅议当前的大气环境安全问题及其解决途径

大气环境安全是国家安全的重要组成部分。随着人类改造自然能力的飞速提高,人类活动对大气环境产生的负面影响也越来越大,大气环境问题日益成为制约人类社会可持续发展的重要因素。当前,大气环境不仅存在着酸雨污染、温室效应、臭氧层空洞等传统的安全危害,还面临着人为破坏活动、局部战争和地区冲突、大气污染突发事故等新的安全威胁和挑战。在对当前大气环境安全问题及其特点进行分析的基础上,从国家政策调整、区域间相互协作、公众参与等几个方面简要探讨了这些问题的解决途径。     

Quantification of net primary production of Chinese forest ecosystems with spatial statistical approaches

Net primary production (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems provides food, fiber, construction materials, and energy to humans. Its demand is likely to increase substantially in this century due to rising population and biofuel uses. Assessing national forest NPP is of importance to best use forest resources in China. To date, most estimates of NPP are based on process-based ecosystem modeling, forestry inventory, and satellite observations. There are little efforts in using spatial statistical approaches while large datasets of in-situ observed NPP are available for Chinese forest ecosystems. Here we use the surveyed forest NPP and ecological data at 1,266 sites, the data of satellite forest coverage, and the information of climate and topography to estimate Chinese forest NPP and their associated uncertainties with two geospatial statistical approaches. We estimate that the Chinese forest and woodland ecosystems have total NPP of 1,325 ± 102 and 1,258 ± 186 Tg C year⁻¹ in 1.57 million km² forests with a regression method and a kriging method, respectively. These estimates are higher than the satellite-based estimate of 1,034 Tg C year⁻¹ and almost double the estimate of 778 Tg C year⁻¹ using a process-based terrestrial ecosystem model. Cross-validation suggests that the estimates with the kriging method are more accurate. Our developed geospatial statistical models could be alternative tools to provide national-level NPP estimates to better use Chinese forest resources.     

基于BEPS生态模型对亚洲东部地区蒸散量的模拟

气候变化和人类活动的加剧导致亚洲东部地区陆地生态系统的碳水循环过程发生显著的变化,成为全球变化研究最关注的对象之一。实际蒸散(ET)是陆地生态系统碳水循环的重要组成部分,但对该地区ET特征的研究尚不够深入。论文利用遥感、气象和土壤等资料驱动生态过程模型BEPS对亚洲东部地区1982—2006年间的ET进行了模拟分析。利用6个站的通量实测数据验证表明,BEPS模型能够解释ET的81.23%的年变化和86.4%的10 d变化。模拟结果表明:亚洲东部的ET呈现出从东南向西北和西南沙漠地区逐渐减少的分布特征,最小值位于中国的西北沙漠地区;ET与降水量之比从东南和东北地区向西北内陆和西南沙漠地区逐渐增加,其中在中国长江以南的亚洲东部地区,平均值为0.4,而在沙漠地区接近1.0。在1982至2006年期间,研究区年ET总量的平均值为12 045×109m3/a,其中,中国、泛东南亚和印度的ET总量占整个研究区的62.4%;研究区的单位面积ET均值为401 mm/a,在泛东南亚地区最大(1100 mm/a),在蒙古最小(134 mm/a)。在所有的地表覆盖类型中,常绿阔叶林的ET总量和平均值都为最大,城镇地区的ET总量和平均值都为最小。研究区的ET总量呈增加趋势,草地、稀树草原、裸地和城镇的ET明显上升,其它地表覆盖类型的ET变化不明显。     

Lipid peroxidation rates in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Taraxacum officinale</Emphasis> Wigg. and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Vicia cracca</Emphasis> L. from biotopes with different levels of soil pollution with heavy metals

The rates of lipid peroxidation (LPO) have been studied in Taraxacum officinale Wigg. (Asteraceae) and Vicia cracca L. (Fabaceae) from urban ecosystems with different levels of soil pollution with heavy metals (HMs), including Pb, Zn, Cu, and Cr. The former species responds to the increased HM contents by intensification of LPO processes, with their parameters correlating with the concentrations of Pb, Zn, and Cu in the soil. In the latter species from the same biotopes, conversely, LPO homeostasis remains actually undisturbed.     

2008奥运和后奥运时段北京大气颗粒物质量浓度和数浓度比对研究

为探索奥运和后奥运时段北京地区大气颗粒物质量浓度和数浓度变化规律及其主要影响因素,于2008-08-08～2008-10-07期间,在中国科学院大气物理研究所325 m气象观测塔附近的办公楼楼顶使用微量振荡天平（TEOM）和空气动力学粒谱仪（APS）在线实时测量颗粒物质量浓度和数浓度,同时结合地面气象资料和HYSPLIT轨迹模式对颗粒物的来源和传输过程进行了探讨. 结果表明,奥运期间北京大气颗粒物粗细粒子质量浓度（PM_2.5～10和PM_2.5）平均值分别为（23.1±1.6） μg·m^-3和（55.5±7.3）μg·m^-3,比非奥运时期分别降低18.2%和16.0%,比非源控制时期分别降低22.3%和18.0%;而奥运期间粗细粒子数浓度（PN_2.5～10和PN_0.5～2.5）平均值分别为（15±1）个·cm^-3和（3138±567）个·cm^-3,比非奥运时期分别降低23.4%和27.5%,比非源控制时期分别降低29.5%和34.3%. 观测期间风速、相对湿度和前1 d的降水与颗粒物质量浓度和数浓度存在显著线性关系,逐步回归分析结果显示,风速和相对湿度可以解释细粒子质量浓度和数浓度变化的42%和53%,而风速和前1 d的降雨则可以解释粗粒子质量浓度和数浓度变化的21%和39%;观测期间北京大气颗粒物主要受保定、石家庄等偏南地区输送的影响,偏南弱气流使北京大气细粒子质量浓度和数浓度迅速增加,而偏北强气流使区域大气粗细粒子得到彻底清除,体现了北京地区大气粗粒子受局地排放控制而细粒子受区域污染输送的特征. 对比观测期间颗粒物累积清除的2次典型过程发现,气象因素影响颗粒物浓度值波动,而局地源排放减少和区域输送减弱则使颗粒物粗细粒子浓度显著降低,北京及周边省（市、区）协同减排是保障奥运期间优质空气质量的主要原因.     

区域生态安全的组合权重评价模型

为了更准确合理地确定区域生态安全评价的指标权重,利用层次分析法求得主观权重,利用变异系数法求得客观权重,再用最小相对信息熵原理将它们合并为组合权重.结合“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)”模型框架,建立了指标体系和评价模型,分别计算3种权重下的生态安全指数.结果表明,使用组合权重的计算结果最符合实际状况.2010年兰州新区的生态安全综合指数为0.615 9,2015年为0.519 4,2020年为0.484 1,分别处于较安全、临界安全和临界安全状态.这表明当地生态安全状况有恶化趋势,新区应大力发展循环经济,推进清洁生产,加大环境污染防治力度,从而保障生态安全,促进经济社会可持续发展.     

雷电灾害风险评估系统模型与应用

根据IEC62305—2010的雷电灾害风险评估原理和方法,结合灾害学、模糊数学等理论,构建了单体风险评估和区域风险评估模型,分析了软件实现平台的设计和实现并介绍了相关平台模块主要功能。在应用中着重介绍了区域风险评估模型利用的相关技术和理论算法,并举例对某区域相关风险因子选取、评估过程、评估结论予以展现,结果表明区域雷电灾害风险不仅取决于自然闪电,还与孕灾环境、承灾体脆弱性和抗灾恢复能力相关。最后利用COM组件技术实现评估报告的自动化生成。     

Aquatic ecological health assessment of Shaying River Basin based on indices of physico-chemistry and aquatic organisms北大核心CSCD

With a variety of ecosystem services, river ecosystem plays an important role in the process of human society development. On the other hand, health condition of most aquatic ecosystems is seriously threatened by human activities. Restoring and maintaining a healthy ecosystem has already become a vital goal of river management. As a basis of river management, river health assessment is therefore particularly important. Based on indices of physics, chemistry and aquatic organisms, this research tried to establish a comprehensive evaluation system of aquatic ecological health suitable for the situation of Shaying River Basin. The system included 6 factors including riparian zone, river morphology, nutrients, oxygen balance, periphyton and benthic macroinvertebrates, which were defined into 19 indices reflecting the aquatic ecological health from different aspects. The assessment results indicated that the health condition of overall basin was normal, varying among different parts of the region, with Shahe River, Lihe River and Beiru River in the upper part sub-healthy, and Jialu River in the same part sub-sick. The middle region was generally in normal or sub-sick level; the health condition of the lower part was comparatively better due to a good condition. Within the indices, the nutrients and benthic macroinvertebrates were the major constraining factors to the health condition of Shaying River Basin for their poor health condition. The health conditions showed significant differences among the rivers (P < 0.01), with Jialu River being the worst. The result indicated that the aquatic ecological health of Shaying River Basin is affected by many factors, with urban and industrial sewage being the main ones, And that different protective measures should be employed for rivers of different conditions. The result can provide theoretical basis for the ecological restoration of Shaying River Basin and reasonable exploitation and conservation of the water resource of the whole Huaihe River Basin.     

Development and Evaluation of Bankfull Hydraulic Geometry Relationships for the Physiographic Regions of the United States

Bankfull hydraulic geometry relationships are used to estimate channel dimensions for streamflow simulation models, which require channel geometry data as input parameters. Often, one nationwide curve is used across the entire United States (U.S.) (e.g., in Soil and Water Assessment Tool), even though studies have shown that the use of regional curves can improve the reliability of predictions considerably. In this study, regional regression equations predicting bankfull width, depth, and cross‐sectional area as a function of drainage area are developed for the Physiographic Divisions and Provinces of the U.S. and compared to a nationwide equation. Results show that the regional curves at division level are more reliable than the nationwide curve. Reliability of the curves depends largely on the number of observations per region and how well the sample represents the population. Regional regression equations at province level yield even better results than the division‐level models, but because of small sample sizes, the development of meaningful regression models is not possible in some provinces. Results also show that drainage area is a less reliable predictor of bankfull channel dimensions than bankfull discharge. It is likely that the regional curves can be improved using multiple regression models to incorporate additional explanatory variables.     

污染源减排时刻和减排比例对北京市PM_(2.5)浓度的影响

利用Model-3/CMAQ及京津冀地区高分辨率排放源清单,选取文献[19]中污染峰值当天启动50%污染源削减方案的同时,进一步设置了3种污染源控制方案(峰值当天启动75%源削减;峰值日前1d、2d开始启动25%源削减),比较了峰值日前启动适量减排与峰值日当天启动大幅度减排的效果差异.结果表明:污染峰值当天启动50%、75%减排时,北京市PM2.5浓度下降率分布不均匀,高值区集中于PM2.5浓度高值区,减排后PM2.5浓度分布较减排前均匀.提前1~2d启动25%源削减时,峰值日北京市PM2.5浓度整体下降.城、郊PM2.5下降率均表现为当天减排50%小于提前1d开始减排25%;当天启动减排提高到75%时,城区PM2.5下降率大于提前2d启动25%减排,郊区表现为峰值前2d启动25%削减优于当天减排75%.将峰值前1d、2d启动25%减排分别与当天启动50%、75%减排时北京市峰值日PM2.5浓度下降率相减,北京市绝大部分区域下降率差值为正;峰值前1d、2d启动25%减排分别比峰值日启动50%、75%减排时北京市平均PM2.5多下降4.7μg/m3(6%)、2.9μg/m3(4%).综上所述,在污染峰值来临之前采取适量减排较污染当天才启动大幅度减排更有利于北京市整体空气质量达标.