Assessing the shelf life of cost‐efficient conservation plans for species at risk across gradients of agricultural land use

High costs of land in agricultural regions warrant spatial prioritization approaches to conservation that explicitly consider land prices to produce protected‐area networks that accomplish targets efficiently. However, land‐use changes in such regions and delays between plan design and implementation may render optimized plans obsolete before implementation occurs. To measure the shelf life of cost‐efficient conservation plans, we simulated a land‐acquisition and restoration initiative aimed at conserving species at risk in Canada's farmlands. We accounted for observed changes in land‐acquisition costs and in agricultural intensity based on censuses of agriculture taken from 1986 to 2011. For each year of data, we mapped costs and areas of conservation priority designated using Marxan. We compared plans to test for changes through time in the arrangement of high‐priority sites and in the total cost of each plan. For acquisition costs, we measured the savings from accounting for prices during site selection. Land‐acquisition costs and land‐use intensity generally rose over time independent of inflation (24–78%), although rates of change were heterogeneous through space and decreased in some areas. Accounting for spatial variation in land price lowered the cost of conservation plans by 1.73–13.9%, decreased the range of costs by 19–82%, and created unique solutions from which to choose. Despite the rise in plan costs over time, the high conservation priority of particular areas remained consistent. Delaying conservation in these critical areas may compromise what optimized conservation plans can achieve. In the case of Canadian farmland, rapid conservation action is cost‐effective, even with moderate levels of uncertainty in how to implement restoration goals.     

基于系统动力学(SD)的民航可持续安全发展决策研究

为了解决民航行业保障能力与发展需求之间的矛盾所带来的安全问题,在对民航行业进行系统分析的基础上,利用系统动力学方法建立了民航可持续安全发展决策流图。通过专家访谈和文献分析法构建了3种政策场景。利用Vensim软件对模型进行了仿真,结果表明:在保障能力不变的条件下,2015年将航班审批率降低0.3,可实现行业的安全目标,但航班量在2015—2025年发展十分缓慢;在发展水平不变的条件下,2015年将保障能力提高0.3,可在2021年实现行业的安全目标;在可持续发展的策略下,在2015—2018年将航班审批率降低0.3、2018年之后将航班审批率提高0.4,在2015年将保障能力提高0.2,可实现我国民航行业的可持续安全发展。     

Restoration planning to guide Aichi targets in a megadiverse country

Ecological restoration has become an important strategy to conserve biodiversity and ecosystems services. To restore 15% of degraded ecosystems as stipulated by the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi target 15, we developed a prioritization framework to identify potential priority sites for restoration in Mexico, a megadiverse country. We used the most current biological and environmental data on Mexico to assess areas of biological importance and restoration feasibility at national scale and engaged stakeholders and experts throughout the process. We integrated 8 criteria into 2 components (i.e., biological importance and restoration feasibility) in a spatial multicriteria analysis and generated 11 scenarios to test the effect of assigning different component weights. The priority restoration sites were distributed across all terrestrial ecosystems of Mexico; 64.1% were in degraded natural vegetation and 6% were in protected areas. Our results provide a spatial guide to where restoration could enhance the persistence of species of conservation concern and vulnerable ecosystems while maximizing the likelihood of restoration success. Such spatial prioritization is a first step in informing policy makers and restoration planners where to focus local and large‐scale restoration efforts, which should additionally incorporate social and monetary cost–benefit considerations.     

A metapopulation approach of the dynamics of arthropods from Mediterranean-type ecosystems

In this paper we developed a general stage-structured, Leslie-type model, suitable to simulate dynamics of soil arthropods under typical Mediterranean conditions. In order to explore arthropods’ life-history strategies in relation to enhanced spatial heterogeneity of the Mediterranean ecosystems, metapopulation characteristics were considered and different habitat quality regimes, in terms of dominant microclimatic conditions, were taken into account. Environmental stochasticity in temperature and humidity was incorporated into the model, and an elasticity analysis was conducted to quantify contribution of different life-history traits to metapopulation growth rate. The application of the model revealed well-known life-cycle characteristics of Mediterranean arthropods, such as seasonally fluctuating population sizes and skewing phenologies, a fact that confirms models’ reliability. Furthermore, the model seems able to elucidate controversial points of the animals’ life-cycle development, such as the long-term maintenance of populations in the field and the underlying mechanisms related to the adjustment to the specific features of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Subpopulations inhabiting various microsites display different dynamics and the interaction between these subpopulations, via dispersion, seems to be able to ensure stochastic equilibrium for the system. Dispersal appears to play a decisive role, allowing arthropods to conform to spatial severities and habitats fragmentation, rescuing individuals and recolonizing previously extinct habitats.     

Modulation of predator-prey interactions by the Allee effect

An Allee effect arising from density-dependent mating success can have significant impacts at the ecosystem level when considered in the context of predator-prey interactions. These are captured by a mathematical model for the exchange of biomass between a structured predator population (continuous weight distribution) and a resource. Because the predator’s mating success affects the amount of resources required for the production of offsprings and their future growth into mature organisms, it influences the flux of biomass between trophic levels. Under simple assumptions, the equations can be reduced to an equivalent unstructured predator-prey model in which the Allee effect modulates the predation rate: the mating probability multiplies the rate of predator growth as well as the rate of resource depletion. Implications of the Allee effect for the bifurcation structure and equilibrium densities are examined. The model is compared to a modified version in which the Allee effect instead modulates the assimilation efficiency, hence the mating probability does not appear in the dynamical equation for the resource density. Both models exhibit qualitatively similar dynamics. However, compared to the model in which the Allee effect modulates predation, the model in which the Allee effect modulates assimilation efficiency predicts (i) unrealistically inefficient resource assimilation when predator density is low, (ii) a higher risk of catastrophic extinction resulting from a change in the parameter controlling the strength of the Allee effect, and (iii) no possibility of an increase in population size when the density dependence is enhanced.     

松花江流域水资源-水污染联合调控方案动态模拟研究

为解决松花江流域水资源消耗与水污染物排放联合调控过程中系统复杂特征难以刻画和系统状态变化难以量化的问题,本文从流域污染物排放的源头即农业、工业、畜禽养殖业及生活(城镇和农村)4个方面展开研究,研究其水资源消耗量和水污染物排放量联合控制的特征和机理过程.通过构建二者的耦合关系,建立了松花江流域水资源-水污染联合控制动态模拟模型.通过对该模型进行验证及设计的4种情景方案的模拟对比,充分说明实施开源、节流、治污、减排的综合措施,才是松花江流域经济社会与水环境系统协调发展的最佳策略.同时结果也证明了本文所提出的联合调控动态模拟模型的合理性和可行性.本研究对于解决松花江流域的水资源优化管理、水污染减排和总量控制具有重要的意义,同时可为制定松花江流域经济发展策略提供参考.     

改性活性炭对废水中甲醛的吸附研究

通过浸渍-焙烧的方法制得铁改性活性炭,并将之应用于废水中甲醛的吸附.分别考察了吸附时间、初始溶液质量浓度、吸附剂投加量对改性活性炭吸附甲醛效果的影响,并研究了铁改性活性炭对甲醛水溶液的等温吸附及动力学.结果表明:在25℃、活性炭投加量为10 g/L、吸附时间为360 min时,铁改性活性炭对甲醛的去除率为91.8％;用准一级、准二级及内扩散动力学模型拟合吸附过程,准二级动力学模型符合该吸附过程;用Langmuir和Freundlich模型描述等温吸附过程,该吸附过程服从Langmuir模型,饱和吸附量为3.396 7mg/g.     

企业员工个体安全行为的人类动力学实证研究

对员工不安全行为的定量分析是理解安全生产事故复杂系统的基础.班组或群体的集体行为往往表现为复杂有序,具有一定的稳定性和适应性;而个体行为尽管有企业制度和纪律的约束,却仍有很大的随机性.为了探究企业员工不安全行为的动力学规律,跟踪观察某大型企业作业员工930 d,将员工相继不安全行为的发生看作排队理论中具有特定时间序列的随机过程.结果表明,就员工个体而言,其不安全行为的间隔时间分布可以用幂律函数近似描述,且幂指数和员工的活跃程度正相关;并进一步分析出企业员工相继不安全行为具有以艾宾浩斯遗忘曲线为特点的“阵发”性;从幂指数角度分析了员工日常作业中的不安全行为的优劣特点,比较了人类活动中的各种随机行为与员工在企业生产中的不安全行为在时间统计上的特性.这表明企业制定安全管理制度及实施安全培训工作都应从人类普遍问题和员工个体特点两方面入手.