Evaluation of discrete host–parasitoid models for diamondback moth and Diadegma semiclausum field time population density series

The performance of discrete mathematical models to describe the population dynamics of diamondback moth (DBM) (Plutella xylostella L.) and its parasitoid Diadegma semiclausum was investigated. The parameter values for several well-known models (Nicholson–Bailey, Hassell and Varley, Beddington, Free and Lawton, May, Holling type 2, 3 and Getz and Mills functional responses) were estimated. The models were tested on 20 consecutive sets of time series data collected at 14 days interval for pest and parasitoid populations obtained from a highland cabbage growing area in eastern Kenya. Model parameters were estimated from minimized squared difference between the numerical solution of the model equations and the empirical data using Powell's method. Maximum calculated DBM growth rates varied between 0.02 and 0.07. The carrying capacity determined at 16.5 DBM/plant by the Beddington et al. model was within the range of field data. However, all the estimated parameter values relating to the parasitoid, including the instantaneous searching rate (0.07–0.28), per capita searching efficiency (0.20–0.27), search time (5.20–5.33), handling time (0.77–0.90), and parasitism aggregation index (0.33), were well outside the range encountered empirically. All models evaluated for DBM under Durbin–Watson criteria, except the May model, were not autocorrelated with respect to residuals. In contrast, the criteria applied to the parasitoid residuals showed strong autocorrelations. Thus, these models failed to estimate parasitoid dynamics. We conclude that the interactions of the DBM with its parasitoid cannot be explained by any of the models tested. Two factors may be associated with this failure. First, the parasitoid in this integrated biological control system may not be playing a major role in regulating DBM population. Second, and perhaps more likely, poor correlations reflect gross inadequacies in the theoretical assumptions that underlie the existing models.     

Spatio-temporal dissolved oxygen dynamics in the Orbetello lagoon by fuzzy pattern recognition

This paper models the dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics in the Orbetello lagoon as a function of the physico-chemical and ecological system variables, including the submerged vegetation, nutrients, and hydrodynamics. It should be viewed as the concluding sequel to a previous paper describing the dynamics of the lagoon ecosystem [Giusti, E., Marsili-Libelli, S., 2006. An integrated model for the Orbetello lagoon ecosystem, Ecol. Model. 196, 379–394] by introducing the missing DO dynamics. The model considers the oxygen demand originating from the decay of carbonaceous and nitrogenous compounds, as well as photosynthesis and natural reaeration by winds and currents as the oxygen producing processes. With a fixed-parameter set the model could accurately reproduce each single circadian DO cycle, but in the long run it failed to extend this fit and could not accommodate the large DO fluctuations induced by the seasonal variability. In order to enhance the model flexibility, a fuzzy pattern recognition algorithm was designed to classify the circadian DO patterns into four typical behaviours, related to the season, and estimate the corresponding parameters, with the overall model output being a fuzzy combination of these sets. The paper discusses several methods to patch the parameter sets and compares their performance in tracking long-term DO variations. A final assessment of the model validity is obtained by incorporating the whole DO dynamics (model, fuzzy pattern recognition and parameter combination) into the general lagoon model and producing a consistently correct series of DO daily distributions over a yearly cycle. Thus the paper contains both a practical and a methodological aspect. The practical one is the linking of all the lagoon dynamics to the dissolved oxygen kinetics in order to clarify to what extent macroalgae and macrophytes influence the oxygen balance. The methodological aspect consists of extending the validity of short-term models to long time-horizons through a patching technique supported by fuzzy pattern recognition.     

Changes in the Carabid Fauna (Coleoptera, Carabidae) of Meadow Steppes during the Past Decades

Basic trends in the structural dynamics of the meadow-steppe carabid fauna over the period from 1970 to 1997 have been analyzed. Data on changes in the abundance and composition of dominant species are reported. Transformation of carabidocenoses is mainly accounted for by an increased humidity of the climate and the related mesophytization of forest–steppe ecosystems.     

Study of Cause-and-Effect Relationships in the Formation of Biocenoses: Their Use for the Control of Eutrophication

The cause-and-effect relationships existing in freshwater biogeocenoses and changing with time are conventionally divided into three groups: direct, directly mediated, and indirect. The possibility of using the indirect relationships for the control over natural systems is exemplified by a new scheme of eutrophication control and water quality improvement.     

Diversity of Ontogenetic Pathways in Plant Populations

Population heterogeneity in cespitose, fibrous-rooted, brevirhizomatous, stoloniferous, and tap-rooted herbaceous and woody plants is described. This heterogeneity is caused by the multivariant character of plant ontogeny (i.e., its dimensional, morphological, rhythmological, and temporal multiversality), which is regarded as the main adaptation mechanism operating in plant populations because it provides for the diversity of ontogenetic pathways under different ecological conditions.     

The Dynamics of Species Composition and Abundance of Wasps from the Families Pompilidae, Sphecidae, and Vespidae (Hymenoptera: Aculeata) in Successional Pine Biogeocenoses of the Berezinskii Biosphere Reserve

The data on the dynamics of population size and species composition of wasps from the families Pompilidae, Sphecidae, and Vespidae were obtained in the course of long-term studies carried out in successional pine forests of the Berezinskii Biosphere Reserve. The abundance and species diversity of wasps were significantly higher in a polewood forest (40 years) than in a young forest (20 years) and mature moss forest (70 years). In an overgrown ride in the moss pine forest, the composition of dominant wasp species remained relatively stable during the seven-year period of observations, although the number of species and their abundance varied significantly from year to year, depending on the weather.     

大渡河上游地区景观格局与动态

利用卫星遥感资料,对大渡河上游地区金川、壤塘、马尔康三县18665km²土地的景观格局与动态进行分析。结果显示,1995～2000年,研究地区的景观破碎化程度有所下降,多样性增加,斑块形状不规则性增强。整个景观表现出以草地为基质,以林地变动为主要特征。5年间,有林地面积减少53687hm²,大部分转变为灌木林地和疏林地。有林地的空间动态,如斑块密度下降,形状趋于规则等,显示该地区森林减少主要是有计划采伐的结果。耕地面积的下降则表明当地退耕还林、还草的政策措施已初见成效。     

结合态氚在作物生态系统中的形成动态

采用模拟污染物的同位素示踪技术研究了氚水在玉米、大豆和水稻中结合态氚形成的动态过程,并探讨了结合态氚形成的机理.结果表明,土壤(或水)中的氚水通过作物根系吸收进入作物体内,并在作物各部位形成结合态氚;作物体中结合态氚的比活度随时间呈增加趋势;作物籽粒中的结合态氚的比活度约为2～3Bq/g,玉米籽和稻谷中结合态氚的比活度高于其余部位,而大豆籽则与其他部位相当.对3种作物中结合态氚比活度的变化动态进行指数回归分析得:玉米、大豆和水稻中的比活度分别为C_m(t)=1.14(1-e^-0.0509t)、C_s(t)=1.65(^1-e-0.0595t)和C_r>(t)=1.29(^1-e-0.1027t),经方差分析表明,各拟合方程较好地反映了氚水在玉米、大豆和水稻中结合态氚形成的动态.     

Population as an oscillating system

In this paper we present a new approach describing population dynamics based on the view of a population as an oscillating system. To develop a mathematical model of an oscillating population, we applied a third-order differential equation. Our model describes population dynamics within a parametric-temporal continuum, formed by the relative values of population growth and decrease over time. In this paper we also illustrate how our oscillative model effectively compliments the existing suite of models in population dynamics.     

On the use of correlated beta random variables with animal population modelling

We give reasons why demographic parameters such as survival and reproduction rates are often modelled well in stochastic population simulation using beta distributions. In practice, it is frequently expected that these parameters will be correlated, for example with survival rates for all age classes tending to be high or low in the same year. We therefore discuss a method for producing correlated beta random variables by transforming correlated normal random variables, and show how it can be applied in practice by means of a simple example. We also note how the same approach can be used to produce correlated uniform, triangular, and exponential random variables.