用图像识别方法确定福建地震发生的相对概率

在地震危险性分析中,潜在震源区地震活动性参数的确定是关键的一环。为了不低估大地震的影响,恰如基分地将地震年平均发生率分配到带内各个潜在震源之内,准确确定地震带内发生Mj档震级的地震落在第i 个潜在震源区的概率是关键的一步。本文采用图像识别方法确定地震发生的相对概率,可以较客观地反映地震的时、空不均匀性,准确地确定地震带内发生Mj档震级的地震落在第i个潜在震源区的概率。     

环境规制相对力度变化对FDI的影响分析

本文利用1995-2007年间41个投资来源国和地区的数据,把41个投资来源国和地区分为25个发达国家与16个发展中国家(地区)两类,重点研究中国环境规制相对力度的变化对FDI的影响,并考察了借贷成本、双边贸易关系、经济发展水平的相似性等影响因素,运用面板数据进行中国环境规制相对力度的变化对FDI的影响的实证检验,为中国选择FDI的类型提供理论依据.本文的研究结论表明;中国——相对于投资来源国——环境规制相对力度越严格,来自发展中国家(地区)的FDI将减少;而来自发达国家的FDI并不受影响.产生这一结果的原因在于,不同外商直接投资来源国企业环保技术水平的差异导致其对环境规制的敏感程度不同.在上述结论的基础上,论文对中国选择FDI的类型从外资的来源结构、产业结构、环境技术三个方面提出了相应的政策建议.     

区域经济空间分异及其演变分析研究——以浙江省为例

区域经济空间分异是伴随区域经济增长而产生的,是区域经济空间结构研究中的重要内容之一。在理论研究的基础上分析了区域经济空间分异产生的原因是受到区域空间结构的影响,总结了区域经济空间分异的现象表征主要体现在绝对差异、相对差异和经济重心3个方面,并对这3个方面的测度方法进行了研究总结,构建了区域经济空间分异的测度体系。在此基础上,以浙江省作为实证研究对象,以各县域GDP为经济发展水平的衡量指标,综合运用数理统计方法和GIS方法,对1988~2008年浙江省区域经济空间分异的情况做了定量分析。实证研究结果表明浙江省区域经济差距呈现台阶式扩大,主要由富裕地区引起,并且经济重心在不断转移。结果与1988~2008年浙江省的实际发展情况较为吻合,表明该测度分析体系具有一定的科学合理,在未来类似研究中值得继续推广。     

Bed Stability and Sedimentation Associated With Human Disturbances in Pacific Northwest Streams1

Abstract: To evaluate anthropogenic sedimentation in United States (U.S.) Pacific Northwest coastal streams, we applied an index of relative bed stability (LRBS*) to summer low flow survey data collected using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program field methods in a probability sample of 101 wadeable stream reaches. LRBS* is the log of the ratio of bed surface geometric mean particle diameter (D_gm) to critical diameter (D*_cbf) at bankfull flow, based on a modified Shield’s criterion for incipient motion. We used a formulation of LRBS* that explicitly accounts for reductions in bed shear stress that result from channel form roughness due to pools and wood. LRBS* ranged from ?1.9 to +0.5 in streams within the lower quartile of human riparian and basin disturbance, and was substantially lower (?4.2 to ?1.1) in streams within the upper quartile of human disturbance. Modeling results suggest that the expected range of LRBS* in streams without human disturbances in this region might be generally between ?0.7 and +0.5 in either sedimentary or volcanic lithology. However, streams draining relatively soft, erodible sedimentary lithology showed greater reductions in LRBS* associated with disturbance than did those having harder, more resistant volcanic (basalt) lithology with similar levels of basin and riparian disturbance. At any given level of disturbance, smaller streams had lower LRBS* than those with larger drainages. In sedimentary lithology (sandstone and siltstone), high‐gradient streams had higher LRBS* than did low‐gradient streams of the same size and level of human disturbance. High gradient streams in volcanic lithology, in contrast, had lower LRBS* than low‐gradient streams of similar size and disturbance. Correlations between D_gm and land disturbance were stronger than those observed between D*_cbf and land disturbance. This pattern suggests that land use has augmented sediment supplies and increased streambed fine sediments in the most disturbed streams. However, we also show evidence that some of the apparent reductions in LRBS*, particularly in steep streams draining small volcanic drainages, may have resulted in part from anthropogenic increases in bed shear stress. The synoptic survey methods and designs we use appear adequate to evaluate regional patterns in bed stability and sedimentation and their general relationship to human disturbances. More precise field measurements of channel slope, cross‐section geometry, and bed surface particle size would be required to use LRBS* in applications requiring a higher degree of accuracy and precision, such as site‐specific assessments at individual streams.     

基于EKC的全面小康中国与发达国家环境质量比较

以2020年全面建成小康社会目标为依据,比较了我国2020年与主要发达国家同等经济水平阶段在能源消耗、大气环境、水环境等方面的差距。研究发现:主要发达国家环境质量拐点出现在20世纪70年代末到80年代初,人均GDP在1.4万~1.5万美元左右。人均GDP在1.1万~1.2万美元阶段时,我国大气污染物排放强度低于发达国家,但大气环境质量差于发达国家;主要水污染排放量高于主要发达国家,但水环境质量基本可达到发达国家同期水平。建议要正确认识环境与经济之间的EKC曲线关系,制定具有中国特色的环境问题解决路线图,提出具有阶段性、差异化、适度超前的环境质量目标。     

茶园土壤速效磷乡镇尺度下空间异质性对比分析——以江浙地区优质名茶种植区为例

土壤中磷素的含量对土壤肥力和茶叶品质起着至关重要的作用,探讨土壤磷素含量的空间分布特征及其影响因素,可以为茶园管理和茶叶品质的提升提供理论指导。以江苏省东山镇和浙江省溪龙乡两个优质名茶种植区为例,在遥感影像和DEM数据的基础上,应用地统计学方法,对比研究了两个茶园土壤速效磷含量的空间异质性特征。结果表明:(1)按土壤肥力等级标准,东山镇和溪龙乡速效磷含量的平均水平均较高,利于茶叶生长;(2)东山镇和溪龙乡速效磷含量的变异系数分别为0.46和0.52,均属于中等强度变异;(3)空间插值结果显示,东山镇和溪龙乡速效磷在空间上都具有相连成片的特征,但东山镇速效磷呈阶梯状分布特征,而溪龙乡速效磷则呈辐射状分布特征;(4)东山镇和溪龙乡速效磷的块基比值分别为0.343和0.142,表明溪龙乡速效磷受随机性因素的影响较东山镇的小,而受结构性因素的影响较东山镇的大。     

Nature of the field-to-field distribution of pesticide residues

The supervised trial datasets (1950), consisting of a minimum of five residue values and selected by the experts of FAO/WHO Joint Meeting on Pesticide Residues for recommending maximum residue levels between 1997 and 2011, were evaluated to obtain information on the typical spread of residue values in individual datasets. The typical relative standard deviation, CV, of field-to-field variation of pesticide residues was about 80%. The spread of residues in datasets is independent from the chemical structure of pesticides, residue level, pre-harvest interval and number of values in the datasets. The CV ranges within the Codex commodity groups and between groups overlapped and their difference were not statistically significant. The number of residues below the limit of quantification (LOQ) affects the CV at various extents depending on the ratio of LOQ/R _mean. The combined uncertainty of the highest residue in a dataset significantly affects the CV of the dataset. The lowest and intermediate ones have less influence. The residues in different fields receiving the same treatment vary within large range: 55%, 72%, 78%, 86% and 89% of the 25,766 residues values were, respectively, within 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 times the median value of the corresponding dataset.     

Environmental impact assessment of infrastructure projects: a governance perspective

Environmental impact assessment (EIA) has been promoted as an instrument for preventive environmental management in construction projects, but its performance in safeguarding the environment through influencing project decision-making is questioned. This paper probes the underlying reasons from a governance perspective as an important supplement to the regulatory and technical perspectives. A framework, with process integration, professional governance, and public engagement being its key components, is proposed to analyze the governance arrangements that enable or inhibit the effective functioning of EIA, based on which a comparative study of three infrastructure projects in China, the United States and Finland was conducted. The results reveal that, while the level of process integration and public engagement of EIA determines the degree to which EIA influences project decisions, it is the professional governance that controls the accountability of EIA. The paper has implications on institutionally where efforts should be directed to improve the performance of EIA.     

不同氮素浓度与空间条件下青萍生长特征

以西部地区优势浮萍品种青萍为实验对象,研究了它在不同总氮(TN)初始浓度和空间条件下的生长特征。结果表明,在表面积为95 cm2,TN初始浓度为0、1、2、3 mg/L的条件下,青萍的生长能较好地服从经典生长模型,对数生长阶段的相对生长速率(RGR)随TN浓度的增长而线性增长,分别为0.10、0.11、0.13、0.13 d-1。在TN浓度为10 mg/L,表面积为95、130和230 cm2的条件下,青萍的生长能较好地服从Logistic生长模型,其环境最大承载量和对数生长阶段的RGR分别为1 899、2 101和1 962 g/m2以及0.21、0.21和0.20 d-1。     

人因失误与人不安全行为相关原理的分析与探讨

从人因失误的机理、分类和特点等方面,对人因失误与人不安全行为间的相关原理进行系统的对比分析与探讨,笔者认为,应从安全教育、技术培训、人机系统设计等方面预防人因失误,从建立和维持操作者对安全工作的兴趣、作业标准化、安全管理等方面来控制人的不安全行为。以煤矿斜井提升事故为例,说明人因失误与人不安全行为的判定原则和方法,从而为预防、控制人因事故提供理论依据。