Extension of EU Emissions Trading Scheme to Other Sectors and Gases: Consequences for Uncertainty of Total Tradable Amount

Emissions trading in the European Union (EU), covering the least uncertain emission sources of greenhouse gas emission inventories (CO₂ from combustion and selected industrial processes in large installations), began in 2005. During the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012), the emissions trading between Parties to the Protocol will cover all greenhouse gases (CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF₆) and sectors (energy, industry, agriculture, waste, and selected land-use activities) included in the Protocol. In this paper, we estimate the uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes based on uncertainties in corresponding inventories. According to the results, uncertainty in emissions from the EU15 and the EU25 included in the first phase of the EU emissions trading scheme (2005–2007) is ±3% (at 95% confidence interval relative to the mean value). If the trading were extended to CH₄ and N₂O, in addition to CO₂, but no new emissions sectors were included, the tradable amount of emissions would increase by only 2% and the uncertainty in the emissions would range from −4 to +8%. Finally, uncertainty in emissions included in emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol was estimated to vary from −6 to +21%. Inclusion of removals from forest-related activities under the Kyoto Protocol did not notably affect uncertainty, as the volume of these removals is estimated to be small.     

The Impact of Uncertainty on Banking Behavior: Evidence from the US Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Allowance Trading Program

In this paper, we study empirically whether uncertainty has an influence on trade in the US sulfur dioxide allowances market. In particular, we investigate the role of uncertainty on banking behavior. To do this, we introduce a tractable, structural model of trading permits under uncertainty. The model establishes a relation between banking behavior and risk preferences, especially prudence in the Kimball (1990) sense. We then test this model using data on allowances, for utilities submitted to the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Acid Rain Program, carried over from one year to the next. Evidence is found of imprudence, namely, utilities bank permits in order to favor higher profits. Another finding is that larger utilities do not adopt behavior significantly different from that of smaller ones. This paper was presented at the “International Workshop on Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Verification, Compliance & Trading” in Warsaw, Poland, September 2004, under the title “Portfolio Management of Emissions Permits and Prudence Behavior.”     

Exposure Programme on Atmospheric Corrosion Effects of Acidifying Pollutants in Tropical and Subtropical Climates

Many national exposure programmes have been performed in tropical and subtropical climates during the last 50 years. However, ambitious programmes involving more than a few countries are scarce. In this paper a recently formed network of test sites is described involving 12 test sites in Asia (India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and China including Hong Kong) and four test sites in Africa (South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe). This effort is part of the 2001–2004 Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA) funded Programme on Regional Air Pollution in Developing Countries (RAPIDC). Corrosion attack after one (2002–2003) year of exposure (carbon steel, zinc, copper, limestone and paint coated steel) are presented together with environmental data (SO₂, NO₂, HNO₃, O₃, particles, amount and pH of precipitation, temperature and relative humidity) for all the test sites. The obtained corrosion values are substantially higher than expected for limestone, higher than expected for carbon steel and lower than expected for zinc compared to values calculated using the best available dose–response functions.     

Compliance and Emissions Trading under the Kyoto Protocol: Rules for Uncertain Inventories

A solution is proposed for proving compliance with emission targets and for emissions trading in the event of uncertainties in reported emission inventories. The solution is based on the undershooting concept, from which the mathematical conditions for both proving compliance with a risk α and calculating effective emissions for trading are derived. Based on the reported emission units, the number of permits granted is reduced in proportion to the uncertainty in the inventory. A country whose inventory has higher uncertainty is thereby allotted fewer permits than a country with the same inventory but smaller uncertainty.     

用改性活性碳纤维去除CO2原料气中的H2S

采用固定床动态吸附实验，用改性活性碳纤维（ACF）吸附去除CO2原料气中的H2S。通过改变改性剂种类、反应温度和原料气中CO2浓度，找出用改性ACF去除CO2原料气中H2S的规律。实验结果表明：常温下，可用NaON改性的ACF来消除CO2的酸性对去除H2S的不利影响；随着反应温度的升高，CO2与ACF形成的C（O＊）中间产物增多，CO2的存在有利于改性ACF去除H2S；而当反应温度过高时，CO2与ACF形成的C（O＊）中间产物发生分解，导致ACF碳化，不利于H2S的吸附去除。     

军用浸渍活性炭中银含量测定方法——火焰原子吸收分光光度法

本研究建立了一种用空气-乙炔火焰原子吸收分光光度法测定浸渍活性炭中银含量的分析方法，对酸介质浓度、共存元素的干扰进行了探讨，在0—1．0ml沪范围内，银含量与吸光度呈线性关系，相关系数为0．9999。对09型浸渍活性炭标准物质进行测定，测定结果的相对标准偏差为0．191％（n=10），加标回收率为97．5％-101．4％。     

纳米TiO2治理室内甲醛的实验研究

利用纳米材料TiO2对室内甲醛进行了治理研究。测定了TiO2在不同吸附剂量、吸附时间时的吸附效率、穿透时间和吸附容量。将TiO2、活性炭对甲醛的吸附效果进行了对比，结果表明，纳米材料TiO2对甲醛的吸附率比相同质量的活性炭高10％-15％；当吸附时间为13h时，TiO2对甲醛的吸附量比活性炭高28％；穿透时间比活性炭长2h。利用SEM图谱进行了机理分析。     

DIN Retention‐Transport Through Four Hydrologically Connected Zones in a Headwater Catchment of the Upper Mississippi River1

Abstract: Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) retention‐transport through a headwater catchment was synthesized from studies encompassing four distinct hydrologic zones of the Shingobee River Headwaters near the origin of the Mississippi River. The hydrologic zones included: (1) hillslope ground water (ridge to bankside riparian); (2) alluvial riparian ground water; (3) ground water discharged through subchannel sediments (hyporheic zone); and (4) channel surface water. During subsurface hillslope transport through Zone 1, DIN, primarily nitrate, decreased from ～3 mg‐N/l to <0.1 mg‐N/l. Ambient seasonal nitrate:chloride ratios in hillslope flow paths indicated both dilution and biotic processing caused nitrate loss. Biologically available organic carbon controlled biotic nitrate retention during hillslope transport. In the alluvial riparian zone (Zone 2) biologically available organic carbon controlled nitrate depletion although processing of both ambient and amended nitrate was faster during the summer than winter. In the hyporheic zone (Zone 3) and stream surface water (Zone 4) DIN retention was primarily controlled by temperature. Perfusion core studies using hyporheic sediment indicated sufficient organic carbon in bed sediments to retain ground water DIN via coupled nitrification‐denitrification. Numerical simulations of seasonal hyporheic sediment nitrification‐denitrification rates from perfusion cores adequately predicted surface water ammonium but not nitrate when compared to 5 years of monthly field data (1989‐93). Mass balance studies in stream surface water indicated proportionally higher summer than winter N retention. Watershed DIN retention was effective during summer under the current land use of intermittently grazed pasture. However, more intensive land use such as row crop agriculture would decrease nitrate retention efficiency and increase loads to surface water. Understanding DIN retention capacity throughout the system, including special channel features such as sloughs, wetlands and floodplains that provide surface water‐ground water connectivity, will be required to develop effective nitrate management strategies.     

ESTIMATION OF PRE- AND POST-DEVELOPMENT NONPOINT WATER QUALITY LOADINGS1

ABSTRACT: A simple procedure for estimating pre- and post-development water quality loadings from residential communities is discussed. The procedure deals with: (a) gathering basic water quality loading numbers observed by others at several watersheds with various land uses; (b) obtaining the breakdown of proposed land uses at various phases of the community development; and (c) estimating pre- and post-development water quality loading numbers by taking the weighted average of the basic loading numbers in terms of areal coverages of different land uses at various phases of development. Results of this simplified procedure have been verified indirectly by comparing them with the estimates derived independently through a more fundamental but time-consuming approach. The procedure was used to evaluate the anticipated water quality impact of two future residential communities in South Florida by analyzing four water quality parameters: Suspended Soils (SS), Total Nitrogen (TN), Total Phosphorus (TP), and Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD₅). Although computation of loading numbers with mixed land uses is not an exact science at the present time, the recommended approach appears to be the best available technique to analyze quantitatively the water quality-quantity-land use interactions.     

An integration of net imported emissions into climate change targets

There is an international divide between net emissions importers and net emissions exporters, with industrialised nations mainly falling into the former and emerging economies the latter. Integrating emissions transfers into climate policy, so as not to disadvantage export-intensive countries, has been suggested to increase participation in international emissions reduction commitments. Consumption-based scenarios are presented for the UK identifying the geographic and sectorial source of emissions to meet future consumer demands given the current international climate policy landscape. The analysis is applied to the UK yet the discussion is applicable to international climate policy; assigning national responsibility for global emissions reductions; and extending the mitigation potential for net importing countries. Two trajectories for UK consumption emissions are calculated in which (1) international reduction targets are consistent with those pledged today equating to four degrees of temperature rise and (2) international reduction targets achieve a two degree future. By 2050 it is estimated that UK consumption emissions are 40–260% greater than UK territorial emissions depending on the strength of global reduction measures, and assuming the UK meets its 80% reduction in 1990 emissions by 2050 target. Cumulative emissions are presented alongside emissions trajectories, recognising that temperature rise is directly related to every tonne of carbon emitted. Whilst this paper argues that the current UK emissions targets underestimate the UK's contribution to global mitigation for two degrees, it shows how expanding the focus of policy towards consumption introduces new opportunities for reduction strategies at scale. The paper advocates the implementation of consumption-based emissions accounting which reveals underexploited policy interventions and increases the potential to break down barriers that exist between industrialised and emerging economies in international climate policy.